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2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
Did a hurricane projection model touch you as a child? I'm not quite sure what your point with all your posts is. Should we ignore all the forecasts?
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I'm saying not to take them all verbatim. They're far from perfect, and usually wrong.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

ScottK said:
I'm saying not to take them all verbatim. They're far from perfect, and usually wrong.
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Maybe I missed it, but I don't see anyone suggesting these projections are written in stone. That being said, the projections do offer some guidance, yes? There is a strong hurricane coming, and there appears to be a good chance that it does some damage to Florida. But hey, if the projections are usually wrong, then you basically are saying we should ignore the projections/forecasts.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
Maybe I missed it, but I don't see anyone suggesting these projections are written in stone. That being said, the projections do offer some guidance, yes? There is a strong hurricane coming, and there appears to be a good chance that it does some damage to Florida. But hey, if the projections are usually wrong, then you basically are saying we should ignore the projections/forecasts.
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All I've heard all evening is that the storm is heading for Miami, and people talking about the models showing this too. The reality is that the storm could end up 200+ miles from Miami, with only a few showers and breezy conditions there. I'm not saying to ignore them, but you've got people, most of whom don't truly know what those models are actually showing, talking about what a storm is going to do. This is the type of thing that makes my job that much harder.

Another example for you, since we're roughly 4 days or so before any potential impacts in south Florida. 4 days before Harvey made landfall as a Category 4, the models were in very good agreement that it would make landfall as a Category 1, just south of Brownsville. Yes, they models all had the storm stalling after it moved inland and dumping a ton of rain, so that part of the forecast was good, but they also had it over southern Texas. So if you took the models literally, there wasn't going to be too much of a problem in Houston. They models shifted northward again the next day, and eventually locked on, but the point remains. Taking any of these models verbatim that far out is a bad idea.

As my boss is fond of saying: "if the models were as good as people seem to think they are, there wouldn't be a need for meteorologists"
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

ScottK said:
All I've heard all evening is that the storm is heading for Miami, and people talking about the models showing this too.
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So what's your point?

Should nobody get ready for this storm??? I don't get it. Because the storm *might* miss Miami by 200 miles, they should not prepare?

Is it better to do nothing and hope, or prepare?

Given the destruction on various islands, it seems to me that preparing is a far better thing to do. Even if it misses by 200 miles.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

alfablue said:
So what's your point?

Should nobody get ready for this storm??? I don't get it. Because the storm *might* miss Miami by 200 miles, they should not prepare?

Is it better to do nothing and hope, or prepare?

Given the destruction on various islands, it seems to me that preparing is a far better thing to do. Even if it misses by 200 miles.
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Yeah, I still don't get his point either. Nobody is saying this is exactly what is going to happen. Indeed, what I have seen acknowledges the various paths the storm could take. Conversely, ScottK's posts come across as if he is saying that all of this is for nothing and the models are usually wrong so no reason to panic.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Talked with some family- there are 900k people without power in Puerto Rico. I suspect they are near San Juan.

The storm looks to clear Puerto Rico later tonight- it's speeding up a little.

For me, that's a good thing.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
Yeah, I still don't get his point either. Nobody is saying this is exactly what is going to happen. Indeed, what I have seen acknowledges the various paths the storm could take. Conversely, ScottK's posts come across as if he is saying that all of this is for nothing and the models are usually wrong so no reason to panic.
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The funny thing is- all of this information and forecasts should help people NOT panic. Worry and prepare, sure- but not panic.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
Yeah, I still don't get his point either. Nobody is saying this is exactly what is going to happen. Indeed, what I have seen acknowledges the various paths the storm could take. Conversely, ScottK's posts come across as if he is saying that all of this is for nothing and the models are usually wrong so no reason to panic.
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We started with this:

GrinCDXX said:
Most of the latest model tracks seem to be hinting at something dangerously close to a direct hit on the Miami area. I'm thinking that would probably be a bad outcome. Hopefully they keep moving east.
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I replied by commenting that the models on average are off by 200 miles at that time frame. Someone then asked if the model agreement changed that error. I pointed out how bad the models had done recently, and to not take them verbatim.

Of course people should prepare, but also remember, there's just as much chance that the storm misses Miami completely as there is that it hits. There's also the chance that it's much weaker, especially if it interacts with land, such as Cuba. All the hysteria I've seen online about how Irma is heading right for Miami is over-the-top though, especially since it is far from set in stone.
 
ScottK said:
We started with this:



I replied by commenting that the models on average are off by 200 miles at that time frame. Someone then asked if the model agreement changed that error. I pointed out how bad the models had done recently, and to not take them verbatim.

Of course people should prepare, but also remember, there's just as much chance that the storm misses Miami completely as there is that it hits. There's also the chance that it's much weaker, especially if it interacts with land, such as Cuba. All the hysteria I've seen online about how Irma is heading right for Miami is over-the-top though, especially since it is far from set in stone.
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Yes, we started with my post using such deterministic/absolute language like "hinting" and "close". Furthermore my post ends with an acknowledgement that the projected tracks may very well change. But you go right ahead and keep showing that strawman who's boss.

And no, you have not been hearing all night about how the storm is going to hit Miami...Not here at least. I can only surmise that those are the voices in your head.
 
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Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

ScottK said:
We started with this:



I replied by commenting that the models on average are off by 200 miles at that time frame. Someone then asked if the model agreement changed that error. I pointed out how bad the models had done recently, and to not take them verbatim.

Of course people should prepare, but also remember, there's just as much chance that the storm misses Miami completely as there is that it hits. There's also the chance that it's much weaker, especially if it interacts with land, such as Cuba. All the hysteria I've seen online about how Irma is heading right for Miami is over-the-top though, especially since it is far from set in stone.
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Fair enough. Although, I would point out that I haven't seen this hysteria that you speak of, and nobody seems to be talking that it is set in stone. However, you are almost certainly following this much closer than I am, and perhaps you are seeing more hysteria surrounding this hurricane.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

GrinCDXX said:
Yes, we started with my post using such deterministic/absolute language like "hinting" and "close". Furthermore my post ends with an acknowledgement that the projected tracks may very well change. But you go right ahead and keep showing that strawman who's boss.

And no, you have not been hearing all night about how the storm is going to hit Miami...Not here at least. I can only surmise that those are the voices in your head.
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Yes, because you know exactly what's on my Twitter and Facebook feeds, right?
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

ScottK said:
Yes, because you know exactly what's on my Twitter and Facebook feeds, right?
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To be clear, THIS is not twitter nor facebook. If you hadn't noticed.

Perhaps you should chastise them.

Right now, the best predictions do have it hitting Miami at cat 4 strength. No reason to take a dump on that prediction. Moreso because YOUR social media sucks.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Kepler said:
Is this because the FL / GA coast is a line so the waves likely hit obliquely while the gulf coast is an arc so the waves more likely hit directly? (If so then Savannah is f-cked.)
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That's a thing, water can pile up in areas like Florida's Big Bend but that's not what I mean. If you go here zoom a bit on Florida, and click Cat 1 vs. Cat 4 or 5 and you'll see the difference. SE Florida has higher ground than the west coast. Move up to South Carolina and you'll see why it's called the low country.


On the two Cat 4's in one season hitting the mainland... 2004 season Florida was hit with 4 major hurricanes. A 5, two 4's and a strong 3 all hit the state as a 4 and three very strong 3's. Massive damage all over. Will have to wait and see if Irma hits and what the strength is.


Most all meteorologists down here are saying essentially what Scott K was, not because Miami is in panic, but because the whole state is still under the gun. Still not sure if it will go east or stretch west. Speed and time of the turn are everything. I'm on the West coast and much less than 200 miles to Miami. Still can easily run over my house.

Really amazing Irma is still at a Cat 5.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

My sister waited almost an hour to get gas this morning at 6:00am.

At least she got some though as many stations are running out.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Gurtholfin said:
My sister waited almost an hour to get gas this morning at 6:00am.

At least she got some though as many stations are running out.
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Saw a report that only about 1 in 4 stations have gas in Dade and Broward. Also saw there was gridlock on 75 all the way up past Ocala earlier today. People are taking this thing very seriously which is good. State and local gov seems on top of preparations and erring heavily on the side of caution. My neighborhood is about half empty tonight.
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Good news is an exec order will be issued son for hugely amounts of money available for greater Miami to rebuild trump doral (and perhaps other properties)!!
 
Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Maybe God hates Trump. He has a mansion on St. Martin -- Next up is Mar-Lago.... Don't be surprised if Trump Winery is later in the week!
 
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