Re: 2014-15 College Football Part II: SEC vs World
Finally finished my NCAAF Pairwise. Here's what would have been the Top Ten on the day of the playoff selections:
1. Alabama - 127 - .6768
2. Florida St. - 126 - .6674
3. Ole Miss - 123 - .6557
4. Oregon - 123 - .6471
5. Auburn - 122 - .6570
6. Miss St - 122 - .6466
7. TCU - 119 - .6226
8. Boise - 118 - .6231
9. Baylor -117 - .6077
10. Ga Tech -116 - .6207
OSU finished 11, MSU at 15.
Unfortunately, it looks like the computers have an SEC bias. Due to about a third of the schedule of hockey and double the teams, this really ends up being polarized by certain variables depending on what you're comparing. Just based on the lack of crossover and whatnot I think this ends up being a better comparison for teams within conferences rather than the nation as a whole, but I'm going to tweak it a little bit to see if I can rid it of its pro-SEC anti-B1G bias.
One thing I may look at is the RPI multipliers. I went with the regular 25x50x25. For adjusted win percentage I followed the basketball model as they have similar winning percentages, so it's .6 for a home win, 1.4 for an away win, and 1.4 losses for home, .6 away. This obviously helped Ole Miss, as two of their three losses were on the road and they had a very strong schedule in terms of opponent's schedules.
I may also add an FCS component. Currently it only compares FBS vs FBS games, but that was when I was going to use someone else's RPI. After learning that the website is simply called RPI and their football ranking is only an index and not actual RPI, I decided to make my own. This actually ends up helping teams who play FCS schools, because they do not get the SOS weakener added in. However, I don't want to have to track the schedules of every FCS team and calculate all their stats, so what I may do is is simply create a team named "FCS" who ends up playing like 120 games. Since FCS schools are generally considered auto-wins no matter the opponent (NDSU one of the few exceptions) I don't think it will compromise the data if teams playing FCS end up with an opponent with a record of 7-113 or whatever it may end up being, because in actuality that ends up being the equivalent of playing Georgia St or UMass.
Edit: Errors are fun! Accidently had Miss St beating Bama, they should be 8 and TCU and Boise should move up one spot each.
