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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

I know this is Atlantic, but watch out for Typhoon Mangkhut. It's currently predicted to have a direct hit on Hong Kong (sideswipe Taiwan) and be well in excess of the equivalent Cat 1. Could be a super typhoon on landfall.

These are very long-range forecasts but yikes.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
I know this is Atlantic, but watch out for Typhoon Mangkhut. It's currently predicted to have a direct hit on Hong Kong (sideswipe Taiwan) and be well in excess of the equivalent Cat 1. Could be a super typhoon on landfall.

These are very long-range forecasts but yikes.
Click to expand...

Mookie is heading to HK in March after Australia. Not hurricane season then, is it?
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

dxmnkd316 said:
I know this is Atlantic, but watch out for Typhoon Mangkhut. It's currently predicted to have a direct hit on Hong Kong (sideswipe Taiwan) and be well in excess of the equivalent Cat 1. Could be a super typhoon on landfall.

These are very long-range forecasts but yikes.
Click to expand...

A. It's not projected to be a direct hit on Hong Kong, but pass about 50 miles south of the city before making landfall about 75-100 miles to the west, and that's a 5-day forecast anyways.
B. It's projected to lose SuperTyphoon status before it even passes the northern Philippines - 2 full days before it *might* get close to Hong Kong. If it does cross the Northern Philippines (a very good possibility), that will weaken it even more, and make the odds of a Hong Kong hit even lower.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

ScottK said:
A. It's not projected to be a direct hit on Hong Kong, but pass about 50 miles south of the city before making landfall about 75-100 miles to the west, and that's a 5-day forecast anyways.
B. It's projected to lose SuperTyphoon status before it even passes the northern Philippines - 2 full days before it *might* get close to Hong Kong. If it does cross the Northern Philippines (a very good possibility), that will weaken it even more, and make the odds of a Hong Kong hit even lower.
Click to expand...

A. Yes, it was. Maybe not now. Forecasts change.
B. It was quite close at the time. Forecasts change.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

dxmnkd316 said:
A. Yes, it was. Maybe not now. Forecasts change.
B. It was quite close at the time. Forecasts change.
Click to expand...

A. Considering it's still 5 days away from being close to Hong Kong, that means it's just getting into the range of being the foreecasts showing that, and no official forecast showed a direct hit on the city.
B. No forecast had it being remotely close to SuperTyphoon status while it was forecast to be anywhere near Hong Kong.

But please, keep explaining to me, who's been doing this professionally for over 25 years, how "forecasts change".
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

ScottK said:
A. Considering it's still 5 days away from being close to Hong Kong, that means it's just getting into the range of being the foreecasts showing that, and no official forecast showed a direct hit on the city.
B. No forecast had it being remotely close to SuperTyphoon status while it was forecast to be anywhere near Hong Kong.

But please, keep explaining to me, who's been doing this professionally for over 25 years, how "forecasts change".
Click to expand...

The one I looked at yesterday did.
I think it was the european model. Trying to find it but this is the only ECMWF with previous runs that I normally go to. this was the closest model run to the time stamp.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...&region=ea&pkg=T850&runtime=2018091100&fh=120

110-kt winds immediately south of HK. Sorry, I was off by 10 knots.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

ScottK said:
A. Considering it's still 5 days away from being close to Hong Kong, that means it's just getting into the range of being the foreecasts showing that, and no official forecast showed a direct hit on the city.
B. No forecast had it being remotely close to SuperTyphoon status while it was forecast to be anywhere near Hong Kong.

But please, keep explaining to me, who's been doing this professionally for over 25 years, how "forecasts change".
Click to expand...

Scott, it's a college hockey message board. The stick up your butt has a stick up its butt.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

dxmnkd316 said:
The one I looked at yesterday did.
I think it was the european model. Trying to find it but this is the only ECMWF with previous runs that I normally go to. this was the closest model run to the time stamp.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...mwf®ion=ea&pkg=T850&runtime=2018091100&fh=120

110-kt winds immediately south of HK. Sorry, I was off by 10 knots.
Click to expand...

One model does not make an official forecast. In fact, one model at 5 days is usually off by an average of 300+ miles.

Also, that's 110 knots at 850mb, not the surface. Surface winds are usually about 80-90% of the 850mb winds. Plus, a Super Typhoon is 130 knots or more, so you were off by 30 knots or more. Plus, that wind is not "immediately south of HK", its about 200 miles southeast of HK. But hey, you were almost close.
 
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Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

St. Clown said:
Scott, it's a college hockey message board. The stick up your butt has a stick up its butt.
Click to expand...

The problem is, I've been getting this everywhere. People look at the forecast models online and automatically assume they know more than the actual meteorologists. I've had people telling me that what I'm saying was wrong "because the European model said this". That's great. Should I go into the doctor and get an X-ray and then tell him what I think is wrong, no matter what he says?
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

ScottK said:
The problem is, I've been getting this everywhere. People look at the forecast models online and automatically assume they know more than the actual meteorologists. I've had people telling me that what I'm saying was wrong "because the European model said this". That's great. Should I go into the doctor and get an X-ray and then tell him what I think is wrong, no matter what he says?
Click to expand...

Pretty much planet earth nowadays. You can google anything. And if you can google, you're an expert. People tell me how to do my job every day.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

ScottK said:
The problem is, I've been getting this everywhere. People look at the forecast models online and automatically assume they know more than the actual meteorologists. I've had people telling me that what I'm saying was wrong "because the European model said this". That's great. Should I go into the doctor and get an X-ray and then tell him what I think is wrong, no matter what he says?
Click to expand...
Or you could just take it with a grain of salt because people on the internet have no impact on your professional opinion. It's a simple matter of Settle down, Francis.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

ScottK said:
One model does not make an official forecast. In fact, one model at 5 days is usually off by an average of 300+ miles.
Click to expand...
My exact quote was:

dxmnkd316 said:
It's currently predicted to have a direct hit on Hong Kong (sideswipe Taiwan) and be well in excess of the equivalent Cat 1. Could be a super typhoon on landfall.

These are very long-range forecasts but yikes.
Click to expand...



ScottK said:
The problem is, I've been getting this everywhere. People look at the forecast models online and automatically assume they know more than the actual meteorologists. I've had people telling me that what I'm saying was wrong "because the European model said this". That's great. Should I go into the doctor and get an X-ray and then tell him what I think is wrong, no matter what he says?
Click to expand...

That's not at all what happened.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

St. Clown said:
Or you could just take it with a grain of salt because people on the internet have no impact on your professional opinion. It's a simple matter of Settle down, Francis.
Click to expand...

Except that they do. We get calls all the time from clients who read our forecasts and then call us and say "but so and so said this" or "I saw on the internet". I then have to take the time to explain what I already put in the forecast again to these people.
 
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Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

dxmnkd316 said:
My exact quote was:







That's not at all what happened.
Click to expand...

Again, one model, on a 6-day forecast, that you interpreted incorrectly. But hey, apparently, you're an expert now too.
 
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