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2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Playing with Tony/Grant's tool, I get these results:

For Minnesota and Wisconsin to be on opposite sides of the bracket, either UND needs to win the WCHA, which renders UM 2nd and Wisco 4th, or Wisconsin advances to the final (and loses) and Harvard does not, or (Wisconsin, anyone other than BC and anyone other than Harvard) all win their conferences.

There is seemingly no way to get any changes in the top 4 teams, although order can change between MN/BC and HU/UW.

Nothing is settled in seeding among BU, QU and CCT

North Dakota cannot get in without winning their tourney.
 
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Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

My thinking eyeballing the rankings was that certainly Quinnipiac would have to win the ECAC to take home-ice from Harvard. Going by the straight PWR it is actually impossible, as Numbers observes.

And looking more closely at the numbers, I don't think there's even any way to rationalize home ice for Quinnipiac with more of a subjective assessment of the criteria. You'd have to have argue that a slight COP or TUC edge for Quinnipiac (does Quinnipiac even get that COP edge with a win over Clarkson?) then trumps Harvard's slight RPI edge and 2-1 Harvard H2H edge. I see zero chance of the committee making that assessment. So Harvard pretty much has NCAA home ice locked down as far as I can tell.
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

I'm about to blow y'all's mind.

This is the Pairwise only for games 1/1/15 through today:

Rank Team Comparisons Won RPI
1 Boston College 16 0.6713
2 Minnesota 15 0.6487
3 North Dakota 14 0.6331
4 Harvard 13 0.6264
5 Cornell 12 0.5774
6 Clarkson 11 0.5767
7 Boston University 10 0.5762
8 Quinnipiac 9 0.5647
9 Wisconsin 8 0.5490
10 St. Lawrence 7 0.5467
11 Minnesota-Duluth 6 0.5242
12 Princeton 5 0.5184
13 Bemidji State 4 0.5143
14 Mercyhurst 3 0.5141
15 Yale 2 0.5130
16 Northeastern 1 0.5088
17 Ohio State 0 0.5061

:eek: :eek: :eek:
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

TonyTheTiger20 said:
I'm about to blow y'all's mind.

This is the Pairwise only for games 1/1/15 through today:

Rank Team Comparisons Won RPI
1 Boston College 16 0.6713
2 Minnesota 15 0.6487
3 North Dakota 14 0.6331
4 Harvard 13 0.6264
5 Cornell 12 0.5774
6 Clarkson 11 0.5767
7 Boston University 10 0.5762
8 Quinnipiac 9 0.5647
9 Wisconsin 8 0.5490
10 St. Lawrence 7 0.5467
11 Minnesota-Duluth 6 0.5242
12 Princeton 5 0.5184
13 Bemidji State 4 0.5143
14 Mercyhurst 3 0.5141
15 Yale 2 0.5130
16 Northeastern 1 0.5088
17 Ohio State 0 0.5061

:eek: :eek: :eek:
Click to expand...

This helps explain why UND is confident heading into the weekend.
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

ARM said:
It removes most of the nonconference games, so it isn't all that relevant for a national ranking.
Click to expand...
Alright. This is the Pairwise including:

--All games after 1/1/15, AND
--ONLY nonconference games from before 1/1/15

Rank Team Comparisons Won RPI
1 Minnesota 16 0.6759
2 Boston College 15 0.6740
3 North Dakota 14 0.6252
4 Harvard 13 0.6142
5 Boston University 11 0.5817
6 Quinnipiac 11 0.5801
7 Wisconsin 10 0.5771
8 Clarkson 9 0.5680
9 Minnesota-Duluth 9 0.5656
10 Bemidji State 7 0.5553
11 Cornell 6 0.5534
12 St. Lawrence 5 0.5449
13 Mercyhurst 4 0.5385
14 Ohio State 3 0.5298
15 Yale 2 0.5140
16 Princeton 1 0.5135
17 Dartmouth 0 0.5096
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

The big result is that UW and UND essentially switch places. Why? All of their H2H results were in the first half, and while UND has been very hot in the 2nd half, UW has had trouble scoring.
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

TonyTheTiger20 said:
.. including the Nightmare Scenario for fans:
Click to expand...

BC vs. BU
Clarkson vs. WI
Quinnie vs. Harvard

I don't know why we would want those matchups, just rehash the regular season
although I like the MN vs. Mercyhurst part of it ( only because this hasn't happened for a number of years
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

pokechecker said:
BC vs. BU
Clarkson vs. WI
Quinnie vs. Harvard

I don't know why we would want those matchups, just rehash the regular season
although I like the MN vs. Mercyhurst part of it ( only because this hasn't happened for a number of years
Click to expand...

I agree. I like seeing new teams play @ UW. Clarkson had a very nice turnout of fans when they visited UW earlier this year, it was impressive, probably 3rd best behind the rodents and the beavers.
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

I figured it was time to do my simplistic meta-analysis ranking (otherwise known as the Pokechecker Index)

Rutter is the only poll to rank UMD top ten,
which doesn't exactly endorse the legitimacy of that poll :)

as you can see, BU is the biggest benefactor of the current NCAA ranking system
while UND is the most penalized by it


5.5=2-1-1.5-1 Boston College
6.5=1-2-1.5-2 Minnesota
12=3-3-3-3 Wisconsin
16=4-4-4-4 Harvard
23=7-6-5-5 Quinnipiac
24=8-5-6-7 Clarkson
27=5-8-8-6 North Dakota
31.5=9-7-6.5-9 Boston University
38=10-9-9-10 Cornell
47=11-10.5-13.5-12 Bemidji State

total(Rutter-coaches-NCAA-KRACH)
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

Assuming Syracuse holds on against Penn State:

--If Minnesota wins the WCHA, they will play Cuse/RIT
--If North Dakota wins the WCHA, BC will play Cuse/RIT
--If BC wins Hockey East and Minnesota does not win the WCHA, BC will play Cuse/RIT
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

TonyTheTiger20 said:
--If BC wins Hockey East and Minnesota does not win the WCHA, BC will play Cuse/RIT
Click to expand...
When BC blew out Harvard, it didn't seem likely that we'd see that result flip before season's end. BC also blew out Syracuse early on. Just saying.
 
Re: 2015 Pairwise Discussion & Predictions

I guess I'm rooting for Harvard tomorrow in order to drop Wisconsin to #4. I'm certainly not going to root against the Badgers when they're playing a team that wears green.
 
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