2012 Mariucci Classic

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Luckily for BC, when Milner regresses to his mean save %, we can expect Billett to rise up and take control of the starting job given Billett's average save % of .928 over the past 3 seasons, including .933 and .943 in the EJHL.

I'm glad we cleared this up.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Luckily for BC, when Milner regresses to his mean save %, we can expect Billett to rise up and take control of the starting job given Billett's average save % of .928 over the past 3 seasons, including .933 and .943 in the EJHL.

I'm glad we cleared this up.

Don't know. But unless the gophs are in some bizarre slump ...I'd expect them to be on fire for this visit. UND experienced it in the NCAAs last winter.

 

[cross cheque]

Possibly, we do know that the peach schnapps will be flowing though.

It's the secret ingredient to his men's bathroom glory hole.

 

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Possibly, we do know that the peach schnapps will be flowing though.

Fuzzy Naval's all around at Aqua that night...

 

[Tipsy McStagger]

BC will be a weak team this year, and it isn't unreasonable to fear that they will be upset by UAH. The Gophers, on the other hand, will be the class of college hockey.

Nope, not trolling at all.

 

[Numbers]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

If that is true, you should be upset with the dear home team for looking out for someone else's interests instead of their own. Personally, I believe they were looking out for their own interests. The PWR swing between a win vs. UAH and a loss vs. BC would be negligible. The upside to be gained when comparing the PWR swing between a loss vs. UAH and an improbable win vs. BC could not be ignored. Nor could it be passed up.

Uncle Ray,

I don't mean to preach here. But, your PWR analysis is a little lacking. I am thinking about ""The PWR swing between a win vs. UAH and a loss vs. BC would be negligible.""

I disagree. The PWR result of a win against UAH is likely to be as if there were no game played (games in which you win, but your RPI goes down are discounted). The PWR result of a loss to BC is bad on a number of counts.

1) Probably won't affect RPI much - you are right on this one
2) Will affect the Common Opponents factor by a large margin. We don't have many games against HE opponents. So, lost to BC, it makes it hard to win this part of the compare with BU, Maine, etc.
3) Will affect the TUC record downward as well. Given that the Gophers play lots of TUC games, this doesn't seem like much, but in the end of the season, the margins are slim enough that we are always calculating who might fall off the TUC bubble, because that little bit can change the outcome of compares.

Sorry for the diversion. Now, back to regularly scheduled programming.

 

[UncleRay]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Numbers, I do not claim to be a PWR expert. My point is that playing UAH provides few PWR benefits, and, while there is a downside risk to losing to BC, it is far outweighed by the upside to beating BC.

 

[Goon]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Here you go Scooby, some facts for you. Milner's career numbers.

2008-09 (Waterloo/USHL): 31 games/2.90 GAA/0.902 SV%
2009-10 (Boston College): 14 games/2.32 GAA/0.909 SV%
2010-11 (Boston College): 8 games/2.68 GAA/0.899 SV%
2011-12 (Boston College): 34 games/1.66 GAA/0.937 SV%

Now, do I think Milner will play as poorly as he did in limited action in 2010-11 next season? Probably not. But I don't think he will play at the incredibly high level he played at last season either. I believe he will regress back to somewhere in between.

Milner's Career Mean: 87 games/2.3 GAA/0.916 SV%

To be fair, the Gophers could see a regression in net as well. However, the regression should be much smaller and they should have (emphasis added to note opinion vs fact) a better defense playing in front of them.

Let me support this with Facts. The Gophers got the following from Patterson last season:

2011-12 (Golden Gophers): 43 games/2.32 GAA/0.907 SV%

Adam Wilcox (whom I think will eventually earn starter spot) has the following for career means:

Adam Wilcox Career Mean: 67 games/2.5 GAA/0.918 SV%

So, if Milner regresses to his mean for BC, he should have closer to a 2.3 GAA than a 1.66 and a 0.916 SV% instead of a 0.937. That's a 0.64 drop in GAA and a 0.21 drop in SV%.

And if Adam Wilcox plays at his career mean, the Gophers should get something closer to a 2.5 GAA instead of a 2.32 and a 0.918 SV% instead of a 0.907 (Wilcox's mean career SV% is actually higher than Patterson's SV% last season). This translates into a 0.18 drop in GAA and a +0.011 rise in SV%.

[Link to the stats]

 

[wasmania]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Numbers, I do not claim to be a PWR expert. My point is that playing UAH provides few PWR benefits, and, while there is a downside risk to losing to BC, it is far outweighed by the upside to beating BC.

BC doesnt get any pwr boost for having been the strongest program recently. In order for their to be upside to beating bc that far outweighs the downside of losing to them, BC would have to have a much better RPI, common opponents record etc. at the time the pwr is calculated at the end of the season. Don't see how that can be forecast today.

 

[FiveHole12]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

BC doesnt get any pwr boost for having been the strongest program recently. In order for their to be upside to beating bc that far outweighs the downside of losing to them, BC would have to have a much better RPI, common opponents record etc. at the time the pwr is calculated at the end of the season. Don't see how that can be forecast today.

Exactly. But, given how Dubby figures BC to be this year, if Minny happens to drop one to the bums from Boston, the Gophers will probably be golfing in early March also.

 

[UncleRay]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

BC doesnt get any pwr boost for having been the strongest program recently. In order for their to be upside to beating bc that far outweighs the downside of losing to them, BC would have to have a much better RPI, common opponents record etc. at the time the pwr is calculated at the end of the season. Don't see how that can be forecast today.

Sorry, I didn't mean to be stating fact. Let's try this again, couching everything in my own opinion.

History has shown us that beating UAH doesn't provide much of a PWR boost, and, IN MY OPINION, that will be the same this coming year. History has also shown us that beating BC provides a rather healthy PWR boost, and, IN MY OPINION, that will not change this year. Therefore, it is MY OPINION that Minne scheduled BC in their tourney instead of risking a game against UAH, to take advantage of the potential for the PWR boost they would get in beating BC. But, that is just MY OPINION.

 

[Koho]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Sorry, I didn't mean to be stating fact. Let's try this again, couching everything in my own opinion.

History has shown us that beating UAH doesn't provide much of a PWR boost, and, IN MY OPINION, that will be the same this coming year. History has also shown us that beating BC provides a rather healthy PWR boost, and, IN MY OPINION, that will not change this year. Therefore, it is MY OPINION that Minne scheduled BC in their tourney instead of risking a game against UAH, to take advantage of the potential for the PWR boost they would get in beating BC. But, that is just MY OPINION.

Yeah, but in MY OPINION, ticket sales might also play a small part in who they decide to schedule too. I know schools don't care much about how much money they bring in, but it just looks cooler on TV to have a full arena. PWR is probably 99% of the reason teams are scheduled though. And as DUBBS will tell you, it has nothing to do with other teams schedules and if they can fit in a match, since everyone else in the country waits to see who MN invites to play them before they start to work on their own schedules.

 

[Gurtholfin]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Yeah, but in MY OPINION, ticket sales might also play a small part in who they decide to schedule too. I know schools don't care much about how much money they bring in, but it just looks cooler on TV to have a full arena. PWR is probably 99% of the reason teams are scheduled though. And as DUBBS will tell you, it has nothing to do with other teams schedules and if they can fit in a match, since everyone else in the country waits to see who MN invites to play them before they start to work on their own schedules.

Think that will ever happen for you guys again? It would look cool.