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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

ScottK said:
Again, one model, on a 6-day forecast, that you interpreted incorrectly. But hey, apparently, you're an expert now too.
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<img src=https://i.imgur.com/xat2cDg.jpg?2> a
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

The Marines are evacuating Parris Island. If the Marines look at something and decide "Screw that, we're leaving" then its probably a good idea to leave too.
 
ScottK said:
Except that they do. We get calls all the time from clients who read our forecasts and then call us and say "but so and so said this" or "I saw on the internet". I then have to take the time to explain what I already put in the forecast again to these people.
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Let me get this straight. You're bothered that the internet causes your clients to waste your time, so you decide the appropriate thing to do is to use more of your valuable time to shout at the internet?
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

GrinCDXX said:
Let me get this straight. You're bothered that the internet causes your clients to waste your time, so you decide the appropriate thing to do is to use more of your valuable time to shout at the internet?
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Believe it or not, I do read this board when I'm not at work.
 
ScottK said:
Except that they do. We get calls all the time from clients who read our forecasts and then call us and say "but so and so said this" or "I saw on the internet". I then have to take the time to explain what I already put in the forecast again to these people.
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People like the weather. If they didn't your have no clients:D

And at least they don't call you needIedlck;)
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

I knew you'd be right on this. :D

<img src="https://media.giphy.com/media/K9b2WiPZi0ZjO/giphy.gif"></img>
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

:D

I could have added that it hit with 107-kt sustained 120-130 gusts. But then that’s just piling on.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

To be fair to Scott, he is right that models (like all forecasts) are often inaccurate, especially several days in advance. They are largely based on history and trends, with current conditions factored in. Those trends seem to be going out the window as the planet continues to warm each year, but they do exist for a reason.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
To be fair to Scott, he is right that models (like all forecasts) are often inaccurate, especially several days in advance. They are largely based on history and trends; trends which seem to be going out the window as the planet continues to warm each year. But they do exist for a reason.
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It's like Sabermetrics in baseball... If you look at individual cases, you will find errors... Look at 20 years as a whole, and the accuracy shines through...
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
To be fair to Scott, he is right that models (like all forecasts) are often inaccurate, especially several days in advance. They are largely based on history and trends, with current conditions factored in. Those trends seem to be going out the window as the planet continues to warm each year, but they do exist for a reason.
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Of course he’s not wrong there. But him being a complete pompous butthole kind of sours the whole thing.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

dxmnkd316 said:
:D

I could have added that it hit with 107-kt sustained 120-130 gusts. But then that’s just piling on.
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Should I point out that it was not a "direct hit" as you claimed it was going to be, but passed about 100 miles to the south, which is what I said it was going to do? It was a large storm and they got hit hard, but it was by no means a "direct hit". Also, according to the official observations from Hong Kong, they had sustained winds of 60 knots with a gust to 84 knots in the city. There were unofficial reports of 107 mph winds, not 107 knot winds, but, why should details matter?
 
ScottK said:
Should I point out that it was not a "direct hit" as you claimed it was going to be, but passed about 100 miles to the south, which is what I said it was going to do? It was a large storm and they got hit hard, but it was by no means a "direct hit". Also, according to the official observations from Hong Kong, they had sustained winds of 60 knots with a gust to 84 knots in the city. There were unofficial reports of 107 mph winds, not 107 knot winds, but, why should details matter?
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He never claimed it was going to be a direct hit. He simply posted to watch out for it, because he saw a prediction that had it as a direct hit. You sir, are a tool.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

GrinCDXX said:
He never claimed it was going to be a direct hit. He simply posted to watch out for it, because he saw a prediction that had it as a direct hit. You sir, are a tool.
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He didn't? You sure?

dxmnkd316 said:
I know this is Atlantic, but watch out for Typhoon Mangkhut. It's currently predicted to have a direct hit on Hong Kong (sideswipe Taiwan) and be well in excess of the equivalent Cat 1. Could be a super typhoon on landfall.

These are very long-range forecasts but yikes.
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Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

ScottK said:
He didn't? You sure?
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Yes, I'm sure. Saying "it's currently predicted" is not the same thing as claiming it's going to happen. In fact, his use of the word "currently" implicitly acknowledges the presence of uncertainty.

edit: And more: "These are very long range forecasts". Why do you think he added that qualification, genius?
 
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Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

GrinCDXX said:
Yes, I'm sure. Saying "it's currently predicted" is not the same thing as claiming it's going to happen. In fact, his use of the word "currently" implicitly acknowledges the presence of uncertainty.

edit: And more: "These are very long range forecasts". Why do you think he added that qualification, genius?
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Except, that it wasn't predicted at all to make a direct hit. He tried to qualify it by saying that one model did, but I also pointed that the model in question wasn't even showing that.
 
ScottK said:
Except, that it wasn't predicted at all to make a direct hit. He tried to qualify it by saying that one model did, but I also pointed that the model in question wasn't even showing that.
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Whether or not his post was accurate is beside the point, which is that he didn't claim what you said he claimed.
 
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