2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

[Numbers]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Here's one that puts Lowell home... really difficult to pull off... unsure about sensitivity.

WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Denver.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Championship game: Providence defeats Maine.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Cornell.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
ECAC Championship game: Harvard defeats Union.
ECAC Consolation game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Bowling Green defeats Michigan.
CCHA Championship game: Bowling Green defeats Miami.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Western Michigan.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Niagara.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT.

#13 PWR... 4 AQ off-list (PC, BGSU, Harvard, Air Force)

edit: so far... WCHA can be flipped a bit and keep the result... flipping RIT for AFA puts UML back in... ECAC seems to be a no-touch zone... HEA needs to go in the order above. CCHA might be flippable... didn't test... BGSU is essential element though if WMU jumps at UML's expense I suppose it could be similar

There may be one or two other scenarios out there... hard to run them all down... but off of this base scenario there aren't a lot of additional cases.

edit: I can get Lowell out with WMU winning a few games. So far, it looks like AHA, HEA, and ECAC have to go exactly to plan (above)... the rest has some wiggle... but not a lot.

Thanks, Patman. I noticed from this base as well, that WMU over Michigan in the CCHA final, and Miami over BG in the conso also leaves Lowell out. So, add them to Priceless' "parlay" list.

 

[Patman]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Thanks, Patman. I noticed from this base as well, that WMU over Michigan in the CCHA final, and Miami over BG in the conso also leaves Lowell out. So, add them to Priceless' "parlay" list.

yeah... as far as I can figure ECAC and HEA has to go exactly as so... not sure that I'll play around with this much more... day job as a professional statistician and all that... DST isnt letting me sleep though. I figure if BC defeats PC then Lowell may as well be a lock.

 

[bottomdweller]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

yeah... as far as I can figure ECAC and HEA has to go exactly as so... not sure that I'll play around with this much more... day job as a professional statistician and all that... DST isnt letting me sleep though. I figure if BC defeats PC then Lowell may as well be a lock.

Ok, so now that Lowell is in, do me a favor and put then in Bridgeport or Worcester.

 

[Numbers]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

My favorite scenario is a slight modification of the one posted that gets Merrimack in:

WCHA - Minn over UMD
AHA - AFA over RIT
ECAC - Cornell loses twice, Union wins twice
CCHA - Michigan beats Miami, and BG beats WMU in the conso
HE - BC over BU in the final

This gives 2 interesting results.
1- A #1 from each conference
2- The #15 team (last at large bid) would be a tie between Merr and WMU. That's cool enough. However, this particular tie has the following quality: If the tie is broken by RPI, it goes to Merrimack. If the tie is broken by the comparison winner, it goes to WMU.

Wouldn't you love to be on that committee??

 

[Patman]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Wouldn't you love to be on that committee??

Clearly, this calls for a play-in game somewhere in the middle... like Indianapolis... who's up for it!

 

[Patman]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Ok, so now that Lowell is in, do me a favor and put then in Bridgeport or Worcester.

I don't perform miracles... many scenarios I've seen put us opposite Goldy.

 

[brassbonanza]

My favorite scenario is a slight modification of the one posted that gets Merrimack in:

WCHA - Minn over UMD
AHA - AFA over RIT
ECAC - Cornell loses twice, Union wins twice
CCHA - Michigan beats Miami, and BG beats WMU in the conso
HE - BC over BU in the final

This gives 2 interesting results.
1- A #1 from each conference
2- The #15 team (last at large bid) would be a tie between Merr and WMU. That's cool enough. However, this particular tie has the following quality: If the tie is broken by RPI, it goes to Merrimack. If the tie is broken by the comparison winner, it goes to WMU.

Wouldn't you love to be on that committee??

Is it a rule that rpi breaks ties or is it just assumed that's how the committee does it?

 

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I'm definitely not a pro at this by any means, but I can get Union as a #1 seed fairly easily.

If all of the higher seeds win and Colgate beats or ties Harvard, Union College is a #1 seed. Wow.

I can't seem to get us lower than #12...Is that right?

 

[bottomdweller]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

In terms of tiebreakers, they don't factor in one team winning the comparison over the team they're tied with, right? They go off of RPI? I have UML and Minnesota tied at 8th, but the Gophers have a higher RPI.

 

[Biddco]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

And from the looks of it, if North Dakota wins the WCHA and the rest of the top seeds win in the other conferences, the Sioux will be a #1 seed.

WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Western Michigan defeats Miami.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Western Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Bowling Green.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Niagara defeats RIT.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats Niagara.

Which results in...

1. BC
2. Michigan
3. North Dakota
3. Minnesota Duluth
3. BU
6. Union
6. Ferris State
8. Miami
9. Lowell
10. Minnesota
10. Maine
10. Cornell
13. Denver
14. Michigan State
14. Western Michigan
23. Air Force

A scenario most fans of the WCHA can cheer against! I hope UND loses to St. Cloud!

Although if they lost to UMTC that would be okay as well...I have never been to a UND-UMTC game would love to see one before the end of the WCHA as we know it.

 

[bronconick]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

In terms of tiebreakers, they don't factor in one team winning the comparison over the team they're tied with, right? They go off of RPI? I have UML and Minnesota tied at 8th, but the Gophers have a higher RPI.

We're not sure, from what I understand.

 

[Numbers]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

We're not sure, from what I understand.

This was my thought, and the reason I threw this scenario up as soon as I found it. I am not sure there is a "defined", book way to break that tie. The committee gets some flack for the way they do the brackets sometimes, but the one refuge they have is that the field is always defined ahead of time for them by what Scooby calls, "Simple Math." This scenario is perhaps their worst headache, because it's not so simple now...

 

[Numbers]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I'm definitely not a pro at this by any means, but I can get Union as a #1 seed fairly easily.

If all of the higher seeds win and Colgate beats or ties Harvard, Union College is a #1 seed. Wow.

I can't seem to get us lower than #12...Is that right?

Here is your worst case scenario: Union ends up 14t, and out of the field. There may some changes to CCHA that bring the same, I will discuss them below:

WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
WCHA Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats Denver.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Championship game: Providence defeats Boston University.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Cornell.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Colgate defeats Union.
ECAC Championship game: Harvard defeats Colgate.
ECAC Consolation game: Cornell defeats Union.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Western Michigan defeats Miami.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
CCHA Championship game: Western Michigan defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Bowling Green.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Niagara defeats RIT.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats Niagara.

You can play with it, I think that making BG champ of CCHA instead of Western will accomplish the same thing. And, since Union falls so low in this scenario (which I think is because of Providence coming up), you could perhaps also choose MTU to run the table in WCHA, and have Union out of the field, even though they would have one more PWC win.

Edit : I was wrong about the WCHA part of that. It has to go as I listed it in the beginning. And, you can put BG into the CCHA Champion spot, and it gets even worse for Union. They come out 13th, but with 5 AQs below them. And, putting BG as CCHA Champ also means that Providence doesn't even need to win one game. Union would still be #13, but now there are 4 AQS below them, and so they are out.

If you try it, note that BG still does not show up on the TUC list. But, they would be in the field.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I'm at work so can someone verify for me that if UMD and BC win their conferences, BC is #2?

 

[Numbers]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I'm at work so can someone verify for me that if UMD and BC win their conferences, BC is #2?

Gladly. Yes. That is the only way BC falls from #1 overall that I have found, although I have not been trying to find it, either. The reason in that case is that UMD nips BC in both TUCs (by.0019) and in CommOpp

Since you seem to be a BC fan, I would like a disclaimer. In the event this happens, there are many scenarios in which it won't matter which of the 2 is #1, or #2, because the other two #1 seeds will be CCHA, and there might well be 2 CCHA teams in the #4 band. Since those schools can't play each other, both UMD and BC would have to face the CCHA teams in round one.

 

[JimDahl]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I meant to finish this last night but ran into some glitches and opted for sleep. Here's my first pass at the possibilities. I'll do more work on the details, but am throwing the first pass up for a sanity check from the crowd. Anyone find anything outside these ranges (assuming an RPI tie breaker)?

BC 1-3
Michigan 1-6
Miami 1-14
Duluth 1-11
Ferris St 3-10
BU 2-13
Minnesota 2-13
Maine 3-14
UND 2-14
Mass.-Lowell 6-14
Mich. St. 13-18
Western Mich. 7-18
Denver 3-14
N. Michigan 13-17
Union 2-15
Merrimack 14-20
St. Cloud 13-26
Cornell 4-18
Harvard 15-28

 

[BUPhD]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I love this time of year when the predictor comes out. Good bye free time!

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Here's our chance to see if DU is in. I wouldn't count your NCAA egg before its hatched.

 

[dggoddard]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Here's our chance to see if DU is in. I wouldn't count your NCAA egg before its hatched.

Don't worry about us. I have DU as a #1 seed after the NCHC teams roll next weekend.

Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Niagara
Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst
Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT

CCHA
Semifinal #2: Western Michigan-NCHC defeats Miami-NCHC
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green
Championship game: Western Michigan-NCHC defeats Michigan
Consolation game: Miami defeats Bowling Green

ECAC
Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Harvard
Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate
Championship game: Cornell defeats Union
Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate

Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine
Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence
Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University

WCHA
Play-in #2: Denver-NCHC defeats Michigan Tech
Play-in #1: North Dakota-NCHC defeats St. Cloud State-NCHC
Semifinal #2: Denver-NCHC defeats Minnesota-Duluth-NCHC
Semifinal #1: North Dakota-NCHC defeats Minnesota
Championship game: Denver-NCHC defeats North Dakota-NCHC


Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/#ixzz1ounRizIt

 

[aparch]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Flip the WMU/Miami result to Miami (still having a MAC school win the CCHA), and the third place game of WMU/BGSU into BGSU's favor, and this scenario works for me.