2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

Let's not get Moe started again...

Nice talk.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

I actually agree with a lot of this. Some of my posting on places like Kos is rear-guard action trying to keep our own forces from engaging too negatively with other Dems. But I gotta say, in the current climate that's mostly in self-defense now. In 2016 it was a rock fight with the Clintonistas but now it's dog pile on the rabbit with the party insiders and the remaining timeserver Clintonistas blaming all Sanders supporters because they don't want to look in the mirror. (Obama, very weirdly, left almost no legacy infrastructure at all. He was not fecund. There are no "Obamites.")

All of which is why I wish Sanders himself had stepped aside and gone balls deep into Warren. She's definitely a watered-down, capitalist-friendly version of Sanders, but she's the best we are going to do in this Timeline and she can be a bulwark against the Neoliberal pearl-clutching Clinton influence in the party.

The Democratic wing of the Democratic party has been out of power for a long time, and we are making some mistakes (the attacks on Pelosi were a bad self-pwn). And as you say, this new crop will learn with experience. I don't think they'll be as readily corrupted as the Boomers were. The Left activism I see now comes from a far more sincere place than the cloying pretensions of Generation Woodstock and is much less likely to be diverted into the self-absorption of that group. Today's Left actually seems to care more about others than themselves because they weren't raised with a silver spoon.

Agreed...unless the wrong leadership takes hold. If someone like AOC becomes the leader of the New Dems they are in for prosperity. If they are of the sort of the whiny snowflakes that attacked Chelsea Clinton for denouncing Antisemitism and blaming her for the deaths of Muslims...well hold on to your hat it is going to be a bumpy ride. The Middle isnt the enemy, they just need to take a backseat until things are put back in order.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

The Middle isnt the enemy, they just need to take a backseat until things are put back in order.

Absolutely. We have reached the nirvana of full agreement.

Amazing what happens when interlocutors respect each other and aren't selfish a-holes.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

The problem Sanders is having is that many of his core supporters graduated and got jobs in the past 4 years! If you're 22 and fresh out of college but working at Starbucks with your degree in Latin or Fashion Design, the idea of taxing everyone making 50K a more a year to the hilt probably sounds good because you're a little bitter.

Fast forward several years later. You have a job in the city and have moved out of mom's basement. Maybe you've started out at 50K a year but you don't exactly feel "rich" nor do you want to be taxed extra to pay for universal basic income. You probably also don't consider yourself to be a "plute" even though your former friends who are still driving uber while living with their parents consider you to be one. That, and the general jerkiness of the average Sanders supporter, is what's killing the old coot's campaign.

I will pay a higher rate if the money goes to things that make us all better. Some spending needs to be cut as well obviously. That is the key. You dont need to raise rates astronomically if you just get the budget back in order. That needs to be the message.

 

[trixR4kids]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

Agreed...unless the wrong leadership takes hold. If someone like AOC becomes the leader of the New Dems they are in for prosperity. If they are of the sort of the whiny snowflakes that attacked Chelsea Clinton for denouncing Antisemitism and blaming her for the deaths of Muslims...well hold on to your hat it is going to be a bumpy ride. The Middle isnt the enemy, they just need to take a backseat until things are put back in order.

Denouncing anti-semitism that never actually happened. And if Chelsea and friends are gonna fabricate stories of anti-semitism then don't get butthurt when the other side does the same thing and calls her out for anti-muslim bigotry.

And yes, when you put, "as an American", while responding to Ilhan, I could genuinely see how that could be construed as anti-Muslim. There's a far better argument for that than Ilhan's quotes being "anti-semitic" when in reality they're just anti-zionist or anti-AIPAC. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Co-signed as an American. We should expect all elected officials, regardless of party, and all public figures to not traffic in anti-Semitism.</p>— Chelsea Clinton (@ChelseaClinton) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChelseaClinton/status/1094773371823366145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 11, 2019</a></blockquote>
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[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

Denouncing anti-semitism that never actually happened. And if Chelsea and friends are gonna fabricate stories of anti-semitism then don't get butthurt when the other side does the same thing and calls her out for anti-muslim bigotry.

Sure it didnt. Funny how it is AntiSemitism when some group you deem not pure enough (Politico) does it to Bernie though...must be a coincidence. (they are both equally bad according to Jewish Community...but what would they know amirite)

And show me where Chelsea said anything "Anti-Muslim" or with "bigotry". You cant cause she didnt.

Here is the tweet:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Co-signed as an American. We should expect all elected officials, regardless of party, and all public figures to not traffic in anti-Semitism.</p>— Chelsea Clinton (@ChelseaClinton) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChelseaClinton/status/1094773371823366145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 11, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Yeah she is truly trying to bring down the Muslims! Those NYU Snowflakes sure did nail it! Not even Dubya was so Anti-Muslim!!


Keep trying though...I am sure "Anti-Muslim Bigotry" is why Ilhan screwed up her taxes as well.

Oh and before you somehow turn this into me trafficking in "Anti-Muslim Bigotry" any racism is wrong. I dont want any discriminated against. (and I voted for Ilhan!)

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Pretty irresponsible by Sanders campaign manager <a href="https://twitter.com/fshakir?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@fshakir</a> to endorse the theory that polls are "oversampling" older voters. Short THREAD follows: <a href="https://t.co/4QPT2horxy">https://t.co/4QPT2horxy</a></p>— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1138842724772323328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 12, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">For instance, Sanders is doing worse with voters who are paying a lot of attention to the campaign, which might be a sign that he'll *lose* ground with the actual electorate (or in likely voter polls) as compared with the registered voter polls you see now.</p>— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1138842742082158593?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 12, 2019</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Overall, I remain taken by surprise at how taken by surprise the Sanders campaign seems to be that Biden is polling in front of them. A lot will change between now and Iowa and polls could be off even then, but they seem to have a lot of wishful thinking in lieu of a strategy.</p>— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1138842744791678978?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 12, 2019</a></blockquote>
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[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

(and I voted for Ilhan!)

She's your Muslim friend that every Democrat must have?

The tables have turned on Bernie. Now his people are the ones acting like the girl in Poltergeist screaming "WHAT'S HAPPENING?!?!" ever since Biden entered the race.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

She's your Muslim friend that every Democrat must have?

Hey, there are four on my 12-person trivia team. In fact now I think of it we only have one Christian.

Cuz, ya know, smart.

The tables have turned on Bernie. Now his people are the ones acting like the girl in Poltergeist screaming "WHAT'S HAPPENING?!?!" ever since Biden entered the race.

I begin to think Sanders doesn't have a campaign team but more of the Space Monkeys set up from Fight Club. They're really not doing much of anything. Maybe he's just in there to keep the candidates honest and committed to TEH MARCH OF WORLD SOCIALISM!!!1! (which, well, good).

 

[Rover]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

To be fair I think everyone, myself included, is surprised by Biden's staying power. A lot of campaigns and media wiseguys were either trying to create or buying into the narrative that Biden's support is a mile wide and an inch deep, and that he can never win the nomination of the "new" Democratic party. That may very well turn out to be true, but he's clearly inside the heads of some rival campaigns more than others. The bottom line is he's unmatched in name recognition and has thus far earned the backing of non-white voters. That allows him to compete in places without setting up an extensive campaign infrastructure. Will that be decisive? Who knows, but its an advantage that he has over everyone else in the field except for Sanders and maybe Warren.

 

[trixR4kids]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

Sure it didnt. Funny how it is AntiSemitism when some group you deem not pure enough (Politico) does it to Bernie though...must be a coincidence. (they are both equally bad according to Jewish Community...but what would they know amirite)

When have I ever said anything about anti-semitism towards Bernie? It's literally never happened.

edit: forgot about the blatant politico anti-semitism where they took down the tweet and apologized. That was actually an accurate statement though.

And show me where Chelsea said anything "Anti-Muslim" or with "bigotry". You cant cause she didnt.

Here is the tweet:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Co-signed as an American. We should expect all elected officials, regardless of party, and all public figures to not traffic in anti-Semitism.</p>— Chelsea Clinton (@ChelseaClinton) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChelseaClinton/status/1094773371823366145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 11, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

"As an American" in reply to Ilhan alludes to Ilhan not being an American or at the very least I can see how it could be interpreted that way even if that wasn't necessarily her intent.

Either way there's more substance to that claim than the claim that Ilhan is anti-semitic.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

"As an American" in reply to Ilhan alludes to Ilhan not being an American or at the very least I can see how it could be interpreted that way....

Sure, if you're stoned to the bejeezus.

 

[trixR4kids]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

Why would you say, "as an American", in that context?

 

[trixR4kids]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

Also Nate Silver is laughably bad as a political pundit.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

Why would you say, "as an American", in that context?

Chelsea Clinton identifies herself as being an American?

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

Also Nate Silver is laughably bad as a political pundit.

I don't agree with you at all. Nate is great at numbers and he's great at communicating them. Everybody left, right, and center finds a reason to hate him because sometimes the facts step on their pet theories.

Facts > beliefs. Don't mistake what you think for what's true.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

Also Nate Silver is laughably bad as a political pundit.

Boy, you sure do love being Mr. Edgy Opinions, don't you?

 

[trixR4kids]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

Chelsea Clinton identifies herself as being an American?

No ****, leave that part out then since nobody is questioning that and there's no reason to phrase it that way

I don't agree with you at all. Nate is great at numbers and he's great at communicating them. Everybody left, right, and center finds a reason to hate him because sometimes the facts step on their pet theories.

Facts > beliefs. Don't mistake what you think for what's true.

There is some validity to the claim that olds are being over sampled in a lot of these polls if the exit polls from the midterms are even remotely accurate. Then there's this laugher:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">For instance, Sanders is doing worse with voters who are paying a lot of attention to the campaign, which might be a sign that he'll *lose* ground with the actual electorate (or in likely voter polls) as compared with the registered voter polls you see now.</p>— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href="https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1138842742082158593?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 12, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Like sure, there's probably a bunch of people who have CNN on all day in the background who think they're paying close attention to the campaign but couldn't even tell you what the obvious differences are between the various candidates in terms of policy. It's basically meaningless and trying to extrapolate anything from it like he is is silly. And let's not even get into his self delusion that he's some type of strategist lmao.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

Like sure, there's probably a bunch of people who have CNN on all day in the background who think they're paying close attention to the campaign but couldn't even tell you what the obvious differences are between the various candidates in terms of policy. It's basically meaningless and trying to extrapolate anything from it like he is is silly.

You are speculating about his methodology to claim he is just speculating. Do the research before making claims. I understand you don't like his conclusions. The fact that you don't like them has absolutely no bearing on their substance.

And let's not even get into his self delusion that he's some type of strategist lmao.

I have never seen either him or Harry Enten present themselves as anything but statisticians who understand and try to explain data. The conclusions I have seen them draw have been modest and well-supported. On the science <---> opinion continuum they are very much to the science side.

If you're going to challenge them on methodology or on their extrapolations then do so specifically citing their metrics and indices, goodness of fit, robustness, and confidence intervals. This is math. Your opinion doesn't mean jack sh-t compared to math.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democrat Challengers Part II: There Can Be Only One

Why would you say, "as an American", in that context?

Here is a wild idea...cause she is an American?

Again I find it funny...you say when Ilhan said similar things about Jews that she didnt mean it that way. (ya know being beholden to a foreign country and all) Yet here you are doing the exact same thing to Chelsea. I wonder why that is...

And BTW I said Ilhan was stupid and she should parse her words better but probably NOT Antisemitic when she made her comments. (I bet you can go back and find my posts) I also said Politico's cartoon was a bit overblown but they need to be smarter than that.