2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

[dxmnkd316]

Holy hell!!!!!!

Boebert might lose!!!

 

[jericho]

Holy crap! With 15% in Castelli leads Stefanik 58.5-41.5. The fact that she doesn’t have this wrapped up is a GREAT sign.

 

[dxmnkd316]

What are you seeing in CO-3 (Boebert district)? Looks like with about 1/2 to 2/3 of the vote in, she's losing by about 6-7 points. I haven't seen it discussed anywhere yet, so I presume she will win handily. But, I was curious what you were seeing.

I wish I had loaded some of these house races but focused on getting the Senate and Governors in. Every single race is two separate queries to the website and it's a pain in the ass to setup. I should ahve done this earlier, but the problem was that I wouldn't know what formulas are incorrect until I started seeing data stream in. As it turns out, I had to spend about two hours now getting formulas fixed. NBC reports percentages as 54.2% instead of .542 which.. whatever, but I had to update half a dozen formulas for each race and then apply it to the entire worksheet. It's a pain..


ANyways, I think we have a chance of holding the house based on Boebert alone. That's a big big big big surprise for me.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Holy crap! With 15% in Castelli leads Stefanik 58.5-41.5. The fact that she doesn’t have this wrapped up is a GREAT sign.

Between this and Boebert, you've got some REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALLY worrying signs if you're a GOP operative.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Holy hell!!!!!!

Boebert might lose!!!

Are you able to calculate the margin Frisch would need to outperform down the stretch?

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

I wish I had loaded some of these house races but focused on getting the Senate and Governors in. Every single race is two separate queries to the website and it's a pain in the *** to setup. I should ahve done this earlier, but the problem was that I wouldn't know what formulas are incorrect until I started seeing data stream in. As it turns out, I had to spend about two hours now getting formulas fixed. NBC reports percentages as 54.2% instead of .542 which.. whatever, but I had to update half a dozen formulas for each race and then apply it to the entire worksheet. It's a pain..


ANyways, I think we have a chance of holding the house based on Boebert alone. That's a big big big big surprise for me.

There was a poll maybe 6 weeks ago that had it close, and it was essentially dismissed as college kids not knowing what they were doing. That being said, there are still a lot of votes left to be counted...I just have no idea who leanings those areas typically have. : )

 

[Kepler]

Florida is forever lost.

The VA loss was one of the lowest hanging fruit. It's really good news that we held the other two. I think we could pick up some. I almost loaded the entire house into the spreadsheet but didn't want to get blocked from the data feed I'm hijacking.

I don't think you need worry about anything that was more than a +/-5 swing. The lines are drawn. The Nazis aren't coming over to us and we're not going over to them.

 

[Kepler]

Mastriano loses. Good. He was an anti-Semitic MAGA fascist election denier piece of feces. PA will still have democracy in 2024.

 

[dxmnkd316]

fuck. bad news for Ohio. Vance gets that seat from my numbers.
[TABLE="width: 576"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl81, bgcolor: #d9d9d9, colspan: 3"]Senate[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, bgcolor: #d9d9d9, colspan: 3"]Governors[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, bgcolor: #d9d9d9, colspan: 3"]Sec of State[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Reporting[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Needed[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Reporting[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Needed[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Reporting[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Needed[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl76"]AZ[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87, bgcolor: #bce3c8"]39.4%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #d0ddef"]-15.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"]AZ[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87, bgcolor: #bde3c9"]39.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #fcfcff"]-11.1%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"]AZ[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87, bgcolor: #bbe2c7"]38.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #e5ebf6"]-16.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]CO[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #81cb95"]75.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #aec5e3"]-28.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]GA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #63be7b"]92.9%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #f8696b"]12.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]GA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #63be7b"]90.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #f8696b"]16.6%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]FL[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #63be7b"]94.1%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #f8696b"]112.4%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]MI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #ceead8"]29.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #dfe7f4"]-13.5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]MN[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #fafcfd"]1.4%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #5a8ac6"]-38.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]GA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #66bf7e"]92.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #e1e9f5"]-9.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]MN[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #fcfcff"]1.5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #5a8ac6"]-24.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]MI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #d0ead9"]26.4%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fcfcff"]-12.7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]NV[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #fcfcff"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fcfbfe"]1.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]WI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #c4e6cf"]35.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fbd4d7"]-4.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]NV[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #fcfcff"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fbb8ba"]1.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]NH[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #ddf0e4"]19.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #5a8ac6"]-58.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]NV[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]NC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #66bf7d"]92.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fcf4f7"]6.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]OK[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]OH[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #6cc283"]88.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fcf3f6"]7.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]OR[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]PA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #83cb97"]74.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #d1def0"]-15.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]KS[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]WI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #c4e6cf"]34.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fcfcff"]0.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]wa[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #ffc7ce"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]in[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #ffc7ce"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]ut[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #ffc7ce"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]IA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #c0e4cc"]37.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fcf1f4"]9.1%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Jimjamesak]

I made a joke that the House seats would be 217-217 and everyone would be waiting for weeks for the Alaska Division of Elections to run the ranked choice calculations to find out who holds the House.

 

[unofan]

Axne is up 10k with probably 50k left to be counted. Polk County is done, so it's going to be close. Grassley is starting to pull ahead and should be called if it hasn't been already.

2 of the other 3 house races are still close.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

It’s still too early (and close) for ABC News’s Decision Desk to call, but we have a possible upset alert! Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert, the conservative firebrand representing Colorado’s 3rd District who once vowed to carry her glock in Congress and has embraced Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen, is currently trailing in her reelection bid. With 71 percent of expected vote reporting, Boebert has 48 percent while her challenger, Democrat and former Aspen City Council Member Adam Frisch, leads with 52 percent. Our forecast gave Boebert a 97-in-100 chance of winning, so if Frisch can maintain his lead, it will be a surprising ouster.

I'm feeling a bit more hopeful...at least about this district.

 

[psych]

Someone talk me down from getting too excited about the results so far...

 

[Kepler]

Fetterman looking good.

 

[jericho]

NY looking REALLY good for their house races..

 

[Kepler]

Someone talk me down from getting too excited about the results so far...

OK well it's not GREAT. I mean the GOP will make gains in the House and almost certainly take control, which means endless idiotic hearings and impeachments.

Though that may help us in 2024: the GOP will have skin in the game again and won't be outsiders. Now, they won't help the nation -- they'll sabotage as the terrorists they are. BUT, they will then have a record to defend and the country may get really sick of their BS. Biden isn't Obama, it isn't going to be "pin the tail on blackie." Nobody sane doubts Biden is not trying to help the country, and having these boobs constantly running a circus won't go over as well as it did when the GOP could depend on sheer ferocious racism.

Also this is not over: every close election in a red state could be stolen by their SecState and Leg, and obviously the Court will be no help. We are on the path to the end of our democracy still, but it has been significantly slowed. Had the GOP been able to sneak their turd traitors in because OMG GAS PRICES!!!! we might never have had democratic elections again without an actual civil war.

The clock has been set back a few minutes, and remember: in the long run, they are dying. Time, like reality and ethics, is with us. This was a huge opportunity for the Nazis to destroy our democracy and they failed. They will still be garbage tomorrow morning, but, statistically, every hour, more of them die and more of us are born. The Open Society is the future of the world, let alone America. The last five centuries have been the history of us gradually winning and taking the care of humanity over from the creeps who used to abuse it. They will still try, and they are still strong, and fear and stupidity and hatred will be on their side, but we dodged a bullet it took them decades to set up.

 

[French Rage]

Someone talk me down from getting too excited about the results so far...

Well remember GA has to be 50% or it's a runoff, with the libertarian holding the rest of the balance. If the Dems win in PA and hold serve elsewhere, they should enter the runoff with 50 seats; does things not being in the balance help the Dems or GOP?

 

[Jimjamesak]

OK well it's not GREAT. I mean the GOP will make gains in the House and almost certainly take control, which means endless idiotic hearings and impeachments.

Though that may help us in 2024: the GOP will have skin in the game again and won't be outsiders. Now, they won't help the nation -- they'll sabotage as the terrorists they are. BUT, they will then have a record to defend and the country may get really sick of their BS. Biden isn't Obama, it isn't going to be "pin the tail on blackie." Nobody sane doubts Biden is not trying to help the country, and having these boobs constantly running a circus won't go over as well as it did when the GOP could depend on sheer ferocious racism.

Endless government shutdowns to look forward to.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Are you able to calculate the margin Frisch would need to outperform down the stretch?

-8.9%.
Fuck me. That was hard to do. TOtally different calculation because the feed was completely different. So, -8.9% @ 67% average county reporting is good. BUt the ones with 0% in are all moderate republican counties.

 

[Handyman]

Red Wave my azz. RCP can suck it!