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2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Ralph Baer said:
It's interesting that this is the third consecutive TS to peter out before reaching the US this season. Not that I mind. :)
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That would be in line with the strong El Nino still forecasted to continue through the early winter months.
 
Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
That would be in line with the strong El Nino still forecasted to continue through the early winter months.
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Can you explain why those are related? It sounds almost like you're saying there are pressure centers over the continent that act like a sort of Maginot Line and break up the storms as they come in.
 
Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Kepler said:
Can you explain why those are related? It sounds almost like you're saying there are pressure centers over the continent that act like a sort of Maginot Line and break up the storms as they come in.
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In an El Nino you get strong westerly upper-level winds across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. This rips the top of the thunderstorms off, so they can't develop, which prevents tropical systems from developing. This year, the wind shear across the Caribbean has been at record high levels for most of the summer.
 
Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

ScottK said:
In an El Nino you get strong westerly upper-level winds across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. This rips the top of the thunderstorms off, so they can't develop, which prevents tropical systems from developing. This year, the wind shear across the Caribbean has been at record high levels for most of the summer.
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Interesting. Thank you.
 
Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Kepler said:
Interesting. Thank you.
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To add to his point, wind shear is the difference in wind speed at the surface to to upper levels of the atmosphere. If the wind speed is only 10 knots at the surface but 50 knots in the upper atmosphere, you get 40 knots of shear that will keep the thunderstorms away from the center of the storm effectively killing it or forcing it to transition into a more traditional system that develops over land.
 
Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Grace dissipated yesterday, with Henri expected to stay east of Bermuda.

It's very possible that the only way the US sees a landfall is through a gulf based system. Seems conditions are far too hostile in the eastern Caribbean for a system to survive and then meander through the islands after.
 
Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

joecct said:
If it tracks just a bit left, NYC could experience deja vu all over again
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I would say not. The major factor that attributed to Sandy's destruction is that she hit on an astronomical High Tide where Joaquin will not hit at that exact scenario.
 
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Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

hockeyplayer1015 said:
Lots of uncertainty right now. The euro model is the only one showing a path out to sea, but it is typically pretty accurate.
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It is? Not since about 2013. It's sucked for the last 2 winters and most of this hurricane season.
 
Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Tracking back east. Eastern tip of LI now in the path.

Donald Trump is keeping Joaquin out of America!!!
 
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