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2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

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Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Yeah. The early turnout seems like a big deal to me. CO is looking decent for Romney, but early voters may be coming from the hinter lands. For Obama, NC has to seem better than expected as his numbers include about 20% of its population. Due to such a high percentage of its vote already in, NV has almost got to be off the battleground states list by now.

CO has just under 20% of its vote in.
FL just over 10%
IA about 15%
NV almost 25%
NC 20%
OH just over 10%
 
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

5mn_Major said:
Yeah. The early turnout seems like a big deal to me. CO is looking decent for Romney, but early voters may be coming from the hinter lands. For Obama, NC has to seem better than expected as his numbers include about 20% of its population. Due to such a high percentage of its vote already in, NV has almost got to be off the battleground states list by now.

CO has just under 20% of its vote in.
FL just over 10%
IA about 15%
NV almost 25%
NC 20%
OH just over 10%
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Are those percentages of total registered voters? Interesting stuff. Early voting certainly does seem to be an important consideration, and growing bigger each election.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Bob Gray said:
Oh, and there's a constant stream of green energy sales calls, telling me there is a lot of federal money available and they'll help me tap into it. Maybe Obama gave the green energy companies an exemption from the no call list?
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I'm pretty sure that order came from the President's desk.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Bob Gray said:
Are those percentages of total registered voters? Interesting stuff. Early voting certainly does seem to be an important consideration, and growing bigger each election.
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Good call. No those are my back of the napkin calcs based on total state population. Voter turnout was an averag of 63% or about 2/3 of total US pop.

That makes my listed early voter percentages much higher...50% higher. So for example, NC early voters were 1.9 million, the total state population is 9.6 million and if we assume that their turnout is similar to US averages, that means that 1.9 million have voted out of a likely total of 6.4 million

...or to be better said, wow.
 
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

5mn_Major said:
So for example, NC early voters were 1.9 million, the total state population is 9.6 million and if we assume that their turnout is similar to US averages, that means that 1.9 million have voted out of a likely total of 6.4 million

...or to be better said, wow.
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Whoa...you are really over-estimating turnout, I think. North Carolina only has about 7 million eligible voters (ballpark figure, based on the number of 6.85 million in 2008). Perhaps you are taking total population when you should be taking population 18 years old and over?

North Carolina's turnout in 2008 was just over 4.3 million (68 percent of eligible voters); I don't think there is any real reason to assume turnout will be that much higher this time around.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

goldy_331 said:
When did you become a millionaire? :confused:
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20% across the board. That's what he said and I'm holding him to it. And since my only real deductions have zero chance of being altered I'm getting 20% clean and free.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

While I like early voting and do so myself, there's a little part of me that's nostalgic for the day when everyone went out and voted on the same day and you knew that all the votes were up for grabs to the very last day. The main reason I went to early voting is that the lines had gotten so long (2 hours plus) the previous couple times I voted in person, and I'd rather not stand in line that long. I wonder if down the road most people start voting early/by mail, and therefore they gradually offer less and less locations where you can vote in person, if there will be concerns with lack of access for people who vote in person and there isn't a polling place as close to their residence as there used to be?
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Alton said:
Whoa...you are really over-estimating turnout, I think. North Carolina only has about 7 million eligible voters (ballpark figure, based on the number of 6.85 million in 2008). Perhaps you are taking total population when you should be taking population 18 years old and over?

North Carolina's turnout in 2008 was just over 4.3 million (68 percent of eligible voters); I don't think there is any real reason to assume turnout will be that much higher this time around.
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Puttin me to work here today!

So...I have NC's 2011 total pop at 9.7 (from the US census...this is a better number to start with as I don't see 30% of NC being non citizens). Then 76% are over 18 or about 7.2 million. And sticking to your 68% turnout...from where I sit the number should be closer to 5 million. So could these numbers be true? That means that almost 40% of NC has already voted and closer to half of NV.

I guess wow still holds.
 
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

polling usually stops Saturday. by then the candidates and often the press know who has won. watch the candidates for body language. and what states they are in. remember the very sweaty Al Gore in Tennessee?
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Regarding early voting, there's a lot of spinning going around, but here's my take.

First, total early voting %'s are irrelavent. It doesn't matter how California or Texas are turning out before election day.

Next, comparisons to 2008 are useful but also limited. I would certainly expect Romney to have a better showing than McCain. However, a big point of interest for me is if Obama can exceed his #'s in key states over last time. In some places, merely reaching the same levels as before won't be enough (North Carolina for example).

Finally, a lot of this depends on the particular state. So take Florida. If Obama is losing the early vote he's not going to win the state. If he's up 5% after a third of the voters have cast ballots before election day I won't be doing backflips as the large portion of elderly GOP leaning voters in the state can easily make up that difference on Nov 6th. However, if he starts leading by high single digits that's a different story.

On the other hand, if Obama went into VA or IA with a 5% lead in a state without a large contingent of geezers I'd feel a lot more confident about the eventual outcome.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

5mn_Major said:
Puttin me to work here today!

So...I have NC's 2011 total pop at 9.7 (from the US census...this is a better number to start with as I don't see 30% of NC being non citizens). Then 76% are over 18 or about 7.2 million. And sticking to your 68% turnout...from where I sit the number should be closer to 5 million. So could these numbers be true? That means that almost 40% of NC has already voted and closer to half of NV.

I guess wow still holds.
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Way too much information, but...

I think the missing step is the 6 percent of North Carolina's population that are not US citizens.

http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2010G.html

That site puts NC's voting eligible population at 6.8 million. The vote in 2008 was 4.31 million (2.14 million Obama, 2.13 million McCain, 0.04 million others).
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Wow. Why would a Red State have so many illegals living there? They should give Jan a call in Arizona and get that cleaned up.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Rover said:
Regarding early voting, there's a lot of spinning going around, but here's my take.

First, total early voting %'s are irrelavent. It doesn't matter how California or Texas are turning out before election day.

Next, comparisons to 2008 are useful but also limited. I would certainly expect Romney to have a better showing than McCain. However, a big point of interest for me is if Obama can exceed his #'s in key states over last time. In some places, merely reaching the same levels as before won't be enough (North Carolina for example).

Finally, a lot of this depends on the particular state. So take Florida. If Obama is losing the early vote he's not going to win the state. If he's up 5% after a third of the voters have cast ballots before election day I won't be doing backflips as the large portion of elderly GOP leaning voters in the state can easily make up that difference on Nov 6th. However, if he starts leading by high single digits that's a different story.

On the other hand, if Obama went into VA or IA with a 5% lead in a state without a large contingent of geezers I'd feel a lot more confident about the eventual outcome.
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Interesting thoughts. We generally don't know until afterwards though as far as how early voting is breaking toward one candidate or the other? Don't they count the early ballots along the same rough timeframe as the ballots that come in on election day? If so, I don't expect there's any way to know specifically how early ballots are going.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Can't say I expected this. The Economist endorses Obama?!?

The Economist: "As a result, this election offers American voters an unedifying choice. Many of The Economist's readers, especially those who run businesses in America, may well conclude that nothing could be worse than another four years of Mr Obama. We beg to differ. For all his businesslike intentions, Mr Romney has an economic plan that works only if you don't believe most of what he says. That is not a convincing pitch for a chief executive. And for all his shortcomings, Mr Obama has dragged America's economy back from the brink of disaster, and has made a decent fist of foreign policy. So this newspaper would stick with the devil it knows, and re-elect him."

Looks like they just convinced me to renew my subscription! ;)
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

ScoobyDoo said:
Wow. Why would a Red State have so many illegals living there? They should give Jan a call in Arizona and get that cleaned up.
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6 percent is no big deal. The rough estimates for Arizona have been 10 percent, though that may have dropped a little lately.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

I think we may be reasonably confident that the vast majority of people (in North Carolina, or otherwise) who are not citizens but who answer the census are not illegal.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

interesting take from MoveOn:

We're still making final decisions about how many voters we can afford to reach out to using the new voter turnout method we pioneered! More money = more votes.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election 5: Election Day Countdown

Alton said:
I think we may be reasonably confident that the vast majority of people (in North Carolina, or otherwise) who are not citizens but who answer the census are not illegal.
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Ahhh, ok. If that changes I have Jan on speed dial.
 
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