Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Well to be fair, the polls would reflect it if people actually participated. I remember when the crapazz NYTimes poll came out where less people than show up to D-2 hockey games were supposedly representing all of America's voting tendencies (you know, the one that said Black Voters shifted like 20% towards Trump) the main critique I saw from stats people wasn't necessarily about how few responded, but how much work it likely took to find that many which is why it ended up skewed. It is almost a defense of the Times (and other polls) because it isn't that they are trying to skew it, but demographics make it that way because of the methodology.
And here is the thing, it is showing up all over the place not just in Biden's numbers. (which are the most affected obviously) In the primaries against Haley Trump would poll about 5-7% higher than he would end up receiving and the "will not vote for Trump" vote almost always ended up higher in exit polling (you know, actual people showing up not randos who were dumb enough to answer a blocked number) than it did in mainstream polling. Not just in Iowa where you could blame the weather, not just in NH where Nikki Haley was closer to what the average GOP voter supports than Trump...but almost across the board. The polling was off by that margin quite a bit which lends to the theory it is not a coincidence.
The problem is (just like last year, just like in 2022 and almost every election since Trump won in 216 actually) that the media is not compensating for this discrepancy. (aggregate sites do a better job but even they are a bit behind in their weighting of specific polls which is to be expected) They don't look at the poll and dissect it, they don't use caveats or maybe counteract the findings with interviews of Democratic or Independent voters who are often under-represented in the sampling and they never actually look at what the questions ask and how the follow ups go. For example, and I have used this one before but it is a perfect encapsulation of the problem, in 2022 leading up to the Midterms every poll asked about crime. The majority of respondents across the spectrum were worried about it...and so the media ran with "Polling Shows Crime an Issue For Democrats in the Coming Midterms" or talked about how it is an issue weighing Biden down. The problem is, the next question was usually "do you blame the Dems" or "Who do you hold responsible" and the majority did not blame Biden or the Dems. (still dont btw) Stats people were screaming to high heaven about that for weeks on Twitter and all sorts of non-corporate media but no one listened because it ruined the Red Wave narrative. We saw how that played out. Then the same thing happened last year and you had pundits openly wondering, without a hint of irony, why do they keep getting it wrong? Now even the stats guys like Dave Weigel seem to be bending to narratives because it is the only way to get traction. Its friggin ridiculous.
And will get worse...by June "Minnesota Will Be in Play" according to the geniuses and Trump will probably have an average of 3-4 points on Biden because...reasons. (unless something catastrophic happens) Meanwhile people who actually talk to voters outside of diners in Cousinphucking, Kentucky or Fentanylville, Ohio will see its all BS.
