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2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

5mn_Major said:
From a pop trend, yes. Electorally, not so much.
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I think they go hand in hand. As the Rust Belt depopulates the dead-enders will be Hannity and Rush listeners, pining for the days of domestic violence and lynchings. South Carolina without the pretty girls.

<img src="https://gamecocksonline.com/images/2018/10/6/2018_19_Carolina_Girls.jpg" height="500" >
 
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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Kepler said:
I think they go hand in hand. As the Rust Belt depopulates the dead-enders will be Hannity and Rush listeners, pining for the days of domestic violence and lynchings. South Carolina without the pretty girls.
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According to US census, the midwest is dropping a million every five years - at 66 million, we'll have a conversation in year 2350.

Regardless, you need to be introduced to Swedish girls (cuz your photo has every single Swede living in SC). :p
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

5mn_Major said:
Regardless, you need to be introduced to Swedish girls (cuz your photo has every single Swede living in SC). :p
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My heart runs to Celtic, not Nordic.

<img src="https://i.imgur.com/WOcd4jf.jpg" height="333" >
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Rover said:
I think a big problem in Florida, as well as Ohio, is a completely sh itty and inept state party that's been useless for like the past 25 years. Dems keep losing squeakers in FL and IMO its because whoever's running things down there (DWS?) can't find their a ss with both hands. Rebuilding in both of those places is a must.
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Ohio is a lost cause. I'd spend the time and money on fixing Florida, for sure.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Kepler said:
My heart runs to Celtic, not Nordic.
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I can't see your pic because imgur is blocked here, but based upon your previous posts, it's a group of redheads. Redheads are no strangers to Scandinavian nations.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

I wouldn't be too quick to dump the entire Rust Belt. From my perspective a coalition of young liberals + educated voters + non white urban dwellers + unions ought to carry the day still in WI, MI and PA just like it does in say Minny. Goopers didn't abandon Indiana or North Carolina because they lost them for the first time in eons back in 2008. I suggest we take a similar stance for states that Dems had won repeatedly from 1992-2012 and where they control every elected statewide office except for one Senate seat.

Regarding Ohio, you're p!ssing away too many House seats if you don't compete. I too don't like the trends there but you can't give Nazis free reign without any pushback in a state that large.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Rover said:
Regarding Ohio, you're p!ssing away too many House seats if you don't compete. I too don't like the trends there but you can't give Nazis free reign without any pushback in a state that large.
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After 2020 redistricting it will get smaller, as will Michigan (saw an article that we're likely to lose another seat in Congress after 2020). But for now, sure, throw the money at it until the math no longer makes sense.
 
Kepler said:
I think they go hand in hand. As the Rust Belt depopulates the dead-enders will be Hannity and Rush listeners, pining for the days of domestic violence and lynchings. South Carolina without the pretty girls.

<img src="https://gamecocksonline.com/images/2018/10/6/2018_19_Carolina_Girls.jpg" height="500" >
Click to expand...

How sad.... one a-girl (maybe if that, could be a dude....ugh)
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Rover said:
I wouldn't be too quick to dump the entire Rust Belt. From my perspective a coalition of young liberals + educated voters + non white urban dwellers + unions ought to carry the day still in WI, MI and PA just like it does in say Minny. Goopers didn't abandon Indiana or North Carolina because they lost them for the first time in eons back in 2008. I suggest we take a similar stance for states that Dems had won repeatedly from 1992-2012 and where they control every elected statewide office except for one Senate seat.

Regarding Ohio, you're p!ssing away too many House seats if you don't compete. I too don't like the trends there but you can't give Nazis free reign without any pushback in a state that large.
Click to expand...

I'm not in favor of dumping it until it becomes noncompetitive. But the writing's on the wall that that will happen eventually.

OTOH, by then we should have the entire eastern seaboard except SC.

Anyway, we will eventually reach the end of this alignment. The Rust Belt moving blue to red is part of it; the southwest moving red to blue is part of it. On the whole a very good trade in terms of population.

Beyond that, the Sixth Party System (the post-Reagan identification of the GOP with reaction and religion and the Democratic party with progress and science) itself will eventually end, and the parties will be unrecognizable in another 50 years, as may be America. We may for instance be finally moving towards bifurcation. We are at least headed for the financial and political centers of power in the US to move from the Accela corridor to California, as the Pacific becomes far more important than the Atlantic, and as Europe fades and Asia surges. In 50 years, the rest of the US may be reduced to California's backwater. In 100 America will be plurality Latino and secondarily Asian, with my pale brethren a respectable but no longer dominant third (Sorry, blacks. You're still f-cked.), though by then race will be so mixed it won't even register for most people except at the margins.
 
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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Rover said:
Regarding Ohio, you're p!ssing away too many House seats if you don't compete. I too don't like the trends there but you can't give Nazis free reign without any pushback in a state that large.
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Only 4 of Ohio's 16 seats are held by Democrats, and that held for at least the last two elections. The 4 seats would not likely change because they are solidly Democratic. Ohio will possibly lose a seat after the next census and the districts will be redrawn under new legislation that has a fairly good chance to lessen the horribly gerrymandered districts now in effect. There's a good possibility Ohio might be closer to a 50-50 split next time around as far as the House goes. As far as presidential politics go, North Carolina is more likely to go blue in 2020 than Ohio. For the time being, this state is made up of exactly the types of voters who will love trump even if he is banging his or her daughter or wife while Putin is relieving himself on him. It isn't just that they are in the majority here -- whatever size it my be -- it is that they are ALL IN on trump. He isn't seeing any of his support peeled away like we saw with republicans in some suburban areas.
 
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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Kepler said:
I think they go hand in hand. As the Rust Belt depopulates the dead-enders will be Hannity and Rush listeners, pining for the days of domestic violence and lynchings. South Carolina without the pretty girls.

<img src="https://gamecocksonline.com/images/2018/10/6/2018_19_Carolina_Girls.jpg" height="500" >
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And there's our own Ann Coulter front row center.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Can you creepy old dudes get back to discussing candidates please ;) :D
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

@DouthatNYT: A couple of points in response to this @ed_kilgore essay. First, I didn't talk about Obama specifically in the column he cites, but my basic view is that Obama ran as a cultural centrist in '08 and then abandoned that ground across his presidency.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/03/democrats-have-moved-with-the-country-on-cultural-issues.html

@DouthatNYT: The Obama '08 campaign did serious outreach to evangelicals and Catholics, talked about common ground on abortion, took an enforcement-first position on immigration, etc.

@DouthatNYT: By 2012 the WH seemed to have given up on that approach. The Obamacare/abortion debate and then the HHS mandate fight kneecapped pro-life Dems, and the WH shifted into "war on women" mode, scoffing at religious-liberty anxieties, picking fights with Catholic bishops, etc.

@DouthatNYT: Then the second term, in part bc Obama was balked on econ policy, was thick with efforts to use bureaucracy to advance cultural liberalism combined with a liberal (in both senses) use of executive power on immigration.

@DouthatNYT: Which dovetailed w/a larger cultural "awokening," in campus activism/BLM/Samantha Bee-fication of pop culture -- and then was followed by a Hillary Clinton campaign that wrote off pro-life/evangelical voters, to the dismay of BHO's faith adviser:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/post...gelical-votes-than-clinton-he-asked-for-them/

@DouthatNYT: These shifts weren't confined to the left; they were connected to a larger culturally-liberal shift in the nation as a whole. And I agree w/Kilgore that on SSM, Dem politicians trailed that shift till 2012 or so. But ...

@DouthatNYT: ... in general between Obama's 2008 campaign and HRC's 2016 run there was a pretty big shift from courting religious and cultural conservatives to writing them off and banking on the new coalition. And over the same period the Dems did not win more elections; they won fewer.

@DouthatNYT: This seems like pretty strong circumstantial evidence that liberalism's leaders, political and cultural, have moved left faster than the country. Especially since -- here, again, I agree with Kilgore -- the GOP wasn't making a bid for the cultural center over this period either.

@DouthatNYT: A genuinely culturally-centrist Democratic Party would have crushed Donald Trump. He was not crushed, therefore Kilgore's confidence in his party's centrism seems misplaced. I am certainly guilty of returning to my hobbyhorses -- but I also think I'm right.
 
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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

@DamonLinker: Since I wrote a four-column series on the political center this week, I quite like this thread, which echoes some of my arguments. Read Ross. Then read ME, starting here:

https://theweek.com/articles/827000/manifesto-new-american-center

https://theweek.com/articles/827270/what-genuinely-centrist-position-economy

https://theweek.com/articles/827449/search-new-center-culture-war

https://theweek.com/articles/827673/how-new-american-center-sees-world
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

I am stunned that some random conservative wishes the Democrats would not move so far left.

Concern noted.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

joecct said:
This seems like pretty strong circumstantial evidence that liberalism's leaders, political and cultural, have moved left faster than the country.
Click to expand...

It seems strange that leaders would be out in front of anything.
 
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