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2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

QU is a typo right?

By the way, random but if Harvard wins the ECAC they will jump BC

I think he means Mercyhurst (QU generally refers to Quinnipiac). Mercyhurst is a bus ride from Erie to Boston.
 
BU are still I think fundamentally a stronger team.
There seems to be a big difference between first-half BU and second-half BU, at least in terms of results. The Terriers were winning all the close ones in the first half, but they've either slipped a bit or improved less than others in 2014. Vermont is playing its best hockey now, so in terms of a one-shot deal, I don't see much separation between the BU and UVM.

It is likely all academic, because BC should win Hockey East.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

There seems to be a big difference between first-half BU and second-half BU, at least in terms of results. The Terriers were winning all the close ones in the first half, but they've either slipped a bit or improved less than others in 2014. Vermont is playing its best hockey now, so in terms of a one-shot deal, I don't see much separation between the BU and UVM.

It is likely all academic, because BC should win Hockey East.


Agree with Arm. BU has really fallen of the map in the second half. This is partly due to injuries to key personel. The game I watched vs BC, they looked vulnerable on D, and that is not a good recipe for play-off success.

of the underdogs mentioned in previous posts, both UVM and UMD have looked stronger in recent weeks than BU, so I'd give those teams a better chance of advancing than BU at this point. (UMD-Minny is always a somewhat unpredictable series, heated rivalry). IMHO the best chance for a top seed not winning their League title is in the ECAC (a real horse race there) and the CHA (take your pick, MU or RMU). It would be a major upset if either BC or Minny would not win their respective league title.

Having said all that, in a 1 and out type of tournament, anything can happen.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

It is likely all academic, because BC should win Hockey East.
The fact that BC has more NCAA quarterfinal wins / Frozen Fours (4) than Hockey East semifinal wins / final appearances (3) is one of the more remarkable stats of women's college hockey.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

The fact that BC has more NCAA quarterfinal wins / Frozen Fours (4) than Hockey East semifinal wins / final appearances (3) is one of the more remarkable stats of women's college hockey.

That is indeed a remarkable stat, Leading to the Title of TTT's thread.
 
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It would be a major upset if either BC or Minny would not win their respective league title.

Having said all that, in a 1 and out type of tournament, anything can happen.
And BC and UM are playing on neutral ice, while Tech and 'Hurst are at home.

The fact that BC has more NCAA quarterfinal wins / Frozen Fours (4) than Hockey East semifinal wins / final appearances (3) is one of the more remarkable stats of women's college hockey.
Such oddities lurk in the recesses of my mind every time I type that BC should win something. Either it demonstrates how much more emphasis the Eagles place on the national tourney, or the Hockey East field has been more daunting than we knew over the years.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Either it demonstrates how much more emphasis the Eagles place on the national tourney, or the Hockey East field has been more daunting than we knew over the years.

In years past (at least in recent years), the difference between the top 2 or 3 teams was always small, the reg season title often not decided until the last weekend, so in those years BC not winning was not that much of a surprise. This year the reg season title was clinched many weeks ago, and the lead was so large, that if BC does not win HE this year it would put that stat in a whole different perspective.

In B-Bal, the favorite team in the ACC/Big East tourney etc, often gets upset in the league tournament, and then goes on to do well at Nationals. Fairly common in that sport.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Doesn't seem so random... ECAC has been the tougher conference at the top, Harvard has done relatively well against the best teams compared to middle-of-the pack teams (kind of the opposite of the trend of recent seasons), and Harvard was ahead of BC for a while until these bad results vs. Yale.
I'm not even referring to their RPI -- BC should stay ahead in RPI if they both win their conference -- but Harvard will flip with BC because they will have the CoOpp and TUC comparison points.

The fact that BC has more NCAA quarterfinal wins / Frozen Fours (4) than Hockey East semifinal wins / final appearances (3) is one of the more remarkable stats of women's college hockey.
Well, I mean, honestly, that's what happens when you play in the premier women's college hockey conference. You know what they say: "We can't all play cupcakes like St. Cloud every week."*

*"We Can't All Play Cupcakes Like St. Cloud Every Week" is going to be the thread title should BC match up with a WCHA team in the Frozen Four
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Agree with Arm. BU has really fallen of the map in the second half. This is partly due to injuries to key personel. The game I watched vs BC, they looked vulnerable on D, and that is not a good recipe for play-off success.

I think the answer is a lot more prosaic than that and ARM hinted at it. Through January 4th, BU was 7-0 in one goal games (taking out empty net goals). That's a classic sign of a team that's not as good as its record; despite what a lot of people think, winning close games is not a repeatable skill and a team's record in them is always going to regress back towards .500 from pretty much wherever it is. If they had gone a more likely 4-3 in those games they'd have had a record of 12-6 at that point. Combine that with not having played the best team in Hockey East at all up to then and most of the "What happened to BU?" questions disappear. What happened to them is that the results started to more accurately reflect a level of play that had been there all along.
 
You know what they say: "We can't all play cupcakes like St. Cloud every week."
A lot of athletes refer to themselves in the third person. TTT refers to himself in third person plural. He is correct about St. Cloud State, however. It's offense struggled so mightily that it would have had a hard time finishing higher than second in Hockey East.
 
QU is a typo right?

By the way, random but if Harvard wins the ECAC they will jump BC

Sorry. Should mean MC.

And, as near as I can tell, Harvard would not jump UW then, unless UW lost to UND. So, if Harvard wins ECAC and BC wins HEA, then it goes:
1-Minn; 2-Wisc,Harv,BC all tied I think because Harv wins the BC compare on TUC and ComOpp, not RPI....
5-Clarkson; 6-Cornell; 7-CHA Champ; 8-CHA runnerup

Then, Pittsburgh and Erie are too far from Boston to bus, so we likely get the CHA schools going west. Ugh.....

As I said above, the best thing is if Cornell hosts, because it leaves more mixing possible.
 
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Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

The latest handbook is here: http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/MANUAL_14NC_WIH_PreChamps.pdf

It changed, so we know for sure it's a .500 RPI cutoff. From page 13 (the numbers on the printed text)



I haven't seen a new handbook for a few years, but they've done a much better job of spelling out the actual practice of the committee than in the past. I think "results vs. common opponents" is still vague though.
As requested by robertearle and others, I've had a question on COP into the chair of the selection committee for a while, and she responded today. Starting this season, COP has been changed to use the same logic as the men's calculation: calculate a percentage for each common opponent separately and then add them up, rather than adding up the records and calculating one winning percentage as was done in the past. Thus, the way USCHO computed COP last year for St. Lawrence compared to North Dakota was correct at the time, but because the committee has the latitude to give more weight to some other component, RPI in that case, UND took the comparison from SLU and was the final at-large team rather than Wisconsin. This season, COP will shake out in what most would consider to be a more equitable fashion, so a team won't be hurt by playing more of its common opponent games against a tougher team.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

A lot of athletes refer to themselves in the third person. TTT refers to himself in third person plural. He is correct about St. Cloud State, however. It's offense struggled so mightily that it would have had a hard time finishing higher than second in Hockey East.

Take a look at KRACH. Hockey East has four teams that badly lag St. Cloud, which of course finished last in the WCHA. And St. Cloud beat Northeastern and held BU to just two goals, back when BU was playing well.

When you compare conferences, even the CHA has two teams that would have finished ahead of BU, Hockey East's second best team. Mercyhurst and Robert Morris' KRACH ratings are both more than 50% better than BU's and are double that of Northeastern's, Hockey East's third best team. :rolleyes:
 
Take a look at KRACH. Hockey East has four teams that badly lag St. Cloud, which of course finished last in the WCHA. And St. Cloud beat Northeastern and held BU to just two goals, back when BU was playing well.

When you compare conferences, even the CHA has two teams that would have finished ahead of BU, Hockey East's second best team. Mercyhurst and Robert Morris' KRACH ratings are both more than 50% better than BU's and are double that of Northeastern's, Hockey East's third best team. :rolleyes:
Are you new here?
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Are you new here?

:) No, I know how it works. But seriously, Grant, you must realize that it would be kind of a joke if more than one Hockey East team gets to play in the NCAA's this year.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

As requested by robertearle and others, I've had a question on COP into the chair of the selection committee for a while, and she responded today. Starting this season, COP has been changed to use the same logic as the men's calculation: calculate a percentage for each common opponent separately and then add them up, rather than adding up the records and calculating one winning percentage as was done in the past. Thus, the way USCHO computed COP last year for St. Lawrence compared to North Dakota was correct at the time, but because the committee has the latitude to give more weight to some other component, RPI in that case, UND took the comparison from SLU and was the final at-large team rather than Wisconsin. This season, COP will shake out in what most would consider to be a more equitable fashion, so a team won't be hurt by playing more of its common opponent games against a tougher team.
You are a forum sage, good sir.

I did some back-of-the-envelope math (actually 'back of the men's softball signup sheet that I had' math, but yeah) and BC can't win the Common Opponent comparison against Harvard now. Fortunately they will necessarily keep the TUC comparison as long as Harvard loses a game.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

I just want to see the best eight teams in the tournament, and the only HE team that qualifies is BC, thanks largely to all the cupcakes they got to play in league play.
We've gone over this a thousand times but if Minnesota or Wisconsin had to go through the brutal Hockey East schedule, week after week, in a schedule where anyone can beat anyone due to the high-end talent up and down the conference, they would be so worn out by the end of the year that they would come up short every time come tournament time. It's just science and math.
 
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