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2024 Election Thread

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"How abortion rights sweeping suburbs that went for Trump in 2020 is bad news for Biden."

The thing that baffles me is that he has an incredible economy. Is handling two insanely complicated conflicts as well as could be expected of any president. America troops aren't in any war or conflict. Labor is booming. Like.. he should be running away with Reagan-like numbers but his AGGREGATE polls are worse than any president not named Carter. His numbers are terrible.

I just don't get it and I am honestly very worried about it next year. I support him whole heartedly.
 
It seems more and more obvious to me that CNN simply had a ton of BIDEN DOOOOM! crap in the deck they were going to run no matter what happened. Their coverage looks like this:

Breaking: Beshear wins

Anchor: But Biden is polling badly

Panel: This shows the Democrats need a centrist nominee, not liberal platforms

Breaking: Dems flipping seats in VA and NJ on liberal platforms

Anchor: But Biden is polling badly

Panel: This shows Biden is unpopular, not Democrats

Breaking: Abortion rights win

Anchor: But Biden is polling badly

Panel: This shows Biden is in trouble and choice is irrelevant to that
 
Think that's bad, check out this ****in doozie from the Times

https://bsky.app/profile/nycsouthpaw.../3kdmuzdo25i25

I dont have bluesky so I cant read that...

As for why he is polling bad...its a two fold answer. The first is he isn't doing anything to make serious headlines (short of supporting Israel) so the media needs to find a way to make it seem worse than it is because otherwise the election is worthless. They did the same thing with Obama in 2011 leading into 2012. People don't watch the news when unemployment is under 4%, unions are crushing across the board and we have avoided any sort of downturn quarter after quarter. Add in that the Dems are overperforming all over the place and corporate media is really at a loss as to what to do...they banked on a bad Midterm and a Recession to keep things interesting and it just isn't happening. Plus Universal, WBD, Di$ney are getting killed on their bottom line over the SAG strike so they need revenue and they need it fast!

The other is that aggregate polls are getting their numbers from polls, which are just not accurate in any way anymore. Sure, if you want to poll Boomers on how they feel on issues or Biden yeah then it might be a representative sample which is why he appears to be underperforming. (just like Obama was at the same point) It is also why it seemed that every race was "razor thin" on the margins and they could go either way. And yet, everything pretty much turned out how the stats people (not the pollsters) thought it would jut like the Midterms did. Because polls are meaningless now because no one under the age of 50 is being sampled...

Also keep in mind there is a crisis in the ME which is dividing up his party for the moment. On election day 2024 I dont think that will be the case for many reasons.
 
I dont have bluesky so I cant read that...

As for why he is polling bad...its a two fold answer. The first is he isn't doing anything to make serious headlines (short of supporting Israel) so the media needs to find a way to make it seem worse than it is because otherwise the election is worthless. They did the same thing with Obama in 2011 leading into 2012. People don't watch the news when unemployment is under 4%, unions are crushing across the board and we have avoided any sort of downturn quarter after quarter. Add in that the Dems are overperforming all over the place and corporate media is really at a loss as to what to do...they banked on a bad Midterm and a Recession to keep things interesting and it just isn't happening. Plus Universal, WBD, Di$ney are getting killed on their bottom line over the SAG strike so they need revenue and they need it fast!

The other is that aggregate polls are getting their numbers from polls, which are just not accurate in any way anymore. Sure, if you want to poll Boomers on how they feel on issues or Biden yeah then it might be a representative sample which is why he appears to be underperforming. (just like Obama was at the same point) It is also why it seemed that every race was "razor thin" on the margins and they could go either way. And yet, everything pretty much turned out how the stats people (not the pollsters) thought it would jut like the Midterms did. Because polls are meaningless now because no one under the age of 50 is being sampled...

Also keep in mind there is a crisis in the ME which is dividing up his party for the moment. On election day 2024 I dont think that will be the case for many reasons.

You are absolutely wrong about the polls being wrong and I don't know how many times someone on this board has to tell you that.
 
You are absolutely wrong about the polls being wrong and I don't know how many times someone on this board has to tell you that.

I have showed the evidence enough times that I just laugh when you say that. The Midterms alone proved it. The polls were wrong even day of.

I will say the aggregates are better because they weigh the reliability of the polls. But I believe even they were pimping a massive Red Wave based on "polling". Meanwhile statisticians were telling them they were wrong and they ended up being way closer to reality.

Here let's compromise since we won't agree...I will lighten up my "they are worthless" take and shift it more to "any media driven or used poll like CBS, WAPO, NYT...etc." are worthless but other polls in those aggregates are much more valuable if looked at beyond the surface? Is that better?
 
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Holy cow we turned on CNN for a change and Kepler is right...this panel is terrible and they definitely do not want Biden to run. (Half are GOPers so...) What the actual phuck?

And they are talking about Youngkin for President DGF!

Oh well Virginia is for lovers!
 
Kepler I thought you were just being hyperbolic...CNN obviously had a narrative ready to go and ran with it. Every other sentence is about Bidens polling and wondering why the stuff they rip him for are the things their poll says he struggles with. They are going full pitchbot on the bit.

Faux should sure them for plagarism.
 
I hate that I was right lol

clowns

I stopped paying attention but I swear one of their "experts" said Biden will be in trouble because the people voting this year won't be voting in elections next year.

So if you are keeping score last year and this year the Dems and Biden would struggle because Democrats dont vote in off year elections only Presidentials because they lack motivation AND Biden is in trouble next year because the Dems who are voting in the off year elections wont be the Dems who vote in the Presidential.

That sound you heard was my brain exploding.
 
What is it we always tell people when they try and defend use of the Confederate Flag when they try and tell us that they aren't racist and that it has different meanings?

Look do I think Tlaib is Antisemitic...no I do not. Likely she is telling the truth and she was just saying that because she wants peace. Maybe she and the people she hangs with have re-appropriated that saying into something less vile and evil. But that is not what that phrase means to the majority of the Palestinians or the Muslim world and she knows that. It is not about equality and peace as long as two states exist in what they believe is Palestine. It has been the rallying cry since almost the beginning...Palestine from The Jordan to the Red Sea. (river to the sea) Hell Pro-Palestinian groups actually add the "no two states just one" along with it many times even today.

So you can't have it both ways. We chastise people all the time for saying things they might mean one way that another group has deemed unacceptable because it is a slight against them. Yet it seems you want myself and other Jews to just pretend that 70+ years of violence whilst chanting that phrase disappeared because a few mean it another way? That isn't how it works and to expect it as such would be disingenuous especially when others right now are saying the same thing because they want bloodshed.

And again, you seem upset but the only criticism I had of her was going after Biden. I forgave everything else precisely because in a situation like hers it is hard to see the forest from the trees and even made an excuse why she would go after Biden even though it is counterproductive in every way. Me saying she made a mistake is on tactics, I am not telling her how she should feel. I understand her feelings I just think she is letting her feelings cloud her judgement and that is a human thing to let happen. (every Jew I know is doing it and I point it out to them as well) I am going over the top to show empathy for her. I dont want her attacked or reprimanded, I dont want her primaried! (my original post was a rhetorical question not a call to action) Omar trafficked in the same stuff because of ignorance but I still voted for her twice and will every time she is up for election. I don't think her or Tlaib are evil people who hate Jews or Israelis or anyone else. That doesn't put them above criticism though just because I agree with them on most things.

And the thing is, I also get why you don't agree with me. I am not asking you to. These things will affect me in a different way than they will affect you or your coworkers that are Palestinian. When Antisemitism and Islamophobia are skyrocketing over a conflict none of us want it is important we don't let old hatreds re-bubble to the surface out of pain and fear. That is why I said what I said about Tlaib. Because she might not mean it that way, but plenty of the people who heard her say it do. And just like we said hate groups took the words Trump said and used it as a call to action, the non-peaceful actors (Jews and Palestinians alike) who see her say that are going to use that as a means to justify their actions and feelings. Jews will think she is inciting violence against them purposefully (again I do NOT!) and Palestinians will think she is raising a hand in solidarity for their deeds. This whole thing is on a razors edge and I am sick of seeing these two groups be vile towards each other over conflicts started by and exasperated by outside actors.

I apologize for sounding glib about the health and well-being of your family in Israel. I am definitely grateful they are okay and alive. I hope for safety for all Jews and/or Israelis as well. I know I've made that clear, but I do appreciate your response and be willing to have a conversation about it. It's one of the few times you come from the "vulnerable" perspective, and I think you generally do a solid job of explaining yourself without being condescending. Like I said before, you stay safe as well.
 
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