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2023-2024 PWR, KRACH, GRaNT, and other acronyms

TonyTheTiger20

TonyTheTiger20

#SOAR
My newest calculators are now live for the 2023-2024 season. Here is a link to everything, including historical rankings: https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...ng-calculators

Here are individual links:

2023-2024 Pairwise: https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...rwise-rankings
2023-2024 KRACH: https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...ach-calculator
2023-2024 GRaNT: https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...puter-rankings

I also have a Men's GRaNT calculator out there, for those who care about dudes: https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...puter-rankings

As always, let me know if you spot any issues and I'll take a look and hopefully resolve as soon as I get a chance. Thanks!
 
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Top 12 in today's uscho.com PWR:
1. Ohio State 16-2-0 (top WCHA team)
2. Minnesota 16-3-1
3. Clarkson 19-1-2 (top ECAC team)
4. Colgate 17-3-1
5. Wisconsin 16-4-0
6. Quinnipiac 19-3-1
7. St. Cloud State 13-6-1
8. Cornell 13-3-1
9. UMD 11-7-2
10. St. Lawrence 13-8-0
11. Princeton 11-5-2
12. UConn 11-6-2 (top HEA team)

There have been some moves in PWR. Looks like the WCHA standings are, in descending order, Ohio State, U of M, Wisconsin, St. Cloud State, and UMD. Switching places, Clarkson defeated Colgate 1-0. They are now 0.5 point behind Colgate in the ECAC standings. Both Clarkson's ties came to opponents outside the rankings, and their OT loss was to Cornell on Friday, but they have the best record. It shows endurance to either win or take the game to OT every night. Another result leading to PWR changes was Quinnipiac's win and tie vs UMD (2-1 and 2-2).

It's quite possible that this is around the point in the season when the poll is going to increasingly reflect the Pairwise. As for the tournament (though it's early), by current standings, if the top-pairwise-ranked teams win their auto-bids, Cornell would be the last at-large bid. The ECAC and WCHA would each put in 4 teams along with UConn (HEA), Penn State (CHA), and LIU (NEWHA).
 
Folks have been discussing in the Patty Kaz and Ohio State threads why Ohio State's strength of schedule is currently showing as #3 on USCHO while Wisconsin's is #1. (And St. Michael's is #2!) To add to that, the comparison between Colgate and Clarkson is also intriguing.

USCHO has Clarkson with #4 strength of schedule and Colgate #6. Currently, it's flipped on BC Interruption, with Colgate at #4 strength of schedule and Clarkson #7.
Colgate's non-conference: Ohio State (1st pairwise), Penn State (15th), Mercyhurst, UMD (9th), Syracuse, and Maine once and Bemidji State once
Clarkson's non-conference: Merrimack, BC (17th), Vermont, Robert Morris, St. Lawrence (7th), and Syracuse
Though most of their schedules are similar to each other, Colgate has played the top pairwise team Ohio State.
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Current top 8 in PWR: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Clarkson, Colgate, Minnesota, Cornell, St. Lawrence, and Quinnipiac - PWR 2-5 are very close in NPI. UMD is also just on the cusp and will play Minnesota this weekend.
 
How much of it is the head to head? - ie Wisconsin played Ohio State, which is "harder" than Ohio State playing Wisconsin.
 
BowWowWow said:
Folks have been discussing in the Patty Kaz and Ohio State threads why Ohio State's strength of schedule is currently showing as #3 on USCHO while Wisconsin's is #1. (And St. Michael's is #2!) To add to that, the comparison between Colgate and Clarkson is also intriguing.

USCHO has Clarkson with #4 strength of schedule and Colgate #6. Currently, it's flipped on BC Interruption, with Colgate at #4 strength of schedule and Clarkson #7.
Colgate's non-conference: Ohio State (1st pairwise), Penn State (15th), Mercyhurst, UMD (9th), Syracuse, and Maine once and Bemidji State once
Clarkson's non-conference: Merrimack, BC (17th), Vermont, Robert Morris, St. Lawrence (7th), and Syracuse
Though most of their schedules are similar to each other, Colgate has played the top pairwise team Ohio State.
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Current top 8 in PWR: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Clarkson, Colgate, Minnesota, Cornell, St. Lawrence, and Quinnipiac - PWR 2-5 are very close in NPI. UMD is also just on the cusp and will play Minnesota this weekend.
Click to expand...

Note that Grant is 'behind' in updating his underlying database, so his numbers are 'through games of Feb 3rd". That wouldn't explain why USCHO's numbers look the way they are, just pointing it out.

(Also not a criticism of Grant; it must be quite a chore to keep it all up-to-date.)
 
Yeah I've been away from home without my laptop since essentially February 8th, so it's been an unusually lengthy time between updates haha -- I should have everything caught up on Wednesday!

I also need to start putting together the predictor, I think tournaments start in like literally a week in a half, yikes...
 
TonyTheTiger20 said:
Yeah I've been away from home without my laptop since essentially February 8th, so it's been an unusually lengthy time between updates haha -- I should have everything caught up on Wednesday!

I also need to start putting together the predictor, I think tournaments start in like literally a week in a half, yikes...
Click to expand...

How 'dangerous' would it be to open up editing the database to 'the public', Wikipedia style? I did a couple entries on the web site yesterday, just to watch the numbers change. But of course, the changes weren't permanent.
 
robertearle said:
How 'dangerous' would it be to open up editing the database to 'the public', Wikipedia style? I did a couple entries on the web site yesterday, just to watch the numbers change. But of course, the changes weren't permanent.
Click to expand...

Probably not likely worth it, really; as you've discovered you can plug in the results on your local computer to get up to date results, but yeah they don't save.

There should be a button on the thing somewhere that will let you download the file to use offline where you can save your changes. If you're interested I can also email you the offline file as well.
 
TonyTheTiger20 said:
Probably not likely worth it, really; as you've discovered you can plug in the results on your local computer to get up to date results, but yeah they don't save.

There should be a button on the thing somewhere that will let you download the file to use offline where you can save your changes. If you're interested I can also email you the offline file as well.
Click to expand...

No, I was mostly offering some help doing the tedious part from me and others if you felt like you needed or wanted it.
 
I actually could conceivably add rights to a select group of people to help keep it up. Maybe I'll do that next year actually -- I like that idea!
 
Alright, I updated my numbers tonight. A few observations:

(1) USCHO has started removing *good losses* from games kind of out of nowhere. This functions sort of like removing bad wins, except if you lose to a team and it raises your NPI, USCHO is omitting the game. It doesn't say anything about doing that in this year's pre-championships manual, so either USCHO just kind of did that for funsies or (more likely) the NCAA is doing it now but it's missing from the manual. I'm looking into it. Nonetheless I added the functionality to my calculator with an on/off switch in case that's incorrect and I need to revert it.

(2) USCHO's Pairwise Rankings are missing the Head-To-Head and Common Opponents portions of the calculations. Essentially this is making their Pairwise match their NPI. It's close, but not quite right. I passed on word and I think they're working on it.

(3) My NPI numbers are almost identical to USCHO's with a couple weird exceptions:
-My rankings have Clarkson's NPI a bit lower than USCHO's
-My rankings have Clarkson's QWB a bit lower than USCHO's (these two things may be related but I'm not sure yet)
-My rankings have St. Michaels' (of all teams) NPI a bit higher than USCHO's. This seems unrelated to the other two since these two teams didn't play each other.

I'm digging a little more into #3. I'm not ruling out that USCHO has something wrong in their rankings lol but yeah... not sure yet. Could definitely be something I have messed up. Nonetheless, the difference is somewhat small right now. Hopefully I can get it figured out one way or another before the conference tournaments.
 
Wisconsin can't catch Ohio State with a sweep. Wisconsin if they get swept should just barely stay in 2nd in the Pairwise since Colgate and Clarkson aren't playing, although it would be pretty close.

So basically after this weekend it should still be 1 OSU, 2 UW regardless of the results, but the gap can be pretty huge or small depending on what happens.
 
TonyTheTiger20 said:
Wisconsin can't catch Ohio State with a sweep. Wisconsin if they get swept should just barely stay in 2nd in the Pairwise since Colgate and Clarkson aren't playing, although it would be pretty close.

So basically after this weekend it should still be 1 OSU, 2 UW regardless of the results, but the gap can be pretty huge or small depending on what happens.
Click to expand...

When I guessed earlier this week (I think it was) that Wisconsin could still catch Ohio State for #1, I was going past this week and through the WCHA tournament; UW winning the tournament - two more quality wins - and an Ohio State loss to Duluth/St Cloud or to UW. Quite optimistic on my part. (I also worry about UW falling all the way to #5 should things not go so well.) Still a good number of quality wins and losses to be doled out; fewer in the ECAC, to be sure, but at least four of their top five still have a loss coming.

Thanks again for the work that goes into this.
 
robertearle said:
When I guessed earlier this week (I think it was) that Wisconsin could still catch Ohio State for #1, I was going past this week and through the WCHA tournament; UW winning the tournament - two more quality wins - and an Ohio State loss to Duluth/St Cloud or to UW. Quite optimistic on my part. (I also worry about UW falling all the way to #5 should things not go so well.) Still a good number of quality wins and losses to be doled out; fewer in the ECAC, to be sure, but at least four of their top five still have a loss coming.

Thanks again for the work that goes into this.
Click to expand...

That's where I brain went....if UW wins the WCHA tourney maybe they still could get to #1, but honestly I'm plenty ok with staying at 2/3.
 
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