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2024-25: D3whky
- Thread starter VTpucksouteast
- Start date
The "math only" option is a joke. The crossover play is not there. When are they going to learn. Committees suck but it's light years better than this bulls***.
I guess my complaint this week is that Oswego dropped from #3 to #8 because of a loss to Amherst, but Amherst losing to the team currently #29 (after the bump from beating Amherst) only drops one spot. Doesn't seem to be much consistently. Yes, I know it's not that simple, but it also seems the NESCAC has some sort of cheat code on the women's side that stacks the numbers in their favor.
Oz is up to #5 after beating Utica. UWRF down to #9 after losing to GAC.
1. Midd
2. Bowdoin
3. Amherst
4. Augsburg
5. Oswego
6. Plattsburgh
7. GAC
8. Endicott
9. UWRF
10. Cortland
The SUNYAC is getting closer to being a 2 bid league.
Oswego replacing UWRF as #5 helps both GAC and Plattsburgh be in a position for Pool C. Before this update if both Augsburg and Plattsburgh lost their conference the Cards would be out, and GAC would also have been out if its a Hamline over Augsburg MIAC
VTpucksouteast
Member
Massive results tonight:
Midd gets the OT win at home over Plattsburgh. Game started with good pace, but Middlebury got into their shell once they tied it early 2nd. From then on, it was a very hard game to watch, but they pulled it out with less than 2 min left in OT.
Oswego beats Utica 3-0 on the road in a very even game. Levy was the difference per usual.
GAC hangs on to win at #1 River falls on the road, 3-2. RF was the better team, but not by much.
The new NPI rankings are… something.
The #1 team in River Falls would be out of the tournament now. Dropped 4 spots for losing a one goal game at home. Also, GAC barely moved up at all. They sit at #7 but are barely ahead of Endicott who will most likely jump them soon. So all of that for a one spot jump.
They have got to do something about this.
Oswego on the other hand had a road win against #19 and jumped 3 spots.
Midd gets the OT win at home over Plattsburgh. Game started with good pace, but Middlebury got into their shell once they tied it early 2nd. From then on, it was a very hard game to watch, but they pulled it out with less than 2 min left in OT.
Oswego beats Utica 3-0 on the road in a very even game. Levy was the difference per usual.
GAC hangs on to win at #1 River falls on the road, 3-2. RF was the better team, but not by much.
The new NPI rankings are… something.
The #1 team in River Falls would be out of the tournament now. Dropped 4 spots for losing a one goal game at home. Also, GAC barely moved up at all. They sit at #7 but are barely ahead of Endicott who will most likely jump them soon. So all of that for a one spot jump.
They have got to do something about this.
Oswego on the other hand had a road win against #19 and jumped 3 spots.
VTpucksouteast
Member
I just can not believe this River Falls team is at #9
They have one against SMU and 2 guaranteed against UWEC plus probably another in the WIAC tourney.
As much as the game has grown its surprising there aren't more WIAC schools playing WHKY that the conference gets its autobid.
Scott, it's not even close, very little interest within the UW schools in expanding hockey. UW Stout which has a men's team isn't even considering it. With the financial challenges that currently exist and bridges burned in the past the WIAC will remain a remote island without an auto bid.
I second what @VTpucksouteast said above. How RF falls so much and GAC barely goes up at all for that performance is wild on its own. The NPI system is a joke for the west. Here's a prime example:
After Tuesday, Gustavus was #7 in the NPI and 8 points above #8 Endicott.
Wednesday, there was ONE game on the schedule. Keene State hosting Castleton. Castleton won 3-1.
Now, Endicott is 20 POINTS back ABOVE Gustavus. Keep in mind, Endicott hasn't played either of these teams.
The system is inherently rigged. I know how this math works, and the more games are played, the East will continue to jump the West teams. When 7 conferences play each other, the data is much more accurate than when three conferences are doing there own thing halfway across the country.
What's sad is that nothing will change. As long as it's the East getting the massive advantage, nothing will change. If it was the other way around, they'd call an emergency midseason meaning and f*** with the numbers. They CANNOT keep relying on just math. It DOES NOT WORK.
After Tuesday, Gustavus was #7 in the NPI and 8 points above #8 Endicott.
Wednesday, there was ONE game on the schedule. Keene State hosting Castleton. Castleton won 3-1.
Now, Endicott is 20 POINTS back ABOVE Gustavus. Keep in mind, Endicott hasn't played either of these teams.
The system is inherently rigged. I know how this math works, and the more games are played, the East will continue to jump the West teams. When 7 conferences play each other, the data is much more accurate than when three conferences are doing there own thing halfway across the country.
What's sad is that nothing will change. As long as it's the East getting the massive advantage, nothing will change. If it was the other way around, they'd call an emergency midseason meaning and f*** with the numbers. They CANNOT keep relying on just math. It DOES NOT WORK.
VTpucksouteast
Member
Massive series for the stretch run. I'm picking Bethel to upset GAC at least once this weekend. The Royals are sneaky good, and Gustavus is up and down.
This weekend has shaken up the NPI:
1. Middlebury*
2. Amherst^
3. Augsburg*
4. Gustavus Adolphus^
5. Bowdoin^
6. Plattsburgh^
7. Endicott*
8. UW-River Falls
9. Oswego
10. Cortland*
11. Adrian
12. St. Norbert*
13. Colby
14. St. Mary's
15. Wilkes*
...
18. Nazareth*
19. Norwich*
*Pool A if season ended today
^Pool C if season ended today
1. Middlebury*
2. Amherst^
3. Augsburg*
4. Gustavus Adolphus^
5. Bowdoin^
6. Plattsburgh^
7. Endicott*
8. UW-River Falls
9. Oswego
10. Cortland*
11. Adrian
12. St. Norbert*
13. Colby
14. St. Mary's
15. Wilkes*
...
18. Nazareth*
19. Norwich*
*Pool A if season ended today
^Pool C if season ended today
The SUNYAC website lists Cortland at the top of their standings, I thought Oz would be the leader too...
Attachments
Chalk scenario, no upsets....how likely?
UWRF runs the table and beats UWEC 3 more times (including post-season), do they have enough juice to jump past Bowdoin and/or an at-large SUNYAC team into Pool C?
The top 4 run the table until their conference tourneys and a loss to each other in the finals has minimal impact on their NPI status
One of Adrian/St. Norberts gets the autobid post-conference tourney
Endicott manages to win their conference tourney this season after dominating the CNE regular season...
The highest rated SUNYAC team (Plattsburgh) gets the conference tourney autobid...
First four out - Bowdoin, Oswego, Cortland, Adrian/St. Norberts? - awful as they all deserve a spot.
Four West Teams (and two in the top 4) - Augsburg, Gustavus, UWRF and Adrian/SNB? - If they limit first round travel you could have teams 3 teams in the top 5 playing for one spot in the Frozen Four.
Any upsets or hiccups can really change the dynamic....
It's so precarious, no margin for error for so many of these teams.....
The committee has said they are committed to the top 4 teams getting a bye. The field I noted would put that commitment to the test.
The SUNYAC will be interesting. Cortland and Oswego have two more regular season games against each other and then we have SUNYACs where we will likely get 2 of 3 of PLA vs Oz, Cort vs Oz and PLA vs Cort
Plattsburgh is 1-1-1 vs Oswego and 1-2 vs Cortland this season (only just snapped a 4 game losing streak to Cortland dating back to last season). They top the NPI of the three but head to head they seem the most vulnerable.
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There is no way Oswego isn’t in first. They go have more points than Cortland and a game in hand. Not even sure how the SUNYAC page is sorting the teams at this point.
The new USCHO poll is out and while Midd is back at #1 the west now has 4 of the top 6 rankings
1. Middlebury
2. UW-River Falls
3. Amherst
4. GAC
5. Adrian
6. Augsburg
7. Oswego
8. Plattsburgh
9. Cortland
10. Bowdoin
11. SNC
12. Endicott
13. Utica
14. UWEC
15. Nazareth
1. Middlebury
2. UW-River Falls
3. Amherst
4. GAC
5. Adrian
6. Augsburg
7. Oswego
8. Plattsburgh
9. Cortland
10. Bowdoin
11. SNC
12. Endicott
13. Utica
14. UWEC
15. Nazareth
Endicott trucked both St. Norbert's and Bowdoin. No respect for the Gulls!
I'll bite, why would there be love for Bowdoin? Because they beat Middlebury 2-1 on 13 shots? Because they play in the greatest conference known to women's hockey, LOL? Or maybe it's because they went 3-4 in their last 7 games.
I'm not trying to disrespect their season, 13-4 is very good. Given they lost to Endicott who's ranked below them, ranking seems about right until they get the train back on the track. Maybe they're a top 5 team, but not really playing like it right now.
The interesting thing is, this appears to be a wide open race this year on both ends. In the West there isn't a dominant team or teams for the first time in years. I could see UWRF losing to Saint Mary's tomorrow, it wouldn't take much. UWRF will out shoot them, but they'd only need about a dozen shots on the RF goalie to get one or two in.
Augsburg has the most complete team and the best odds to come out of the West, but they're beatable and can be streaky on the offensive end. Watched the SNC game vs Augsburg a few weeks ago and they hung with them throughout. Augsburg has also dropped a few on the way against GAC and to a suspect UWEC team.
It's not surprising that the poll rankings and PairWise are all over the place. Having directly watched the inconsistancy in the West however, I think the champ comes out of the East as much as it pains me to say that. No one in the West seems to have that killer instinct for a long run. Talent yes there's a lot of it on multiple teams, but consistancy and shut down goal tending no I haven't found it.
I'm not trying to disrespect their season, 13-4 is very good. Given they lost to Endicott who's ranked below them, ranking seems about right until they get the train back on the track. Maybe they're a top 5 team, but not really playing like it right now.
The interesting thing is, this appears to be a wide open race this year on both ends. In the West there isn't a dominant team or teams for the first time in years. I could see UWRF losing to Saint Mary's tomorrow, it wouldn't take much. UWRF will out shoot them, but they'd only need about a dozen shots on the RF goalie to get one or two in.
Augsburg has the most complete team and the best odds to come out of the West, but they're beatable and can be streaky on the offensive end. Watched the SNC game vs Augsburg a few weeks ago and they hung with them throughout. Augsburg has also dropped a few on the way against GAC and to a suspect UWEC team.
It's not surprising that the poll rankings and PairWise are all over the place. Having directly watched the inconsistancy in the West however, I think the champ comes out of the East as much as it pains me to say that. No one in the West seems to have that killer instinct for a long run. Talent yes there's a lot of it on multiple teams, but consistancy and shut down goal tending no I haven't found it.