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2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto
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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto
I'm not sure Buttigieg winning Iowa, if he does in fact do so, has any legs either. He still has zero presence in the Super Tuesday states where the lion's share of delegates have been awarded. There's a reason why we don't talk about President Harkin or President Santorum after all.
I'm not sure Buttigieg winning Iowa, if he does in fact do so, has any legs either. He still has zero presence in the Super Tuesday states where the lion's share of delegates have been awarded. There's a reason why we don't talk about President Harkin or President Santorum after all.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto
There are 26 days between IA and Super Tuesday. There is some time for a hot candidate to build support, especially if attachment is squishy. I doubt very many voters right now are irrevocably devoted to a given candidate, and Pete is the poster boy for "everybody's second choice." Centrists (policy) and Liberals (identity) can each find reasons to get behind him. If he wins IA the Hate Machine will go into overdrive and he'll begin to get a lot of enthusiastic support in reaction to their predictably bigoted and ignorant attacks.
Pete needs to start preaching from this text. He needs to openly court the white working class who were f-cked by the Republicans starting with Reagan. He needs to call out elitism (this is me talking, remember) and he needs to call for a New Deal for white poor and lower middle class families. Because here's the beauty of it: you can't raise the white poor without raising all the poor. We can bring inequality back into the national debate by letting Pete put a white face on it.
Pete could enact Bernie's agenda on taxes and health care and be applauded by the white poor.
I'm not sure Buttigieg winning Iowa, if he does in fact do so, has any legs either. He still has zero presence in the Super Tuesday states where the lion's share of delegates have been awarded. There's a reason why we don't talk about President Harkin or President Santorum after all.
There are 26 days between IA and Super Tuesday. There is some time for a hot candidate to build support, especially if attachment is squishy. I doubt very many voters right now are irrevocably devoted to a given candidate, and Pete is the poster boy for "everybody's second choice." Centrists (policy) and Liberals (identity) can each find reasons to get behind him. If he wins IA the Hate Machine will go into overdrive and he'll begin to get a lot of enthusiastic support in reaction to their predictably bigoted and ignorant attacks.
Pete needs to start preaching from this text. He needs to openly court the white working class who were f-cked by the Republicans starting with Reagan. He needs to call out elitism (this is me talking, remember) and he needs to call for a New Deal for white poor and lower middle class families. Because here's the beauty of it: you can't raise the white poor without raising all the poor. We can bring inequality back into the national debate by letting Pete put a white face on it.
Pete could enact Bernie's agenda on taxes and health care and be applauded by the white poor.
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unofan
Well-known member
I'm not sure Buttigieg winning Iowa, if he does in fact do so, has any legs either. He still has zero presence in the Super Tuesday states where the lion's share of delegates have been awarded. There's a reason why we don't talk about President Harkin or President Santorum after all.
Did give us Obama, though.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto
No but a bad defeat could be serious trouble for Biden. If he isnt winning over Midwestern voters early they arent going to support him later. He has his base of support and if Pete can chip away at that even a little Biden is toast. A Pete victory (or second place) in Iowa wont guarantee him the nomination or anything, but it will be a troubling sign for Biden unless he can turn it around in New Hampshire. (which he wont)
I'm not sure Buttigieg winning Iowa, if he does in fact do so, has any legs either. He still has zero presence in the Super Tuesday states where the lion's share of delegates have been awarded. There's a reason why we don't talk about President Harkin or President Santorum after all.
No but a bad defeat could be serious trouble for Biden. If he isnt winning over Midwestern voters early they arent going to support him later. He has his base of support and if Pete can chip away at that even a little Biden is toast. A Pete victory (or second place) in Iowa wont guarantee him the nomination or anything, but it will be a troubling sign for Biden unless he can turn it around in New Hampshire. (which he wont)
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto
That would be bad for him but I doubt it will happen. He's currently in a four-way tie with Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg. There are a lot of institutional reasons why his support has a hard floor (de facto DNC Deep State and rich donor support). Though he could slip to 4th, which looks bad, in a 22/21/20/19 type of split.
That would be bad for him but I doubt it will happen. He's currently in a four-way tie with Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg. There are a lot of institutional reasons why his support has a hard floor (de facto DNC Deep State and rich donor support). Though he could slip to 4th, which looks bad, in a 22/21/20/19 type of split.
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto
Biden and Sanders have more slack to weather an early defeat because they're already well known candidates. Buttigieg doesn't seem to be contesting NH so if he wins IA that's great, but somebody else winning NH sorta blunts that, then its NV and then SC. You could have 4 different winners in 4 different states.
I'll also say that for momentum's sake neither Sanders nor Warren can afford to finish behind Biden in NH. Its not fatal if they finish 1-2 but if one of them slips to 3rd place, or if god forbid Biden WINS NH, they're screwed.
EDIT: The primary calendar: https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2020-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/
Biden and Sanders have more slack to weather an early defeat because they're already well known candidates. Buttigieg doesn't seem to be contesting NH so if he wins IA that's great, but somebody else winning NH sorta blunts that, then its NV and then SC. You could have 4 different winners in 4 different states.
I'll also say that for momentum's sake neither Sanders nor Warren can afford to finish behind Biden in NH. Its not fatal if they finish 1-2 but if one of them slips to 3rd place, or if god forbid Biden WINS NH, they're screwed.
EDIT: The primary calendar: https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2020-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/
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Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto
Prior primary results may have less impact and less momentum now. It used to be they were basically the only reports, so they became extraordinarily important forward. But the news cycle now means the results of Tuesday will have been buried by five other stories by the weekend. I just don't think they have the same punch.
If true, this is very good news, because it means the I'm sure very fine people of IA and NH, who look nothing like most of the country, no longer get a big say in the nomination.
I look forward to the day when we have 4 or 5 regional primaries and the schedule is randomized from cycle to cycle. That way the candidates can campaign within a smaller area, they can refine their messaging to a region while balancing national considerations, and they can prepare better for the general election.
Prior primary results may have less impact and less momentum now. It used to be they were basically the only reports, so they became extraordinarily important forward. But the news cycle now means the results of Tuesday will have been buried by five other stories by the weekend. I just don't think they have the same punch.
If true, this is very good news, because it means the I'm sure very fine people of IA and NH, who look nothing like most of the country, no longer get a big say in the nomination.
I look forward to the day when we have 4 or 5 regional primaries and the schedule is randomized from cycle to cycle. That way the candidates can campaign within a smaller area, they can refine their messaging to a region while balancing national considerations, and they can prepare better for the general election.
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Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto
He is in a 3 way tie...all of them well behind Pete. Pete is well up on the field in this poll.
There is no way to spin that as good for Biden. Warren and Sanders will make that up in NH but Biden is probably looking at 3rd there. If Biden underperforms in Iowa and NH the vultures will start circling.
I am not saying Pete will win (I dont think he has any shot for sustained success) but he is the best chance to slow Biden down enough to let a better candidate win. As I said 3 months ago Pete is the most powerful person in the election right now.
He is in a 3 way tie...all of them well behind Pete. Pete is well up on the field in this poll.
There is no way to spin that as good for Biden. Warren and Sanders will make that up in NH but Biden is probably looking at 3rd there. If Biden underperforms in Iowa and NH the vultures will start circling.
I am not saying Pete will win (I dont think he has any shot for sustained success) but he is the best chance to slow Biden down enough to let a better candidate win. As I said 3 months ago Pete is the most powerful person in the election right now.
trixR4kids
New member
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto
If Biden gets like fourth in Iowa he’s screwed, his entire campaign is based on his electability and ability to beat Trump. That narrative takes a giant hit if that happens.
If Biden gets like fourth in Iowa he’s screwed, his entire campaign is based on his electability and ability to beat Trump. That narrative takes a giant hit if that happens.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto
He could survive it if he can rebound in NH. I cant see that happening against Warren and Sanders though.
We will see though...lots of moving parts.
He could survive it if he can rebound in NH. I cant see that happening against Warren and Sanders though.
We will see though...lots of moving parts.
unofan
Well-known member
But Sanders finishing second to Hillary didn't negate his electability, amirite?
Slap Shot
I got nothing
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I think this is good to remember. Very unsettled fields around this time in '76, '88, '92, and '04 as well. Dems won the WH two of those years. <a href="https://t.co/TYsjc9AtLd">https://t.co/TYsjc9AtLd</a></p>— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1196453620251856898?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 18, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I think this is good to remember. Very unsettled fields around this time in '76, '88, '92, and '04 as well. Dems won the WH two of those years. <a href="https://t.co/TYsjc9AtLd">https://t.co/TYsjc9AtLd</a></p>— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1196453620251856898?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 18, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto
Sanders is GOD, Biden is not.
Did I get that right trix?
Sanders is GOD, Biden is not.
Did I get that right trix?
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto
Nice.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Buttigieg Campaign Appeals To Moderate Republicans By Touting Low Approval Among Black Voters <a href="https://t.co/ekJmzRz6Nm">https://t.co/ekJmzRz6Nm</a> <a href="https://t.co/ZOX7vRWuts">pic.twitter.com/ZOX7vRWuts</a></p>— The Onion (@TheOnion) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1196507660771844103?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 18, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Nice.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Buttigieg Campaign Appeals To Moderate Republicans By Touting Low Approval Among Black Voters <a href="https://t.co/ekJmzRz6Nm">https://t.co/ekJmzRz6Nm</a> <a href="https://t.co/ZOX7vRWuts">pic.twitter.com/ZOX7vRWuts</a></p>— The Onion (@TheOnion) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1196507660771844103?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 18, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
trixR4kids
New member
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto
Please go back to telling us how you support a sociapathic mayor who fired his police chief for reporting racism within his department.
unofan
Well-known member
The derp is strong with this one.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto
<img src="https://media.giphy.com/media/JmsG1PY1K94hyOa1v9/giphy.gif"></img>
Seriously trix, please get out of the Bernosphere and deprogram from the cult.
<img src="https://media.giphy.com/media/JmsG1PY1K94hyOa1v9/giphy.gif"></img>
Seriously trix, please get out of the Bernosphere and deprogram from the cult.
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