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2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Guys, Dems need to coalesce around a set of issues (not 1000 issues, but a select few really important ones) that have broad based appeal to all ends of the spectrum from Sanders to Manchin and everyone in between. What are those? Of importance are 1) voter rights, 2) expanded healthcare, and 3) higher taxes on the uber rich. Then band together from the expected divisive attacks from Chump and his Russian allies.

Do that and the states fall into place. GOP got completely wiped out in statewide races in PA, MI, and WI so much so that the only statewide elected official in all 3 of those states is Ron Johnson who already announced his retirement 3 years from now.

Having said that, I wouldn't dismiss AZ, NC, IA, FL or even GA just yet. 2016 campaign got ahead of itself by 2 years but the attention paid to those states did come to fruition particularly in Arizona with a Senate win, a couple of House seats, and a few downballot statewide races. This in a place Dems haven't had success in since Bill Clinton's re-election campaign. Iowa saw 2 House seats flip leaving a 3 Dems - 1 Nazi delegation ;) while in NC Dems control most key positions (Gov,AG, SoS, Auditor). Dems aren't going to be hurting for money and I want to see all of these places contested. Chump has little ability to win beyond what he did in 2016. I'm tempted to blow off Ohio but aside from that I want to see max pressure not just in PA-MI-WI but also IA-AZ-NC-FL-GA and even TX not that I expect to win the last one but it might get a few more Dems over the top in contested House races.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Guys, Dems need to coalesce around a set of issues (not 1000 issues, but a select few really important ones) that have broad based appeal to all ends of the spectrum from Sanders to Manchin and everyone in between. What are those? Of importance are 1) voter rights, 2) expanded healthcare, and 3) higher taxes on the uber rich. Then band together from the expected divisive attacks from Chump and his Russian allies.

Do that and the states fall into place. GOP got completely wiped out in statewide races in PA, MI, and WI so much so that the only statewide elected official in all 3 of those states is Ron Johnson who already announced his retirement 3 years from now.

Having said that, I wouldn't dismiss AZ, NC, IA, FL or even GA just yet. 2016 campaign got ahead of itself by 2 years but the attention paid to those states did come to fruition particularly in Arizona with a Senate win, a couple of House seats, and a few downballot statewide races. This in a place Dems haven't had success in since Bill Clinton's re-election campaign. Iowa saw 2 House seats flip leaving a 3 Dems - 1 Nazi delegation ;) while in NC Dems control most key positions (Gov,AG, SoS, Auditor). Dems aren't going to be hurting for money and I want to see all of these places contested. Chump has little ability to win beyond what he did in 2016. I'm tempted to blow off Ohio but aside from that I want to see max pressure not just in PA-MI-WI but also IA-AZ-NC-FL-GA and even TX not that I expect to win the last one but it might get a few more Dems over the top in contested House races.

I believe in 50 states and all that but I think AZ is wasted money this time. If AZ is in the picture the race is long over, anyway.

In order I would target:

1. WI
2. IA
3. PA
4. FL
5. MI
6. NC
7. GA
8. AZ
9. TX

Both FL and PA are 2-3 slots higher than they would be except their size makes them good places to force the Nazis to waste resources.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

I believe in 50 states and all that but I think AZ is wasted money this time. If AZ is in the picture the race is long over, anyway.

In order I would target:

1. WI
2. IA
3. PA
4. FL
5. MI
6. NC
7. GA
8. AZ
9. TX

Both FL and PA are 2-3 slots higher than they would be except their size makes them good places to force the Nazis to waste resources.

Michigan before Florida.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Michigan before Florida.

Quite possibly. My intuition is MI is following OH into Tundra Appalachia, but I've nothing real to back it up.

Something to think about from that table. If those red swings represented Hillary Hate, we could really have something downticket in 2020.
 
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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Quite possibly. My intuition is MI is following OH into Tundra Appalachia, but I've nothing real to back it up.

Something to think about from this table:

<img src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9b/Presidential_Election_Results_Swing_by_State_from_2012_to_2016.svg/600px-Presidential_Election_Results_Swing_by_State_from_2012_to_2016.svg.png">



If
those red swings represent Hillary Hate, we could really have something downticket in 2020.

Florida I would put at the end of the list to be honest. After this past election they're a complete waste of time.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Florida I would put at the end of the list to be honest. After this past election they're a complete waste of time.

I think a big problem in Florida, as well as Ohio, is a completely sh itty and inept state party that's been useless for like the past 25 years. Dems keep losing squeakers in FL and IMO its because whoever's running things down there (DWS?) can't find their a ss with both hands. Rebuilding in both of those places is a must.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

I believe in 50 states and all that but I think AZ is wasted money this time. If AZ is in the picture the race is long over, anyway.

In order I would target:

1. WI
2. IA
3. PA
4. FL
5. MI
6. NC
7. GA
8. AZ
9. TX

Both FL and PA are 2-3 slots higher than they would be except their size makes them good places to force the Nazis to waste resources.

I assume “IA” is a misspelling.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

I believe in 50 states and all that but I think AZ is wasted money this time. If AZ is in the picture the race is long over, anyway.

In order I would target:

1. WI
2. IA
3. PA
4. FL
5. MI
6. NC
7. GA
8. AZ
9. TX

Both FL and PA are 2-3 slots higher than they would be except their size makes them good places to force the Nazis to waste resources.

NC is now but IMO its too early for TX, GA and AZ. And FL always seems just out of reach. That's why I pin 2020 on winning back WI, IA, PA and MI.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

NC is now but IMO its too early for TX, GA and AZ. And FL always seems just out of reach. That's why I pin 2020 on winning back WI, IA, PA and MI.

WI, PA, and MI you have the best shot at and that's all that was needed for Hillary. The rest is gravy.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

NC is now but IMO its too early for TX, GA and AZ. And FL always seems just out of reach. That's why I pin 2020 on winning back WI, IA, PA and MI.

Pretty much. I don't see any immediate counterbalance to that bloc. They're going to matter for 2, maybe 3 more elections.

The future, though, is the southwest: AZ then TX. Th Rust Belt is crashing towards being a snowy extension of the SE, as they continue to lose jobs and become much older and whiter. What was the key to the economic vitality of the Rust Belt? The Great Lakes and inland water transport. But now none of that matters anymore, and heavy industry has moved to China or robotics, so there's no longer any reason to live there. The weather is awful and there's no counter-balance, so it will become a dirtier, uglier version of the white enclaves in the Mountain West.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Pretty much. I don't see any immediate counterbalance to that bloc. They're going to matter for 2, maybe 3 more elections.

The future, though, is the southwest: AZ then TX. Th Rust Belt is crashing towards being a snowy extension of the SE, as they continue to lose jobs and become much older and whiter. What was the key to the economic vitality of the Rust Belt? The Great Lakes and inland water transport. But now none of that matters anymore, and heavy industry has moved to China or robotics, so there's no longer any reason to live there. The weather is awful and there's no counter-balance, so it will become a dirtier, uglier version of the white enclaves in the Mountain West.

And then everyone races back here when the Colorado River dries up in thirty years.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

And then everyone races back here when the Colorado River dries up in thirty years.

By then they'll be going to wherever the next America is. Democratic China, perhaps. You had your run; don't complain.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

I think a big problem in Florida, as well as Ohio, is a completely sh itty and inept state party that's been useless for like the past 25 years. Dems keep losing squeakers in FL and IMO its because whoever's running things down there (DWS?) can't find their a ss with both hands. Rebuilding in both of those places is a must.

That is definitely part of the problem.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

The future, though, is the southwest: AZ then TX. Th Rust Belt is crashing towards being a snowy extension of the SE, as they continue to lose jobs and become much older and whiter. What was the key to the economic vitality of the Rust Belt? The Great Lakes and inland water transport. But now none of that matters anymore, and heavy industry has moved to China or robotics, so there's no longer any reason to live there. The weather is awful and there's no counter-balance, so it will become a dirtier, uglier version of the white enclaves in the Mountain West.

From a pop trend, yes. Electorally, not so much. Individual states will come and go - VA, AZ and maybe TX some day.

From IA to PA (included because its behaving like a midwesterner), the 111 electoral vote (40% of the white house) midwest is leaning liberal but braindraining towards purple. And importantly, its Trump's gateway.
 
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