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2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

Well the fact that we're not even entirely sure how it works or who gets to vote probably explains a lot right off the bat, only people who go to that booth are voting (presumably) and I'm not sure how many people are really looking to sign up for DFL emails in the first place.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

trixR4kids said:
Well the fact that we're not even entirely sure how it works or who gets to vote probably explains a lot right off the bat, only people who go to that booth are voting (presumably) and I'm not sure how many people are really looking to sign up for DFL emails in the first place.
Click to expand...

Well, it's kind of the central feature of the DFL booth. Either way, it says something about his ground game here. Several of my friends got pictures and selfies with him at the state fair. The only reason they got them with Bernie is because Warren's line was "thousands of people long" instead of Bernie's "hundreds"-long line.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

The latest Monmouth poll shows it's neck-and-neck with Sanders, Warren, and Biden.

If I were in Biden's camp, I would be very concerned about this poll. Some highlights:
Biden has suffered an across the board decline in his support since June. He lost ground with white Democrats (from 32% to 18%) and voters of color (from 33% to 19%), among voters without a college degree (from 35% to 18%) and college graduates (from 28% to 20%), with both men (from 38% to 24%) and women (from 29% to 16%), and among voters under 50 years old (from 21% to 6%) as well as voters aged 50 and over (from 42% to 33%). Most of Biden’s lost support in these groups shifted
almost equally toward Sanders and Warren.
Click to expand...

Biden lost support over the past two months among Democrats who call themselves moderate or conservative (from 40% to 22%) with the shift among these voters accruing to both Sanders (from 10% to 20%) and Warren (from 6% to 16%).
Click to expand...

Warren leads now in the early states (those on Super Tuesday or earlier):
Candidate, Aug 19, Jun 19, May 19
Warren -- 20% -- 15% -- 9%
Biden -- 20% -- 26% -- 26%
Sanders -- 16% -- 15% -- 14%
Click to expand...

Warren also now holds the lead in net favorability at +52%. Biden, Sanders, and Harris are +41, +40, and +39 respectively. Joe lost 16% and Bernie lost 4% since May. Harris lost 10%!

Warren's name recognition has significantly improved as well. Only 7% haven't heard of her, down from 17% in March and 12% in May.

Which of the following comes closest to how you would like to see health care handled:
A. get rid of all private insurance coverage in favor of having everyone on a single public plan like Medicare for All
B. allow people to either opt into Medicare or keep their private coverage
C. keep health insurance private for people under age 65 but regulate the costs
D. keep the health insurance system basically as it is?

A. 22%
B. 53%
C. 7%
D. 11%
Click to expand...

Sanders has also taken a lead on non-white voters:
Sanders - 22%
Biden - 19%
Warren - 14%
Harris - 9%

I would think there should be a decent overlap in the demographics of the Sanders/Warren campaigns.
--Tied for favorable across the board, save for Warren + 12% among white voters and Bernie +10% with non-white.
--Bernie has almost 2x Warren's unfavorable rating across every demo. Except non-whites. They are tied.

Warren has a +65% favorable among college educated compared to Bernie's +35%. For no degree, +43% for both.

And we can hopefully put a bullet in the idea that moderates don't want healthcare for all. 54% of moderate to conservative democrats say it's very important to have a candidate support M4A.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

Sanders has also taken a lead on non-white voters:
Click to expand...
It's almost like the white Bernie Bro narrative was a total fabrication, who knew!? :p
dxmnkd316 said:
Well, it's kind of the central feature of the DFL booth.
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Even if I remembered I'm not sure I would've signed up for DFL emails just to put a bean in the counter, that's more what I'm getting at. It doesn't really seem representative of anything.

What he said
vvvvvvvvv
 
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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

My gut is telling me Warren will get the nomination... but I fear / suspect she ends up facing the same fate as Hillary.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

I would take Warren in a NY minute over Biden/Sanders, even though I hope she stays where she is, if that makes sense. And if pressed, I'd take Biden over Sanders, as in gun to my head.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

SANDERS IS THE SAME THING AS WARREN. For the last time. Their Venn diagram is basically a circle with a slight motion blur to it.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

dxmnkd316 said:
SANDERS IS THE SAME THING AS WARREN. For the last time. Their Venn diagram is basically a circle with a slight motion blur to it.
Click to expand...

Warren seems to be a bit more on her rocker than off it. Again, I don't want her, but if it does come down to those three...
 
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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

That’s fair. Bernie did put out a pretty spectacular plan the other day though.

Then he yelled at some clouds on twitter today or or yesterday.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

dxmnkd316 said:
That’s fair. Bernie did put out a pretty spectacular plan the other day though.

Then he yelled at some clouds on twitter today or or yesterday.
Click to expand...
That's the part that really scares me, not his plans, although they scare me, also.

Let's just get a sane person in there first. then worry about the plans, and then what represents what (insert yourself) wants.

And then take a step back and realize what American politics has become.....
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

Rover said:
I think trix fainted after he read that but once he wakes up, watch out!

I'm pleased with a poll showing Lizzy in the lead but before we write Biden's obit lets make sure this one isn't an outlier. Here's another one released a day later. :confused:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...-of-2020-democrats-poll/ar-AAGoCxP?ocid=ientp
Click to expand...

Individual polls mean nothing, especially this far out. The long term trending seems to be that (1) everybody below the big 3 is dropping and (2) the big 3 are gradually converging on each other.

The lessons I take from that are (a) there is a broad consensus among Democratic voters that we need leftist economic policies (2 of the 3 contenders champion a return to true economic liberalism not seen in 50 years) and (b) Biden is in trouble long-term because his best path was, like Jeb!, to be a fait accompli based on name recognition, BIRGing Obama, and the usual centrist attempt to de-legitimize liberal economics and unpopular. The longer he doesn't put it away the worse shape he is in.

The people are ahead of the leadership now. They've grown up and grown past the Reagan PTSD. Or the leadership is simply so old and obsolete they can't get past it -- with every day the leadership becomes more out of touch and moribund compared to the voters. The only thing masking this chasm is that the two liberal leaders are themselves really old. A young and dynamic social democrat would completely blow away all this detritus like Alexander obliterating the dead husk of the Persian Empire.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

Kepler said:
Individual polls mean nothing, especially this far out. The long term trending seems to be that (1) everybody below the big 3 is dropping and (2) the big 3 are gradually converging on each other.

The lessons I take from that are (a) there is a broad consensus among Democratic voters that we need leftist economic policies (2 of the 3 contenders champion a return to true economic liberalism not seen in 50 years) and (b) Biden is in trouble long-term because his best path was, like Jeb!, to be a fait accompli based on name recognition, BIRGing Obama, and the usual centrist attempt to de-legitimize liberal economics and unpopular. The longer he doesn't put it away the worse shape he is in.

The people are ahead of the leadership now. They've grown up and grown past the Reagan PTSD. Or the leadership is simply so old and obsolete they can't get past it -- with every day the leadership becomes more out of touch and moribund compared to the voters. The only thing masking this chasm is that the two liberal leaders are themselves really old. A young and dynamic social democrat would completely blow away all this detritus like Alexander obliterating the dead husk of the Persian Empire.
Click to expand...

I'm having trouble wrapping my mind around the mythical young social democrat thing when the top 3 contenders have an average age of 75 years old! :D

Biden is benefitting from 1) having his own lane to run in while everyone else goes after progressives and 2) African American support. #1 won't go away but if someone can chip into #2 then he is indeed in trouble. However, my take is different than yours (of course). He can't be allowed to maintain his #'s going into Super Tuesday. If he does the delegates he accumulates all at once on that day will make it impossible to easily get rid of him. You are correct that individual national polls have limited meaning. However, the most well known person has an advantage of not having to drop in to a state and spend a bazillion dollars to just build up name recognition. This benefits Bernie and Biden when the contests start coming fast and furious. Somebody needs to break even with him down South.

https://ballotpedia.org/Super_Tuesday_primaries,_2020
 
The Rube said:
That's the part that really scares me, not his plans, although they scare me, also.

Let's just get a sane person in there first. then worry about the plans, and then what represents what (insert yourself) wants.

And then take a step back and realize what American politics has become.....
Click to expand...

Does Scandinavia scare you?
 
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