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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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Kepler said:
Drew is probably watching Fox and he is an estimate of how much of a bubble their serfs are in.

Ironically the GOP does have good stories tonight like the redrawn FL House districts, but if they are pumping this into their produc--, er, audience then that tells us what the rate of ignorance is.
Click to expand...

Nah, I always watch CNN and NECN.
 
So there are roughly 60 House competitive seats, but 50 are Dem incumbent. Therefore the Dems need to go 46-14 to hold their majority. Right now they are on beam for 40-20, meaning a very slim GOP House majority.

AFAIK there have been zero unexpected results yet.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Warnock would need to underperform by almost 14 percent.
Click to expand...

That is of remaining uncounted votes, right? The numbers will move as more votes comes in, until somebody exceeded the range in which they could possible screw up, at which point they win?
 
Axne may be in trouble in IA-3, only up 25k after the Polk County early votes come in. another 5k would've been nice.

Nice thing is Reynolds doesn't appear to be bringing down ballot with her. Other statewide D incumbents all outperforming the D candidate for gov for treasurer, AG, and auditor.
 
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Like the special election, I wouldn't expect anything final from Alaska for a couple of weeks (likely 11/23).
 
Kepler said:
That is of remaining uncounted votes, right? The numbers will move as more votes comes in, until somebody exceeded the range in which they could possible screw up, at which point they win?
Click to expand...

Yes, remaining uncounted votes relative to what the expected number of votes will end up at. So, that's the one subjective thing in the spreadsheet.

And yes, the numbers move asymptotically as you approach 100% reporting. It will go to infinity at 100%. But really, anything where outperform is getting close to 25-30 with 50% reporting is getting into safe territory.
 
Spamberger jumps into the lead with those PW votes. Hey guess what, it's not a horror movie.

We are going to overperform the midterm mean. It's hard to imagine we will not lose the House but the fact is it's possible, and that's a staggering GOP fail.
 
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[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #b2c8e5"]-24.5%[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #faa5a8"]7.5%[/TD]
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[/TR]
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[TD="class: xl78"]FL[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #f8696b"]105.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]MI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fcfcff"]0.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]MN[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #faaeb0"]6.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]GA[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #dce5f3"]-10.6%[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #7ba1d1"]-6.6%[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl78"]NV[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl78"]NH[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl78"]PA[/TD]
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"The Other Nate":

So far, Democrats are running about a point ahead of our expectations outside of Florida, with the GOP lead in the House starting to come down a bit. Not many signs of a red wave at this point.
Click to expand...
 
Updated with a really stupid, but the only thing I got, way to look at reporting. I did an AVERAGE reporting across all counties in each state. Not ideal, for very obvious reasons, but there's no better way for me to do it.
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[TD="class: xl87, bgcolor: #d0ead9"]27.4%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #c9d8ed"]-16.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"]AZ[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87, bgcolor: #cde9d6"]27.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #d2def0"]-11.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"]AZ[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87, bgcolor: #cbe8d5"]26.9%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #bccfe8"]-17.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]CO[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #a2d8b2"]55.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #a8c1e1"]-27.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]GA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #63be7b"]85.4%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #f8696b"]8.4%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]GA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #63be7b"]83.1%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #f8696b"]12.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]FL[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #63be7b"]94.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #f8696b"]111.5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]MI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #d5ecdd"]22.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fbcdcf"]-2.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]MN[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #fbfcfe"]0.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #5a8ac6"]-40.6%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]GA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #72c488"]85.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #dbe4f3"]-10.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]MN[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #fcfcff"]0.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #5a8ac6"]-25.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]MI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #d9eee1"]19.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fcfcff"]-2.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]NV[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #fcfcff"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fcfbfe"]1.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]WI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #cde9d7"]26.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fcfcff"]-7.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]NV[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #fcfcff"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fcdcdf"]1.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]NH[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #ddf0e4"]19.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #5a8ac6"]-52.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]NV[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]NC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #66c07e"]92.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fcf8fb"]3.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]OK[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]OH[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #78c78d"]81.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fcf8fb"]3.1%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]OR[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]PA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #a2d8b1"]55.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #cbd9ed"]-15.9%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"]KS[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]WI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #d2ebdb"]25.9%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #f8f9fd"]-1.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]wa[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #ffc7ce"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]in[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #ffc7ce"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]ut[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #ffc7ce"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl78"]IA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: #cbe8d4"]30.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #fcfafd"]1.9%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: black"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl78"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
GOP now has 5 House flips, which they needed to take the majority. So the Dems must gain a net 1 rom now on. We saved 2 of 3 in VA so you can thank me personally. We lost all 3 in FL.
 
Kepler said:
GOP now has 5 House flips, which they needed to take the majority. So the Dems must gain a net 1 rom now on. We saved 2 of 3 in VA so you can thank me personally. We lost all 3 in FL.
Click to expand...

Florida is forever lost.

The VA loss was one of the lowest hanging fruit. It's really good news that we held the other two. I think we could pick up some. I almost loaded the entire house into the spreadsheet but didn't want to get blocked from the data feed I'm hijacking.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Florida is forever lost.

The VA loss was one of the lowest hanging fruit. It's really good news that we held the other two. I think we could pick up some. I almost loaded the entire house into the spreadsheet but didn't want to get blocked from the data feed I'm hijacking.
Click to expand...

What are you seeing in CO-3 (Boebert district)? Looks like with about 1/2 to 2/3 of the vote in, she's losing by about 6-7 points. I haven't seen it discussed anywhere yet, so I presume she will win handily. But, I was curious what you were seeing.
 
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