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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather

Over/under year of first Cat 7: 2050

4: 130-154
5: 155-184
6: 185-219
7: 220+
 
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Kepler said:
Over/under year of first Cat 7: 2050

4: 130-154
5: 155-184
6: 185-219
7: 220+
Click to expand...

I'll take the over. Only because it's extremely hard for me to fathom an EF5 tornado the size of a hurricane eyewall.

edit: Jesus. Apparently Patricia hit 215 sustained in the pacific. If you're talking strictly Atlantic, then Allen in 1980 hit 190 sustained. Even that is breathtaking.

so maybe the under?

edit 2: ok. Part of my problem is that I think of the worst tornadoes as those that scour the earth, nothing vertical left including grass. I would guess that's closer to the top end of the EF5 recorded tornado speeds. 200 mph, while devastating in every sense, doesn't necessarily erase everything in its path.

so when I see 220 mph "cat 7" and see that's north of EF5, I immediately think of the worst tornadoes from the news.
 
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dxmnkd316 said:
I'll take the over. Only because it's extremely hard for me to fathom an EF5 tornado the size of a hurricane eyewall.

edit: Jesus. Apparently Patricia hit 215 sustained in the pacific. If you're talking strictly Atlantic, then Allen in 1980 hit 190 sustained. Even that is breathtaking.

so maybe the under?

edit 2: ok. Part of my problem is that I think of the worst tornadoes as those that scour the earth, nothing vertical left including grass. I would guess that's closer to the top end of the EF5 recorded tornado speeds. 200 mph, while devastating in every sense, doesn't necessarily erase everything in its path.

so when I see 220 mph "cat 7" and see that's north of EF5, I immediately think of the worst tornadoes from the news.
Click to expand...

I'm waiting for the first 200+ MPH mega-hurricane to hit Miami/FLL, or Tampa, or Jacksonville. It's coming in our lifetimes, and you know that every affected "DoN't TrEaD oN mE!1!!!11!" Floriduh conservative will immediately demand a federal bailout.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
I'll take the over. Only because it's extremely hard for me to fathom an EF5 tornado the size of a hurricane eyewall.

edit: Jesus. Apparently Patricia hit 215 sustained in the pacific. If you're talking strictly Atlantic, then Allen in 1980 hit 190 sustained. Even that is breathtaking.

so maybe the under?

edit 2: ok. Part of my problem is that I think of the worst tornadoes as those that scour the earth, nothing vertical left including grass. I would guess that's closer to the top end of the EF5 recorded tornado speeds. 200 mph, while devastating in every sense, doesn't necessarily erase everything in its path.

so when I see 220 mph "cat 7" and see that's north of EF5, I immediately think of the worst tornadoes from the news.
Click to expand...

The highest wind speed ever recorded on earth was at 302 mph (later revised to 321 mph after additional analysis) during the 1999 Bridge Creek-Moore Tornado in Oklahoma. However, the official "record" does not count tornadic events so the 254 mph from Cyclone Olivia in 1996 (which struck Northern/Western Australia) still holds the official record.

There are 9 tornados that have had wind speeds above that 254. With 3 above 300 mph. 4 of the top 5 and 6 of the 9 were in Oklahoma. Those speeds were as recorded by mobile doppler and other mobile radar units. Some of those 9 were classified as only EF3/EF4 because, while those mobile radars indicated extremely high wind speed, damage on the ground was not sufficient enough to rate higher.

Though there is no official observation, it is also believed, based on damage and other factors, that the 1925 Tri-State Tornado that hit Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana also had 300+ mph winds. There are others that are believed to have had 300+ mph winds as well.

The caveat here is that the windspeeds are not at ground level, often 100-400 feet up, so those winds are not what is causing the actual damage typically.
 
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Proud2baLaker said:
There are 9 tornados that have had wind speeds above that 254. With 3 above 300 mph. 4 of the top 5 and 6 of the 9 were in Oklahoma. Those speeds were as recorded by mobile doppler and other mobile radar units. Some of those 9 were classified as only EF3/EF4 because, while those mobile radars indicated extremely high wind speed, damage on the ground was not sufficient enough to rate higher.
Click to expand...

I hear it's a terrific place to build a supertall. ;)
 
From what I read (Browsed. While inebriated.) the alley has shifted east out of Oklahoma, and now it's Arkansas and Missouri that will get pounded.
 
Kepler said:
From what I read (Browsed. While inebriated.) the alley has shifted east out of Oklahoma, and now it's Arkansas and Missouri that will get pounded.
Click to expand...

I've read the same thing. I suspect there's some, or even a good amount of truth to that.

I still wouldn't build skyscrapers in Oklahoma given it's one of the most seismically active areas not on the pacific coast.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
I still wouldn't build skyscrapers in Oklahoma given it's one of the most seismically active areas not on the pacific coast.
Click to expand...

Huh. I had no idea of that or this.

After a major earthquake in the New Madrid or Wabash Valley seismic zone, what changes to the landscape would we most likely see?

Deformation of the land surface directly over a fault that moves may manifest as very localized uplift or subsidence, or lateral distortions of up to several meters (for a very large earthquake). Shaking can cause ground failure of various types, including liquefaction and landsliding. These would have significant effect on the landscape in terms of damming streams, spewing sand and mud into fields, and causing areas near bluffs and rivers to slide and form a broken up surface.

Can you explain liquefaction? What conditions would increase or decrease the amount of liquefaction?

Liquefaction occurs when loose, sandy, water saturated soils are strongly shaken. The soils lose their capacity to bear any weight and can flow like a liquid. This process is accompanied by high pore water pressures that can force sand, water, and mud upward, often forming the signature sand blows of the New Madrid seismic zone. Many factors affect how susceptible materials are to liquefaction, but some of the most important requirements are the degree of water saturation, the size of the grains, and how well cemented they are.

After the 1811/1812 earthquakes there were reports that the Mississippi River flowed backward. Can you explain this phenomenon and what is it called?

One of the 1812 earthquakes occurred on a fault that actually crossed the river three times. The uplift along this fault formed a scarp or cliff that caused both a dam and waterfalls at different locations. The damming of the river would have temporarily backed the river up, which may account for the descriptions of the river boat pilots.
Click to expand...

Yikes.
 
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