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2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

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Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Rover said:
The Mittster needs that last and most crucial victory down south if he's going anywhere.
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He needs a majority of delegates at the convention; it doesn't matter where they come from.

Republicans are probably hoping whoever wins the purple state primaries will also win the nomination, since that would give them a leg up in the general.

1/31 Florida (probably Gingrich)
3/06 Ohio
3/06 Virginia
3/17 Missouri

* big gap where the nomination will probably be decided*

5/08 Indiana
5/08 North Carolina

2008 results.

Pennsylvania, Colorado and New Mexico are probably too far gone for the GOP to catch -- or anyway if they do it means a big enough shift that they would sweep the other battleground states.
 
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Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Who's your pick for having an off-the-wall crazy Howard Dean moment if he/she doesn't do well in Iowa? My money's on Bachmann. You can see it in her eyes.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

ExileOnDaytonStreet said:
Who's your pick for having an off-the-wall crazy Howard Dean moment if he/she doesn't do well in Iowa? My money's on Bachmann. You can see it in her eyes.
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How would that be different from any other day with Bachmann?

I'm hoping Santorum really turns up the crazy. "As president I would indefinitely detain gays as a threat to the purity of our young boys." Too bad Cain isn't around to say he'd gas the Muslims.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

dxmnkd316 said:
Yeah, but you're also forgetting that many states are doing proportional voting now. If Mitt jumps out to an early lead, even by placing in Iowa and winning in NH, he's going to have the inside lane already (even though the number of votes in those states is small) and it's going to take a much larger effort to unseat him because he doesn't have any direct opponents. Most of the other candidates will split the Evangelical vote, Ron Paul will take his share of the votes (but let's be honest, those votes wouldn't have gone anywhere else regardless), Rick Perry and the others will split the southern votes.

I've been saying this for months: The GOP has a flavor of the day but there's always been one underlying theme - Mitt Romney has been #2 in nearly every poll, during every swoon. Mitt probably won't do well in the southern states, but he doesn't have to. He's going to get a ton of votes from the larger states with a hell of a lot more delegates. This will be the first time in decades a Republican candidate will win the nomination without winning South Carolina.

You watch, it's going to be an Obama/? vs. Romney/Pawlenty run in 2012.
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Are all states proportional or some are and some aren't? I was wondering about that. I know the Dems are all proportional going back to the 80's I believe.

I can certainly see Romney getting the nomination, but its going to be odd if he loses the South and clinches it with wins in states like California. He could do worse than picking Pawlenty which will be a safe pick although I think he should beg Rubio to reconsider a VP offer.

I do have to laugh though that firebreathing insurgent take no prisoners tea party activists are going to end up with The Mittster as their nominee. :D:eek:
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Rover said:
Are all states proportional or some are and some aren't? I was wondering about that. I know the Dems are all proportional going back to the 80's I believe.

I can certainly see Romney getting the nomination, but its going to be odd if he loses the South and clinches it with wins in states like California. He could do worse than picking Pawlenty which will be a safe pick although I think he should beg Rubio to reconsider a VP offer.

I do have to laugh though that firebreathing insurgent take no prisoners tea party activists are going to end up with The Mittster as their nominee. :D:eek:
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I can't remember which states are which, but I'm pretty sure there are some of each.

I just think both Mitt and tPaw have been positioning tPaw as the running mate. Rubio could get it but I just haven't seen anything that would indicate to me that he's being seriously considered.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Kepler said:
Pennsylvania, Colorado and New Mexico are probably too far gone for the GOP to catch -- or anyway if they do it means a big enough shift that they would sweep the other battleground states.
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Colorado and New Mexico, yes. Obama's approval is pretty atrocious in PA though (as low as 35% back in August, has creeped up a little since then), enough so to keep it in play.

dxmnkd316 said:
You watch, it's going to be an Obama/? vs. Romney/Pawlenty run in 2012.
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I agreed with you up to this point. Don't know how bland complements bland. I could see a scenario like that if the win was "in the bag" and just needed a no drama VP to see it out, but I don't see that happening. Even if Romney does decide to go bland, Portman of Ohio is in front of T-Paw due to him being from a swing state, in my opinion.

Rover said:
Are all states proportional or some are and some aren't? I was wondering about that. I know the Dems are all proportional going back to the 80's I believe.
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Primaries before April have their delegates apportioned proportionally.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

WeWantMore said:
Colorado and New Mexico, yes. Obama's approval is pretty atrocious in PA though (as low as 35% back in August, has creeped up a little since then), enough so to keep it in play.
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Upon further review, yes, you are right. I was going by the 11-point win in 2008, but in November he was polling dead even with Romney in PA.

That was Obama's local minimum, right before the GOP House reminded us why nobody with an ounce of sense should vote for the current GOP, but a close race is predicated on the economy turning south again next year, and if that happens the rust belt middle class will be good hunting for people who blame unemployment on Obama.

Romney's "optics" (aside: blech) are worse than McCain's though when it comes to the whole working class hero schtick. I can see him peeling off upper middle class voters, but blue collar votes for Mittens? That's a tough, tough sell.

There's always this, though. Hopefully it's not going anywhere.
 
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Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

For the record I think The Mittster is the sanest of the GOP contenders (Huntsman is not a contender until he gets above 1% in national polls). He also did a decent job as governor of my state. However, he's going to get skinned, roasted, and eaten in PA and the like once the commercials come out about him closing down businesses and outsourcing local residents' jobs overseas. The white working class stiffs, the very bedrock of GOP support in the Rust Belt since Reagan's heyday, is going to turn on him once these ads run. You can see them already - some old lady who put in 35 years at the so-and-so plant speaking into the camera, telling how Bain Capital bought their company, gave them two weeks notice and now the work is being done in China. Fair or not, that's a devastating ad. I know because I've seen it already when he ran for Senate.

Romney has been done a disservice by his opponents committing political suicide without him having to lift a finger. It hasn't toughened him up for these attacks. I think Gingrich made one clever quip which ran during one daily news cycle and that was it.


Regarding T-Paw, since VP candidates rarely make a difference, there's nothing wrong nor dynamic with a pick like that. It would leave the ticket devoid of foreign policy experience. Portman's ties to the Bush Admin as its budget director might be too radioactive, so let me throw this out: Gov Walker! If he survives his recall, why not? You gotta throw a bone to the Teabaggers, and Kasich sure as hell isn't the right answer. I suppose Corbett in PA could be another consideration although I have no idea of his level of interest. Following up on an earlier comment I'd made, Rubio already said no to being selected as VP.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Rover said:
Following up on an earlier comment I'd made, Rubio already said no to being selected as VP.
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I would not come close to putting any stock in that.

Edit: I also love how Huntsman, with a much more conservative record than Romney, counts as saner.

I agree that Romney's not winning PA, btw. Just saying it's not a no-doubter like I believe New Mexico will be.
 
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Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

WeWantMore said:
I would not come close to putting any stock in that.

Edit: I also love how Huntsman, with a much more conservative record than Romney, counts as saner.

I agree that Romney's not winning PA, btw. Just saying it's not a no-doubter like I believe New Mexico will be.
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I completely reject the idea that because Hunstman is more conservative, he's less sane.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

dxmnkd316 said:
I completely reject the idea that because Hunstman is more conservative, he's less sane.
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Oh, as do I. Given Rover's general beliefs though, that's what I took it to mean. Apologies if it wasn't.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

dxmnkd316 said:
What about Huntsman?
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The problem with Huntsman is it ties the GOP ticket's foreign policy experience to Obama, which stops them from running "Obama ruined our foreign policy" ads.

Not that the Republicans are going to go near foreign policy. It's a weird new political reality but the Dems own foreign policy and the GOP will have to change the subject to jobs whenever it comes up.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Kepler said:
The problem with Huntsman is it ties the GOP ticket's foreign policy experience to Obama, which stops them from running "Obama ruined our foreign policy" ads.

Not that the Republicans are going to go near foreign policy. It's a weird new political reality but the Dems own foreign policy and the GOP will have to change the subject to jobs whenever it comes up.
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What's to stop them from coming back with, "Obama was so weak on foreign policy that he had to appoint a Republican" or something to that effect?
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

dxmnkd316 said:
What's to stop them from coming back with, "Obama was so weak on foreign policy that he had to appoint a Republican" or something to that effect?
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Their whole deal is "Obama is a secret Kenyan Muslim anti-colonialist who apologizes when he should be raping and pillaging. Um, in the name of democracy, of course. Have you seen my flag pin?" Your argument is way too sophisticated to work with what is euphemistically referred to as "low information voters." :)
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Kepler said:
Their whole deal is "Obama is a secret Kenyan Muslim anti-colonialist who apologizes when he should be raping and pillaging. Um, in the name of democracy, of course. Have you seen my flag pin?" Your argument is way too sophisticated to work with what is euphemistically referred to as "low information voters." :)
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I think that's a little unfair but I fear it's probably not entirely off the mark. Then again, I can't help but believe anyone stupid enough to switch their vote based on an ad that says "He was an Obama appointee" or "Obammy had to appoint a Republican because he has no experience" is probably too stupid to be open-minded (left or right). The net effect would be minimal.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Pt II: Bachmann Turned Me Into a Newt! A Newt?

Kepler said:
It's a weird new political reality but the Dems own foreign policy and the GOP will have to change the subject to jobs whenever it comes up.
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The Dem advantage on foreign policy depends on Iran. Shutting down the strait of Hormuz and/or testing a nuclear weapon would make Obama's reliance on sanctions and diplomacy look both weak and ill-advised (the Israelis are already growing impatient with this approach and may launch a military strike themselves since we're now out of Iraq and that country has no airforce to speak of).

As far as jobs are concerned, that argument is a no-brainer; if the rate is high, you make it the issue as the challenger since it's likely the primary trigger of voter discontent.
 
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