Re: 2017-18 St. Cloud State Season Thread - Second Attempt
Statistically speaking you're right. I was looking at a research study recently using an OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) regression model that examined favorite vs. underdog in single elimination contests in NCAA basketball with a large sample population consisting of 35 years of Final Four tournament regional semi-final and final games.
The study assumptions included the concept of equilibrium in which each player maximizes the probability of winning the tournament by a predictor variable of effort allocation decisions. Ability differences between players are therefore compressed in the opening round so upsets are more likely.
Higher effort in the semi-final increases the chance of making it to the final, but at the opportunity cost of a lower chance of succeeding in the final. A favorite plays a weak opponent in the semi-final, but is likely to face a tough opponent in the final, so it has a strong incentive to hold back.
Conversely, an underdog already plays a tough opponent in the semi-final, so it has less incentive to conserve effort for the final. Because of these different incentives, the study results indicated that in any symmetric Nash equilibrium underdogs exert more effort than favorites in the semi-final. Upsets in the first round are often the result of restrained effort by the favorite (especially since the NCAA's introduction of the "rest day" before the final).
EDIT:
The research above seems to have external validity given that for the 13th straight year, a No. 4 seed beat a No. 1 seed in this year's NCAA tournament.
Statistically speaking you're right. I was looking at a research study recently using an OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) regression model that examined favorite vs. underdog in single elimination contests in NCAA basketball with a large sample population consisting of 35 years of Final Four tournament regional semi-final and final games.
The study assumptions included the concept of equilibrium in which each player maximizes the probability of winning the tournament by a predictor variable of effort allocation decisions. Ability differences between players are therefore compressed in the opening round so upsets are more likely.
Higher effort in the semi-final increases the chance of making it to the final, but at the opportunity cost of a lower chance of succeeding in the final. A favorite plays a weak opponent in the semi-final, but is likely to face a tough opponent in the final, so it has a strong incentive to hold back.
Conversely, an underdog already plays a tough opponent in the semi-final, so it has less incentive to conserve effort for the final. Because of these different incentives, the study results indicated that in any symmetric Nash equilibrium underdogs exert more effort than favorites in the semi-final. Upsets in the first round are often the result of restrained effort by the favorite (especially since the NCAA's introduction of the "rest day" before the final).
EDIT:
The research above seems to have external validity given that for the 13th straight year, a No. 4 seed beat a No. 1 seed in this year's NCAA tournament.
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This one is more of a stinger than 2016, especially since this was projected by many to be SCSU's year (I certainly thought so).
