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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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WeAreNDHockey said:
Here's something that will warm your heart. A poll released 2 days ago shows Hershel Walker LEADING Raphael Warnock by 2 points. Polls suck, they're just shapshots in time, this poll gets just a grade of B from 538.com... yeah, yeah. But that any poll could show Walker leading is incredible. The level of stupidity in so many people is fucking astounding.
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Taking a peek at the pollster rating, this isn't great. This would be like Rasmussen saying Warnock was up by 8.

Rasmussen is R+1.5
This outfit is D+3.3
 
I don't trust any poll...especially ones Ds use to raise money like that one.

The bias is no longer trying to make things look rosier. The better plan is to make it look bleak to energize the base and get dollars flowing. The amount of emails I get about these polls daily is worse than in a Presidential year.
 
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There's an ad in MI-3 claiming Peter Meijer did a lot to bring people back from Afghanistan.

And yet, the evidence for such claims is slim.
 
so mookie just faxed in his fl republican primary ballot.
lot of stupid local choices, but mookie by choice voted all men. If republican women are on board with what happened, fuck them. Mookie will vote for the D broads in the general come November. Not here.
 
Looking at what's left of the MI GQP Republican governor candidates, we got:

Some guy named Ralph

Conservative Businessman
Conservative Businesswoman

A January 6 insurrectionist

A loudmouth chiropractor.

And their ads are all carbon copies of each other.
 
Selzer's poll continues to be a mixed bag for Iowa. Grassley only leads by 8 (decent sign for the Ds), Reynolds leads by 17 (bad sign), House races are all 10+ in favor of the R incumbant minus the 3rd, where Axne, the lone D incumbant, leads by 3 points. Good sign for her is that she's ahead in both Polk (Des Moines) and Dallas (Des Moines suburbs) counties, bad sign is it's still only a 3 point lead for her. But if she wins Dallas in addition to Polk, she's probably golden because that's the vast majority of the district's population. She's won the last 2 times carrying only Polk, and just keeping Dallas close enough that the rest didn't matter.
 
What happened to Iowa? It was purple up to a couple cycles ago. Is this the state GOP slamming the door shut with suppression?
 
Kepler said:
What happened to Iowa? It was purple up to a couple cycles ago. Is this the state GOP slamming the door shut with suppression?
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It's working class and rural whites who used to vote Dem because unions shifting hard red. Also the local Democratic party continues to suck, to put it mildly. I don't think they've had a good governor candidate since Vilsack 30+ years ago. Even Culver, who actually won between Branstache regimes, ended up being a dud. The Dems could've had a good candidate 4 years ago, but he couldn't keep it in his pants and bowed out during in the primary season. At least Franken seems to be a competent Senate candidate this year. I just wish we had picked him 2 years ago against Ernst, who was far more vulnerable. But the party and donors had their chosen candidate and went with it.

The 2 main cities (Des Moines and Cedar Rapids) and the university towns still vote blue, and the burbs are still purple. But they lost everything else that used to be purple, like Dubuque, the Quad Cities, and Counciltucky. And Sioux City has always gone hard red for some reason, even though it's been a joke of a town for as long as I've been alive.

It sucks that Ames, Des Moines, Iowa City, and Cedar Rapids are all in separate districts (especially Ames being wasted in District 4), because any 2 of them in one district would virtually ensure a D win. There were some voter suppression efforts made in the last 2 years, but nothing major.
 
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Kepler said:
What happened to Iowa? It was purple up to a couple cycles ago. Is this the state GOP slamming the door shut with suppression?
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Same story as every other former midwestern Dem stronghold - union conservadems had one too many Robitussins on the rocks and went full derp.
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Same story as every other former midwestern Dem stronghold - union conservadems had one too many Robitussins on the rocks and went full derp.
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Right but those rural whites went GOP elsewhere during the 80s. Why did Iowans first resist switching but then switch so quickly? Was it just we put a darkie in the White House?
 
Kepler said:
Right but those rural whites went GOP elsewhere during the 80s. Why did Iowans first resist switching but then switch so quickly? Was it just we put a darkie in the White House?
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Probably a safe bet:

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Kepler said:
Right but those rural whites went GOP elsewhere during the 80s. Why did Iowans first resist switching but then switch so quickly? Was it just we put a darkie in the White House?
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But he was clean, and spoke good. Confused. :confused:
 
Kepler said:
Right but those rural whites went GOP elsewhere during the 80s. Why did Iowans first resist switching but then switch so quickly? Was it just we put a darkie in the White House?
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Hard to say since they were the ones who put him there in the first place - Iowa gave him the caucus win in 2008 and general election victories in both 08 and 12. Northeast Iowa especially is chock full of Obama-Trump voters, and no I can't explain that.

Id say it's misogyny more than anything, but Reynolds and Ernst (and 3 out of 4 house members being women) kinda blow that out of the water, too.

Best guess? Fox News effect given that rural Iowa is ancient, white, and spends 3 months of the year as snowbirds in Florida.
 
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Ask yourself this question. Of the major issues of the day:

Health Care
Women's Health Care (yeah, I am listing this separate cause it's that fucking important)
Climate Change
Inflation
Guns
Voting Rights
Policing

What is the Republican answer/policy idea/law framework for any of those issues. What is it? They won't tell you cause they have none. Their answer to any of them in Congress is just to say no and offer NO ALTERNATIVE policy ideas.

Now, ask yourself. Why would anyone vote for someone or give money to someone to ultimately hire them for a job they have no interest in doing?

That is effectively the United States right now. It's very easy to see how every one of these issues has gone completely off the fucking rails and it is very easy to draw a direct line to one party for it.
 
ScoobyDoo said:
Ask yourself this question. Of the major issues of the day:

Health Care
Women's Health Care (yeah, I am listing this separate cause it's that fucking important)
Climate Change
Inflation
Guns
Voting Rights
Policing

What is the Republican answer/policy idea/law framework for any of those issues. What is it? They won't tell you cause they have none. Their answer to any of them in Congress is just to say no and offer NO ALTERNATIVE policy ideas.

Now, ask yourself. Why would anyone vote for someone or give money to someone to ultimately hire them for a job they have no interest in doing?

That is effectively the United States right now. It's very easy to see how every one of these issues has gone completely off the fucking rails and it is very easy to draw a direct line to one party for it.
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1. Give money to rich health corporations
2. Forced Birth
3. It's fake or naturally occurring and the economy is more important than trees.
4. It's all Biden's fault, and cutting taxes for the rich and cutting services will force people back to work, fixing the economy.
5. Guns are perfectly fine as is, and the back half of the 2nd Amendment is absolute.
6. Voter ID, must vote in person, allowed to challenge elections.
7. Keep those minorities in line.

Republicans have ideas. It's just that they are insane or worthless ideas.
 
Cook shifts the GA gov race shifts from "Toss Up" to "Lean R". I have long figured that Kemp will eke out a second term, by hook or by crook. He and his posse controlled the whole redistricting process in GA and will again control the whole elections process, 4 years after he had an obvious COI overseeing his own first election.
 
The guy who last night tried to stab the R candidate for NY Governor (a sitting US Congressional Rep) is out this morning on no bail.

NY has some interesting policies and laws ...
 
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