2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

[MagnessMan]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

i'm obviously looking at it from a maine viewpoint, but in my first pass on the predictor, i was able to get them up to a #1 seed (fourth overall)

Wishful thinking. You've got some crazy *** picks in HE and ECAC. BBears playing the Friars in the Championship? BC the hottest team in the country tanking vs PC? Colgate beating Union?

 

[MagnessMan]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I can get Lowell out but it requires BGSU, PC, Harvard, and North Dakota all winning out.

Sounds like the Riverhawks are a lock. Hope the extra rest helps.

 

[LTsatch]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

No

And from the looks of it, if North Dakota wins the WCHA and the rest of the top seeds win in the other conferences, the Sioux will be a #1 seed.

WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Western Michigan defeats Miami.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Western Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Bowling Green.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Niagara defeats RIT.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats Niagara.

Which results in...

1. BC
2. Michigan
3. North Dakota
3. Minnesota Duluth
3. BU
6. Union
6. Ferris State
8. Miami
9. Lowell
10. Minnesota
10. Maine
10. Cornell
13. Denver
14. Michigan State
14. Western Michigan
23. Air Force

 

[gscott13]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Wishful thinking. You've got some crazy *** picks in HE and ECAC. BBears playing the Friars in the Championship? BC the hottest team in the country tanking vs PC? Colgate beating Union?

didn't say it was going to happen, but given priceless is a maine fan and he's calculated what it would take for maine to be on the outside looking in, i was looking to see how high i could get them.... clearly some of those picks are out there...

 

[brassbonanza]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Merrimack is NOT out. WMU/Cornell lose twice, Maine over BU, chalk everywhere else and MC is the last team in.

 

[Patman]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Merrimack is NOT out. WMU/Cornell lose twice, Maine over BU, chalk everywhere else and MC is the last team in.

hmm... I've been trying to figure that one out... didn't think to have Cornell drop.

edit: Merrimack AND NMU get in under that situation... or at least the one I have in front of me.

WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence.
Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats Boston College.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Cornell.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Harvard.
ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Cornell.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Bowling Green defeats Western Michigan.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Niagara.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT.

I had Maine at the AQ because it was an attempt to boost Merrimack's RPI.

 

[HoosierBBall_GopherHockey]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Numbers, there are still quite a few plausible* scenarios where Minnesota can win the Broadmoor and still finish #5 or lower in the PWR.

* not crazy

 

[Numbers]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I can get Lowell out but it requires BGSU, PC, Harvard, and North Dakota all winning out.

Patman, Can you provide more detail? I can get this to work, and put Lowell out.

 

[brassbonanza]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

hmm... I've been trying to figure that one out... didn't think to have Cornell drop.

edit: Merrimack AND NMU get in under that situation... or at least the one I have in front of me.

WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence.
Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats Boston College.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Cornell.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Harvard.
ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Cornell.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Bowling Green defeats Western Michigan.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Niagara.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT.

I had Maine at the AQ because it was an attempt to boost Merrimack's RPI.

MC fans should be rooting hard for Union, they HAVE to win two, and Cornell/WMU need to lose two. Other than that Maine-BC title game winner is irrelevant, WCHA/CCHA winners are not relevant so long as its one of the top seeds.

 

[Numbers]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Numbers, there are still quite a few plausible* scenarios where Minnesota can win the Broadmoor and still finish #5 or lower in the PWR.

* not crazy

I'm looking at one right now. See if this matches your results. BU over BC in HE, Miami over Mich in CCHA. That preserves all 4 of those teams above Minnesota. I'll try it with Maine in place of BU also.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

By my count there are still 11 teams alive for a #1 seed going into next weekend. Crazy.

The bubble is: Cornell, Michigan State, Western Michigan, Northern Michigan and Merrimack.
Teams that are in: BC, Michigan, UMD, Ferris State, Boston University, Minnesota, Miami
Teams that are in barring the parlay: Lowell, Maine, Denver, Union, North Dakota
Cornell needs one more TUC win to move off the bubble. 0-2 vs TUC sinks them.

 

[vizoroo]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Denver, Union and Maine can be eliminated but it would take tremendous upsets to do it, including SCSU or Tech running the table in the WCHA, Colgate or Harvard winning the ECAC, Providence winning HEA and Bowling Green winning the CCHA.

For brevity's sake, can we agree to just call it "the parlay"?

"The parlay" isn't going to happen. Been enjoying the Bracketology thread (as long as DU is in the mix.)

How are you doung Priceless?

 

[Numbers]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

By my count there are still 11 teams alive for a #1 seed going into next weekend. Crazy.

The bubble is: Cornell, Michigan State, Western Michigan, Northern Michigan and Merrimack.
Teams that are in: BC, Michigan, UMD, Ferris State, Boston University, Minnesota, Miami
Teams that are in barring the parlay: Maine, Denver, Union, North Dakota
Cornell needs one more TUC win to move off the bubble. 0-2 vs TUC sinks them.

Priceless, I get the same, except that my 'parlay' also includes Western in place of BG. And, I am still awaiting Patman's scenario that puts Lowell out. I can't match the result he posted.

Oh, and I thought I found a way to put Maine out without the PC part of the parlay in effect. Yes. Here it is:
WCHA: SCSU over Denver in the final
HE: BC over BU
CCHA: Western over Michigan in the final.
ECAC: Colgate over Cornell (Union wins conso)
AHA: Air Force

 

[Patman]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless, I get the same, except that my 'parlay' also includes Western in place of BG. And, I am still awaiting Patman's scenario that puts Lowell out. I can't match the result he posted.

Oh, and I thought I found a way to put Maine out without the PC part of the parlay in effect. Let me try that again...

I didn't know I had to

edit: heh, in trying to re-create the situation I found one that puts Lowell 6th in the pairwise... as high as I've been able to manage.

edit #2: I know I had one... the lowest I can get them at the moment is 12th (with the AQ line right at 12)

 

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Looks like the only scenario in which BC will not be the #1 overall is if tUMD wins the Final Five. If tUMD wins the Final Five they will be the #1 overall.

One of you who knows the PWR better can now go prove me wrong...

 

[The Rube]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Looks like the only scenario in which BC will not be the #1 overall is if tUMD wins the Final Five. If tUMD wins the Final Five they will be the #1 overall.

One of you who knows the PWR better can now go prove me wrong...

Easy. MN will win the F5. My work is done here.

 

[Numbers]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Looks like the only scenario in which BC will not be the #1 overall is if tUMD wins the Final Five. If tUMD wins the Final Five they will be the #1 overall.

One of you who knows the PWR better can now go prove me wrong...

I believe this is right. No one can pass their RPI, because HE has no conso game. And, only UMD can reach them in the other parts of the PWR.

 

[The Rube]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I believe this is right. No one can pass their RPI, because HE has no conso game. And, only UMD can reach them in the other parts of the PWR.

WCHA has no conso game either, thank Parise. Dunno if that makes a difference.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless, I get the same, except that my 'parlay' also includes Western in place of BG. And, I am still awaiting Patman's scenario that puts Lowell out. I can't match the result he posted.

Oh, and I thought I found a way to put Maine out without the PC part of the parlay in effect. Yes. Here it is:
WCHA: SCSU over Denver in the final
HE: BC over BU
CCHA: Western over Michigan in the final.
ECAC: Colgate over Cornell (Union wins conso)
AHA: Air Force

See below.

"The parlay" isn't going to happen. Been enjoying the Bracketology thread (as long as DU is in the mix.)

How are you doung Priceless?

Check your rep

 

[Patman]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Here's one that puts Lowell home... really difficult to pull off... unsure about sensitivity.

WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Denver.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Championship game: Providence defeats Maine.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Cornell.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
ECAC Championship game: Harvard defeats Union.
ECAC Consolation game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Bowling Green defeats Michigan.
CCHA Championship game: Bowling Green defeats Miami.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Western Michigan.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Niagara.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT.

#13 PWR... 4 AQ off-list (PC, BGSU, Harvard, Air Force)

edit: so far... WCHA can be flipped a bit and keep the result... flipping RIT for AFA puts UML back in... ECAC seems to be a no-touch zone... HEA needs to go in the order above. CCHA might be flippable... didn't test... BGSU is essential element though if WMU jumps at UML's expense I suppose it could be similar

There may be one or two other scenarios out there... hard to run them all down... but off of this base scenario there aren't a lot of additional cases.

edit: I can get Lowell out with WMU winning a few games. So far, it looks like AHA, HEA, and ECAC have to go exactly to plan (above)... the rest has some wiggle... but not a lot.