2012 Mariucci Classic

[JDUBBS1280]

Too bad you're the only one that feels that way. FS23 actually contributes to the forum. You just argue meaningless points to death until even Gopher fans hate you.

Which "meaningless point" have I recently "argued to death"?

And I would contend that it takes two to argue, and usually I am defending my points, not ridiculing other's points.

So, help me understand. Let's use my preseason rankings thread as an example. I have been ruthlessly attacked in that thread, but few have actually attacked my actual rankings (with the exception of BC being absent, which is an opinion I have supported with my reasoning).

What "meaningless points" did i make in that thread, and who have been the antagonizers in that thread?

 

[gopher wes]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Which "meaningless point" have I recently "argued to death"?

And I would contend that it takes two to argue, and usually I am defending my points, not ridiculing other's points.

So, help me understand. Let's use my preseason rankings thread as an example. I have been ruthlessly attacked in that thread, but few have actually attacked my actual rankings (with the exception of BC being absent, which is an opinion I have supported with my reasoning).

What "meaningless points" did i make in that thread, and who have been the antagonizers in that thread?

The first one that comes to mind is your view of Minnesota Hockey that you spew in pretty much every UW/UM and UND/UM thread(among others).

That point is valid but it also has a lot to do with that fact that other posters here realize how easy it is to get you going.

Haven't read that thread, don't care. I only have been here during the summer months to read the Gopher Off-season thread. That's it.

 

[Tiggsy]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Which "meaningless point" have I recently "argued to death"?

And I would contend that it takes two to argue, and usually I am defending my points, not ridiculing other's points.

Hate to point this out, but Dubbs is correct here. I won't comment on how valid the points are since each person gets to decide that on their own.

 

[JDUBBS1280]

The first one that comes to mind is your view of Minnesota Hockey that you spew in pretty much every UW/UM and UND/UM thread(among others).

That point is valid but it also has a lot to do with that fact that other posters here realize how easy it is to get you going.

Haven't read that thread, don't care. I only have been here during the summer months to read the Gopher Off-season thread. That's it.

I haven't argued that Minnesota hockey is superior to all others in this country for months. Not about to rehash those arguments here, but I would contend that it is others (not me) who are unable to let arguments go and continue to bash me because of resentments originating from old disputes.

This next thought isn't directed towards you, or anyone else specifically for that matter, but I think it is really sad how apologetic some Gopher fans have become at the cost of any pride.

I'm not saying everyone has to be as beat your chest arrogant as I can sometimes be, but I would certainly prefer that to some of the ridiculous placating to other fan bases I see continuously from some.

Maybe the right balance is somewhere in between, but I can no more change how outspoken and prideful I am as others can change how much they need and seek approval from other fanbases.

As long as no one gets personal and attacks others personally, I don't see any problems with just disagreeing with the opinions we disagree with and having healthy discussions.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Hate to point this out, but Dubbs is correct here. I won't comment on how valid the points are since each person gets to decide that on their own.

I disagree. He doesn't make points. He states things as fact and then runs and hides and says they're just his opinion. His recent post on Milner is a fine example. He states that Milner "will" regress to the mean. You don't put "will" in that sentence if it is your opinion, you put it there if its a fact. Then he says he always has facts to back his opinions. Well, which is it? Milner regressing to the mean can't be a fact because the season hasn't occurred yet, yet the way he wrote it's stated as a fact. And he does this over and over and over and over again. It's the same pattern constantly and it's old and tired.

 

[JDUBBS1280]

I disagree. He doesn't make points. He states things as fact and then runs and hides and says they're just his opinion. His recent post on Milner is a fine example. He states that Milner "will" regress to the mean. You don't put "will" in that sentence if it is your opinion, you put it there if its a fact. Then he says he always has facts to back his opinions. Well, which is it? Milner regressing to the mean can't be a fact because the season hasn't occurred yet, yet the way he wrote it's stated as a fact. And he does this over and over and over and over again. It's the same pattern constantly and it's old and tired.

Wow, you are reading far too much into my choice of wording. Of course my thoughts on Milner are opinion, not facts. They were posted in a predictions thread, not in a "this is the way I KNOW things will end up next season" thread. I have even said, numerous times, that time will show if I am right or wrong.

Yes, I think Milner will regress to HIS mean (get that right). All goalies USUALLY do. And if you look at his career stats, he played well above them the second half of last season.

It is my opinion that BC will have more difficulty overcoming its losses than they have had in past seasons, especially defensively. And it is my opinion that there will be a regression in Milner's play. I also think they will see a small drop in offensive play. Not because they have significantly less talent offensively (I think it's a small drop), but mostly because they will have more difficulty moving the puck out of their defensive zone because of their defensive losses.

That's why, in my opinion, BC will be a bubble team this season. And I am going out on a small limb and guessing they miss the tourney.

 

[SanTropez]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

"this is the way I KNOW things will end up next season" thread.

This thread should be created, what fun it could be.

 

[JDUBBS1280]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Here you go Scooby, some facts for you. Milner's career numbers.

2008-09 (Waterloo/USHL): 31 games/2.90 GAA/0.902 SV%
2009-10 (Boston College): 14 games/2.32 GAA/0.909 SV%
2010-11 (Boston College): 8 games/2.68 GAA/0.899 SV%
2011-12 (Boston College): 34 games/1.66 GAA/0.937 SV%

Now, do I think Milner will play as poorly as he did in limited action in 2010-11 next season? Probably not. But I don't think he will play at the incredibly high level he played at last season either. I believe he will regress back to somewhere in between.

Milner's Career Mean: 87 games/2.3 GAA/0.916 SV%

To be fair, the Gophers could see a regression in net as well. However, the regression should be much smaller and they should have (emphasis added to note opinion vs fact) a better defense playing in front of them.

Let me support this with Facts. The Gophers got the following from Patterson last season:

2011-12 (Golden Gophers): 43 games/2.32 GAA/0.907 SV%

Adam Wilcox (whom I think will eventually earn starter spot) has the following for career means:

Adam Wilcox Career Mean: 67 games/2.5 GAA/0.918 SV%

So, if Milner regresses to his mean for BC, he should have closer to a 2.3 GAA than a 1.66 and a 0.916 SV% instead of a 0.937. That's a 0.64 drop in GAA and a 0.21 drop in SV%.

And if Adam Wilcox plays at his career mean, the Gophers should get something closer to a 2.5 GAA instead of a 2.32 and a 0.918 SV% instead of a 0.907 (Wilcox's mean career SV% is actually higher than Patterson's SV% last season). This translates into a 0.18 drop in GAA and a +0.011 rise in SV%.

 

[SCSU Euro]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

These numbers are valid... if the USHL last year had Kristo, the Shores, Hanowski, Zucker, Nelson, the Schwartzs, Broadhurst, Connolly, the Pietilas, White, Brown, Laleggia, Knight, Schultz, Baker, Zengerle, George.... but turns out nope

 

[JDUBBS1280]

These numbers are valid... if the USHL last year had Kristo, the Shores, Hanowski, Zucker, Nelson, the Schwartzs, Broadhurst, Connolly, the Pietilas, White, Brown, Laleggia, Knight, Schultz, Baker, Zengerle, George.... but turns out nope

Meh... I have been told goalie stats translate pretty well from USHL to NCAA. Excuse me if I trust those opinions over yours on this one.

 

[BC/HE]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Milner has developed nicely under Jim Logue who has a propensity for developing elite goaltenders. One trait that Milner has changed immensely is in not giving up nearly as many rebounds thus his GAA improved vastly. JDubbs would be wise to accept those kinds of facts before assuming a drop off in stats. Even a less potent defense does not have to clear the puck if there is no rebound off that first shot. Playing for a National championship in front of his hometown fans in Pittsburgh will be enough motivation too. BC will be in the hunt again this year, make no mistake about that. They will not be a borderline miss for the tournament like in 2009 when major injuries kept BC out even though the were peaking late that year as well. There are a lot of very good players coming back that did not get the headlines but have excellent skills as well. Some of them have been just waiting for their turn to take charge.

 

[JDUBBS1280]

Milner has developed nicely under Jim Logue who has a propensity for developing elite goaltenders. One trait that Milner has changed immensely is in not giving up nearly as many rebounds thus his GAA improved vastly. JDubbs would be wise to accept those kinds of facts before assuming a drop off in stats. Even a less potent defense does not have to clear the puck if there is no rebound off that first shot. Playing for a National championship in front of his hometown fans in Pittsburgh will be enough motivation too. BC will be in the hunt again this year, make no mistake about that. They will not be a borderline miss for the tournament like in 2009 when major injuries kept BC out even though the were peaking late that year as well. There are a lot of very good players coming back that did not get the headlines but have excellent skills as well. Some of them have been just waiting for their turn to take charge.

No doubt Milner is an outstanding goalie. But I'm quite confident his numbers will regress.

 

[Happy]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Right. FS23 leaves and only one person is happy. JDUBBS goes away and everyone is happy.

To be truly Happy, a Gopher fan will only troll other fan bases, not their own.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

These numbers are valid... if the USHL last year had Kristo, the Shores, Hanowski, Zucker, Nelson, the Schwartzs, Broadhurst, Connolly, the Pietilas, White, Brown, Laleggia, Knight, Schultz, Baker, Zengerle, George.... but turns out nope

Exactly.

 

[JDUBBS1280]

Exactly.

Glad you feel that way. If galtending in the USHL is such a breeze, then you should have no objections to including Milner's USHL stats in his career mean stats. I mean, he should have dominated there, right?

Truth is, goaltending in the USHL is not a breeze, and the stats translate well to the NCAA.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Glad you feel that way. If galtending in the USHL is such a breeze, then you should have no objections to including Milner's USHL stats in his career mean stats. I mean, he should have dominated there, right?

Truth is, goaltending in the USHL is not a breeze, and the stats translate well to the NCAA.

So stats translate well from USHL to the NCAA? You obviously know absolutely nothing about the assumptions of correlational procedures in bivariate or multivariate inferential statistics. Looking at the theoretical basis for this whole sham, your analysis has very little, if any, statistical power for variance predictability. I won't bore everyone else with the details, but I'd recommend you give up this precious crusade of yours because your methodology is seriously flawed.

 

[JDUBBS1280]

So stats translate well from USHL to the NCAA? You obviously know absolutely nothing about the assumptions of correlational procedures in bivariate or multivariate inferential statistics. Looking at the theoretical basis for this whole sham, your analysis has very little, if any, statistical power for variance predictability. I won't bore everyone else with the details, but I'd recommend you give up this precious crusade of yours because your methodology is seriously flawed.

Did I say all stats? I don't think I did. We're talking goalie stats. And in particular, I am referring to save percentage.

There isn't typically a big drop off (if any) in save percentage going from one league to another for goaltenders. Yes, it happens, but goalies have also increased their save percentage going into NCAA hockey. Typically, their save percentage is about the same.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Did I say all stats? I don't think I did. We're talking goalie stats. And in particular, I am referring to save percentage.

There isn't typically a big drop off (if any) in save percentage going from one league to another for goaltenders. Yes, it happens, but goalies have also increased their save percentage going into NCAA hockey. Typically, their save percentage is about the same.

I'm referring to GOALIE STATS or any stat correlations between the USHL and the NCAA...it doesn't matter what category. YOUR REASONING IS NOT STATISTICALLY VALID! I'm not going to get into stats discussions with you on this forum and bore everyone to tears. You're obviously entitled to your own opinion, but you're wrong.

 

[JDUBBS1280]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

In terms of expecting there to be a drop of in save percentage upon going from the USHL to the NCAA, as some here are suggesting, I am not wrong.

 

[SCSU Euro]

Re: 2012 Mariucci Classic

Right, cause when a kid scores 25 touchdowns in high school he should expect that in college, and then in the NFL.

When you go up a level, you should expect your numbers to go down because you're playing against better competition. You don't need to talk to a scout to know that, you just need to NOT be a moron. And any scout who says his numbers won't go down from USHL to the WCHA has zero credibility... I don't care if his last name is Sutter.

And what do Milner's stats from years ago have to do with jack? Did it occur to you maybe in his USHL days he wasn't as good of a goalie but he improved substantially? I imagine if Tom Brady hadn't improved since his University of Michigan days, he probably wouldn't have any Super Bowl rings.