Geneseo is at 4th right now and is a lock for a birth even with one more loss. Plattsburgh is at ninth right now. One more loss should not knock them out but probably down one ore two spots.. PWR does not count playoff or regular season any different.
This also assumes the conference leaders above them (Plymouth State & UW-Stevens Point for instance) don't lose in their tournament and need an at-large too. I feel Plattsburgh needs to win this weekend to have an at-large chance. Owsego is not loved by the Pairwise and I feel a loss to them will knock Plattsburgh down. The last lost to the Lakers knocked Plattsburgh down to 16th in the Pairwise... Geneseo feels like they'll be in no matter what happens this weekend.