Re: 2017 Frozen Four Ticket Purchase
When has the highest sale volume occurred in the past? I'd imagine that has to be coming up around priority 8-10 or so. Seems to be where you have the highest amount of serious, repeat shoppers.
It's a great question. Unfortunately, for those of us on the outside looking in, we're really just speculating. And in recent years the speculation has gotten tougher because the lottery threads receive fewer reports. It's been at least 7 years since anyone in the lottery was shut out of the building, so the decline in interest in the topic is understandable.
With that disclaimer out of the way, I've long believed that the demand in the Priority Lottery peaks twice. If you want, call it a bi-modal distribution. The first peak occurs a few levels below the top. The second, a few levels above the bottom. With relatively low sales volume in the middle.
However, that has been called into question by the surge in sales that apparently occurred at Levels 13 & 14. Why the new pattern? Again, it's just educated guesswork, but here are a few of thoughts:
Alternate Theory #1: High priority holders have skipped a few tournaments in recent years. The tournament has gone to Tampa twice in a five year period. For some, that's too far to travel. Then there was the FFFF in Detroit. Obvious issues. Finally, advance sales for Philly were soft. For all those reasons, maybe the first peak has moved down 2-3 Priority Levels. Before we started this lottery, I might have said we'll have a peak around Priority 17. But if this alternate theory is correct, maybe the first peak moved down to Level 14 or so.
The USCHO reports don't really support the alternate theory. But perhaps USCHO Posters are no longer a representative sample of the FF Fan Base as a whole. Or maybe it's even more basic. Perhaps the number of reports we now get is simply too small to give a reliable picture of the larger market.
Alternate Theory #2: We've been at this for 15 years. Priority Levels are based on a 20 year period. Maybe the peaks have simply flattened out as priority holders are spread out over more data points.
I'd be a 1st time buyer here and trying to figure out if it's worth it to get a priority point or to be cheap and play the secondary market.
Another great question. Several thoughts:
1. Ticket prices on the secondary market fluctuate with the participating teams. But for most recent tournaments, secondary market tickets have sold for
less than face value. That includes some great seats, as satyking says. And BTW, if you go that route, that's not being cheap. You're figuring out how to get good value in the marketplace. Two different things. If fair market value is below face value, getting tickets at fair market value isn't being cheap.
2. For the foreseeable future, the low priority levels will get Upper Bowl seating. Look ahead 10 years. Will Priority 10 (of 30) get you into the Lower Bowl? Maybe. But definitely iffy. And almost certainly not before. Is that attractive enough to draw you into the system? Your call.
3. The 2018 FF is in St. Paul. Based on 2011, having a priority point probably assures you'll get into the building. Hoping to buy from the public allotment with no points at all? A bit of a risk. Yes, there's still the secondary market. But circle back to the first point. If the U of MN qualifies for the 2018 Field, the secondary market suddenly becomes a sellers' market. Same with UND. So having at least one priority point (and making the early purchase) gives you a little bit of protection from being closed out of a tournament where demand spikes.
4. Beyond 2018, will having a priority point or two be a good insurance policy? Well, the NCAA hasn't announced tournament sites beyond 2018. So once again, we're speculating. But the pattern has been that the NCAA is very interested in having the FF in non-traditional cities. Translation? Not much risk of being closed out of those cities. Not much value to the insurance in those years.
Those are the issues as I see it. Polish up that crystal ball and have at it.
In 10 minutes, Priority 11 goes on the clock.
