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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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walrus said:
Gas won't be over 5 bucks unless the war spreads. Abortion hits home, going to be the first question I ask when state reps come to talk.
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And actually, gas, in today's dollars, is lower than it was in W's term, before the economy collapsed and gas prices with it.
 
Kepler said:
We are certainly going to learn something about American women. A woman who votes R now is simply insane. So, what percentage of those are there? We will find out in November.

Up until now women voting R could be stupid and/or delusional and tell themselves the Rs would never actually do it. But now they have. This is the difference between sheltering your roommate who has murder fantasies and sheltering him when he has actually murdered.

My guess is nothing will change. But plenty of women are telling me, no, this is going to hit the Rs hard enough that it will show up at the polls, perhaps decisively. So we'll see whether my abiding disrespect for the average voter is justified, or whether there actually is a depth she won't sink to.
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You commit the sin of assume all women are pro choice. Like when people assume all young people vote Dem.
 
Handyman said:
You commit the sin of assume all women are pro choice. Like when people assume all young people vote Dem.
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Not at all. I am well aware of the numbers. The question is, will non-lunatic women finally step up? The loony toons evangelical population is at most 25%. Assuming they are evenly divided between men and women, and assuming the brainrot of evangelical Christianity is so overdetermining that there is no difference in pro choice attitudes between evangelical men and women, that means 75% of women should be voting Democratic, only to preserve their lives as adult human beings.
 
Kepler said:
Not at all. I am well aware of the numbers. The question is, will non-lunatic women finally step up? The loony toons evangelical population is at most 25%. Assuming they are evenly divided between men and women, and assuming the brainrot of evangelical Christianity is so overdetermining that there is no difference in pro choice attitudes between evangelical men and women, that means 75% of women should be voting Democratic, only to preserve their lives as adult human beings.
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Need to figure out how to dent the suburban white mom who gets sucked in by false issues like "Defund the Police" and "Critical Race Theory" and doesn't get compelled by real issues like Abortion and Gun Control.

Once you figure that out you'll get your 75%.
 
ScoobyDoo said:
Need to figure out how to dent the suburban white mom who gets sucked in by false issues like "Defund the Police" and "Critical Race Theory" and doesn't get compelled by real issues like Abortion and Gun Control.

Once you figure that out you'll get your 75%.
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They need to hit them with facts like- eclampsia
ectopic
miscarriages needing to be removed
ruptured placentas
Birth defects that mean baby can’t live
and maybe some vivid descriptions of 12 year old rape victims giving birth


the things that women don’t cause that require medical intervention that now may not happen until a doctor calls 28 lawyers and she may die in the meantime
 
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Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
They need to hit them with facts like- eclampsia
ectopic
miscarriages needing to be removed
ruptured placentas
Birth defects that mean baby can’t live
and maybe some vivid descriptions of 12 year old rape victims giving birth


the things that women don’t cause that require medical intervention that now may not happen until a doctor calls 28 lawyers and she may die in the meantime
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Bingo!
 
Thompson wrap up was pretty bleak. "If you have discovered some courage you hitherto has hidden away." Yikes.
 
Here in MI-3, I've got Peter Meijer vs. Hillary Scholten. No doubt I'm voting for Scholten in November, but I'm wondering if Meijer will be primaried out for not being up Trump's ass far enough.
 
MissThundercat said:
Here in MI-3, I've got Peter Meijer vs. Hillary Scholten. No doubt I'm voting for Scholten in November, but I'm wondering if Meijer will be primaried out for not being up Trump's *** far enough.
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If the new MI-3 was any Trumpier I would say Meijer is already toast, but last I checked I believe it's only R+2. That's a tough balancing act for Republicans trying to win back the House, especially now with Roe tossed out. A fascist firebrand replacing Meijer could excite the base, or it could drive women of suburban Grand Rapids who might have voted for Meijer to Scholten. Sticking with Meijer is probably the safer bet. If he wins he'll still vote with leadership 90% of the time, and if they take the House back they can punish him by backbenching him.
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
They need to hit them with facts like- eclampsia
ectopic
miscarriages needing to be removed
ruptured placentas
Birth defects that mean baby can’t live
and maybe some vivid descriptions of 12 year old rape victims giving birth


the things that women don’t cause that require medical intervention that now may not happen until a doctor calls 28 lawyers and she may die in the meantime
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Typical republican thinks: who cares; who cares; who cares; who cares; who cares; and finally
"Hey check out the 12 year old girl I just nailed."
 
MissThundercat said:
Here in MI-3, I've got Peter Meijer vs. Hillary Scholten. No doubt I'm voting for Scholten in November, but I'm wondering if Meijer will be primaried out for not being up Trump's *** far enough.
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Meijer is in a perfect position to thread the needle and get reelected. The GOP would be dumb to primary him - so they will.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Now it's at 53-47. That's an R+17 district IIRC
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First time I can recall that the Dem actually won Lancaster County (Lincoln). It normally swings blue for presidential races but that's about it.

Some of it also is likely the shift of district lines in Sarpy County (Omaha suburb) - they took some of the bluer parts out of Omaha's district and moved it here to try to keep NE-2 red and win back the associated electoral vote.

Having said that, still represents a shift left by at least 5 points, possibly more.
 
One thing, I was wrong. It was a Trump +11 in 2020. Either way. You're right uno, this is a shift of around +5, not noise. Well, it's a shift for now.
 
5 actually is noise, though. Districts wander.

I want to see a huge shift as women abandon the Nazi party in droves, but I find it difficult to believe any woman with a brain has not already. The evidence is that white nationalism and Christofascism are both quite popular among white women, particular among the uneducated. Why would they suddenly realize the GOP wants them to be baby machines, when the GOP has screamed that at the top of its lungs for the last fifty years. Half of women, at going rates, aren't stupid, why would they not have punished them for their neofascism decades ago?
 
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Kepler said:
5 actually is noise, though. Districts wander.
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(Edit: I accidentally skipped 2006. It was 58.6 - 41.64.
I didn't include 2002 because it was R vs. Libertarian)
 
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