2024 Bracketology - The Road to Connecticut

[altazo]

Quotes attributed to Cogs from last weeks first round presser. Doubt we'll ever see this video. This is uncharacteristic of him, but he ain't wrong. Bring back the smoke filled room - we need a good ol' fashioned 18-10 WIAC or NCHA team getting a bid (just kidding.) I understand it's hard to debate with the seeding this season, but I just hope only 1 western team advancing to the semifinals isn't the new norm due to budget constraints. Yes, I believe 60 of the 85 D3 programs are in the Eastern region, but it's also true that 14 out of the bottom 15 teams in the PW reside in the east (and 20 of the bottom 22.)

Here’s two quotes: (Pairwise) “It doesn’t work for the West teams and it doesn’t work because we play each other every freaking week. This’ll be the 4th time we see Adrian this month. Who in the East has played four times against Utica, four times against Hobart, and by the way we’ve played against Stevens Point, twice.” “We’re gonna have 4 games against Adrian this month, anybody wanna sign up for that? … and we’re gonna do our best to go in there and be the only west team that goes to the frozen four.” A gesture was then given at the end of the video. Likely will have a word with NCAA.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Quotes attributed to Cogs from last weeks first round presser. Doubt we'll ever see this video. This is uncharacteristic of him, but he ain't wrong. Bring back the smoke filled room - we need a good ol' fashioned 18-10 WIAC or NCHA team getting a bid (just kidding.) I understand it's hard to debate with the seeding this season, but I just hope only 1 western team advancing to the semifinals isn't the new norm due to budget constraints. Yes, I believe 60 of the 85 D3 programs are in the Eastern region, but it's also true that 14 out of the bottom 15 teams in the PW reside in the east (and 20 of the bottom 22.)

Here’s two quotes: (Pairwise) “It doesn’t work for the West teams and it doesn’t work because we play each other every freaking week. This’ll be the 4th time we see Adrian this month. Who in the East has played four times against Utica, four times against Hobart, and by the way we’ve played against Stevens Point, twice.” “We’re gonna have 4 games against Adrian this month, anybody wanna sign up for that? … and we’re gonna do our best to go in there and be the only west team that goes to the frozen four.” A gesture was then given at the end of the video. Likely will have a word with NCAA.

His argument proves the exact oppsite. The more you play teams, the more accurate the PWR is. If anything, the west is more accurately seeded amongst themselves than the east is amongst itself. Quite simply, Tim does not understand the math. (If you want to say the PWR is flawed comparing east vs. west because of little crossover, then I will listen. That's a valid point. But his point is lunacy.)

I have had private discussions with him in the past in bars in Lake Placid. Great guy. Bought me many beers. But he doesn't understand how PWR works.

As for one western team in the semis, that has been the norm over the years. Look it up.

 

[altazo]

His argument proves the exact oppsite. The more you play teams, the more accurate the PWR is. If anything, the west is more accurately seeded amongst themselves than the east is amongst itself. Quite simply, Tim does not understand the math. (If you want to say the PWR is flawed comparing east vs. west because of little crossover, then I will listen. That's a valid point. But his point is lunacy.)

I have had private discussions with him in the past in bars in Lake Placid. Great guy. Bought me many beers. But he doesn't understand how PWR works.

As for one western team in the semis, that has been the norm over the years. Look it up.

We largely agree. I don't think this years' tournament was seeded incorrectly. I don't fully understand how the PW works either. For instance, Adrian was near the top all season while going winless against Utica and having their best non-NCAA tournament win of the season against SNC (who they were 1-2 against before last night.) I thought it would have been reasonable for SNC and Adrian to have been swapped in the PW following the Harris Cup championship game (SNC then had the higher winning %, and was 2-1 head to head vs. Adrain) but I guess all of SNC's OT victories this season really penalized them. But, I don't need to look up western teams in the semis - I remember several occasions where there have been two western teams in.

And just to add: Yes, many many more eastern region teams have advanced to the semis through the years, and yet only twice in the last 20 seasons has it been an all-east final. Only 6 times in the history of the D3 championship has it been an all-east final. 7 times in the history of the tournament it has been an all-west final.

 

[JSicedog]

I would like to hear Coghlins alternative that he is proposing. Does he prefer the smoke filled room? Win your games

 

[altazo]

I would like to hear Coghlins alternative that he is proposing. Does he prefer the smoke filled room? Win your games

I have no idea. My guess is he was just lamenting the fact that the west is seemingly a blood bath every year. Not his best look, and I'd guess he regrets it deeply.

 

[Lord_Zubin]

I would like to hear Coghlins alternative that he is proposing. Does he prefer the smoke filled room? Win your games

From what I can tell the pairwise was started in 2018-2019 and all 5 of his national titles were B4 then and 0 titles afterwards so yes he probably does prefer the smoke filled room.

 

[Tom Coughlin]

Quotes attributed to Cogs from last weeks first round presser. Doubt we'll ever see this video.

https://twitter.com/rickybubby26/status/1766998090332917881

 

[Russell Jaslow]

We largely agree. I don't think this years' tournament was seeded incorrectly. I don't fully understand how the PW works either. For instance, Adrian was near the top all season while going winless against Utica and having their best non-NCAA tournament win of the season against SNC (who they were 1-2 against before last night.) I thought it would have been reasonable for SNC and Adrian to have been swapped in the PW following the Harris Cup championship game (SNC then had the higher winning %, and was 2-1 head to head vs. Adrain) but I guess all of SNC's OT victories this season really penalized them. But, I don't need to look up western teams in the semis - I remember several occasions where there have been two western teams in.

The more and more I'm thinking about, and listening to other people, I think we need Tim Danehy to apply his math magic and rethink and recalculate a way to compare regions against each other who normally don't crossover that much.

But PWR doesn't need to be thrown out. It just needs its flaws corrected.

(BTW, as a side note, I really hate the idea that OT wins/losses count differently. I don't care if they are played differently -- three aside. A win is a win, a loss is a loss. No other sport handles this differently. Football has a bizarre OT, but they don't care. Baseball now has the ghost runner (does college do this?) and they don't care. Hockey is stupid thinking they are special in this regard.)

 

[Russell Jaslow]

From what I can tell the pairwise was started in 2018-2019 and all 5 of his national titles were B4 then and 0 titles afterwards so yes he probably does prefer the smoke filled room.

LOL.

But I can give an example back in that era -- off the record, in a bar -- when Tim went just as bonkers over the selection/braketing in the smoke filled rooms.

 

[Fishman'81]

There's absolutely no reason to whine about anything regarding this year's FF.

It's completely perfect, vis-a-vis the PW.

What else could a reasonable person possibly want, via the process..? More smoke?

 

[altazo]

From what I can tell the pairwise was started in 2018-2019 and all 5 of his national titles were B4 then and 0 titles afterwards so yes he probably does prefer the smoke filled room.

Yeah, maybe that's it. But, in the 4 tournaments we've had since that 18-19 season, SNC has qualified for 3 of them.

 

[Fishman'81]

I would like to hear Coghlins alternative that he is proposing. Does he prefer the smoke filled room? Win your games

And, especially, the ones that bolster your PW/RPI.

Conference tournament games shouldn't count any more than any other games, nor any less.

But the AQ's throw a wrench in the works.

Can't complain about this season, though. We are seeing the most deserving teams in the mix.

 

[Fishman'81]

The more and more I'm thinking about, and listening to other people, I think we need Tim Danehy to apply his math magic and rethink and recalculate a way to compare regions against each other who normally don't crossover that much.

But PWR doesn't need to be thrown out. It just needs its flaws corrected.

(BTW, as a side note, I really hate the idea that OT wins/losses count differently. I don't care if they are played differently -- three aside. A win is a win, a loss is a loss. No other sport handles this differently. Football has a bizarre OT, but they don't care. Baseball now has the ghost runner (does college do this?) and they don't care. Hockey is stupid thinking they are special in this regard.)

The only better statistical model above the PWR is the KRACH, and there's almost no meaningful difference there anyway, at the end of the day.

We're good right now.