2012 Elections in 3-D!

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

CNN: Less than half of Michigan primary voters "strongly favor" the candidate they voted for.

There's some talk that the Democrat Party has spared no expense in launching a huge get out the vote drive to get Santorum nominated, as a way to roadblock Romney from getting it. Michigan is a good place to do it, with the unions at their beck and call 24/7. But it's hard to say how meaningful the results will really be in the big picture. Will it be enough to get Santorum rolling? Or will they have to gear up new campaigns in other states? The irony is a little mind boggling, especially so if Santorum ends up being elected president.

To be precise, it's not the Democratic Party that is behind Operation Hilarity, it's Democratic outlets like Daily Kos. It's a direct send-up of the way Rush Limbaugh told his zombie army to vote for Hillary in PA, WV and other states in 2008 to sew chaos, and for that matter it's what Mittens claimed he did voting for Tsongas in 1992 (though to be fair, everybody knows Mittens is lying).

Frothy sure won't complain about it -- he has been robo-calling registered Democrats.

538 figures that the crossover could swing about 2% of the vote, so if FM wins by less than that margin, OpHil has been a "success," term used advisedly since it puts somebody who appears to be insane a little closer to the GOP nomination.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Polls closed in MI. First precincts reporting now. Frothy with a slight edge. Here we go.

I thought the Yoopers didn't close until 9?

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Google maps.

So far Frothy leads 39.8% to 39.4% with Ron Paul third with 10.8% and John Edwards fourth with 7.1%

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

if FM wins by less than that margin, OpHil has been a <s>"</s>success,<s>"</s> term used advisedly since it puts somebody who appears to be insane a little closer to the GOP nomination.

Killed the scare quotes.

It's a success. The GOP needs a market correction. A Santorum presidential campaign might just trigger it.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

So far, it's playing out about as one would figure.

Traditionally Dem-leaning, economically-depressed hovels like Marquette and Alpena probably whipped out the union vote for Santorum.

So by that trend, you figure The Mixture probably winds up with Sagnasty and Genesee Counties due to some inner-city Democrats in Flint and Sagnasty voting for him. And in the western lower peninsula, where there are plenty of straight-laced Bible thumpers who actually subscribe to his brand of faux-conservatism, he's already a lock to carry the day.

Romney will likely carry the NW lower, where the Republicans are mostly of the six-figure retiree brand. And the Metro Detroit region, of course.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

To be precise, it's not the Democratic Party that is behind Operation Hilarity, it's Democratic outlets like Daily Kos. It's a direct send-up of the way Rush Limbaugh told his zombie army to vote for Hillary in PA, WV and other states in 2008 to sew chaos, and for that matter it's what Mittens claimed he did voting for Tsongas in 1992 (though to be fair, everybody knows Mittens is lying).

Frothy sure won't complain about it -- he has been robo-calling registered Democrats.

538 figures that the crossover could swing about 2% of the vote, so if FM wins by less than that margin, OpHil has been a "success," term used advisedly since it puts somebody who appears to be insane a little closer to the GOP nomination.

17% of the vote in the 2000 Michigan GOP primary was Democratic. I've seen estimates that the D vote in 2012 is around 10% so it doesn't seem like there's anything fishy going on.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

17% of the vote in the 2000 Michigan GOP primary was Democratic. I've seen estimates that the D vote in 2012 is around 10% so it doesn't seem like there's anything fishy going on.

I suspect the proportion of Republicans staying home is considerably higher this time around, which makes that 10% more significant.

But regardless, you are probably correct.

 

[Twitch Boy]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Detroit suburbs coming in for Romney. Up by 4000 votes with 19% reporting.

And with GR area (fundie country) already in, he's probably safe. Mostly Northern Lower and UP counties left. Not very big population bases.

 

[geezer]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

One theory has the MI Dems' orders coming right from the top!

If Romney still wins this thing, it will be a much bigger accomplishment than just beating Santorum et al.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Mittens up by 10,000 now, with 24% in. I wouldn't call it until Kent County finishes up and lets Frothy make up some ground, but it looks like Romney's gonna pull it off after all.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Mittens up by 10,000 now, with 24% in. I wouldn't call it until Kent County finishes up and lets Frothy make up some ground, but it looks like Romney's gonna pull it off after all.

Just saw a report that as of 4:30 turnout in Kent Co was down over 50% from 2008.

 

[BassAle]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

I think Pingree gets the nomination and probably the win. I can see Peter Ciancette running for Repubs, not sure who else might throw their hat in, not much time and thats why Pingree has the upper hand, tons of money with or without any organization

Kevin Ray was going to run for the second district congressional seat yet again (and probably lose), maybe he goes for the vacant senate seat instead?

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Already lots of RNC pressure to roll up the sidewalks. They think they dodged the bullet and have enough time to woo the base back (which if it really did end tonight they certainly would). If Santorum keeps going and wins a couple Super Tuesday states that's going to be awkward for them.

 

[duper]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

local media is best. they know the people and have to live with them everyday. and be accountable.

Seems reasonable

all the major newsies - Cooper, Couric, Rather, Lauer, Sawyer, Stewart - overwhelmingly liberal. they do have an agenda and they do push it. same as Rush or Hannity et al, but they don't like to admit it publicly.

it always interests me that Fox, Rush, etc have ratings through the roof, but conservatives don't have votes through the roof.

CBS and CNN are currently retooling themselves to be more moderate.

Out of curiosity, do you mean Jon Stewart. Like, from the Daily Show?

Because if you do, first of all, calling him a "major newsie" seems a little weird, and OF COURSE he admits his agenda publicly. He calls out what he sees as stupidity, and he is pretty darn honest about the fact that he thinks most of what Republicans do is stupid. I'm pretty sure he doesn't claim to be either a NEWS person or unbiased. He really is a bit like Rush that way.

So the thing is, you were making such a good, actual point (which I don't necessarily agree with) but then you had to throw in that bit of weirdness. I don't get it.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

I think John Stewart is hilarious, but the problem is that far too many people my age (20s) treat Stewart, Colbert, etc. as their only sources of current events information. That's just as bad as the conservatives who get all of their news from Rush, Hannity, and Fox.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

I think John Stewart is hilarious, but the problem is that far too many people my age (20s) treat Stewart, Colbert, etc. as their only sources of current events information. That's just as bad as the conservatives who get all of their news from Rush, Hannity, and Fox.

Yes, but one of those groups is not meant to be taken seriously.

The other can be seen 4 nights a week on Comedy Central.

 

[Foxton]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

One theory has the MI Dems' orders coming right from the top!

If Romney still wins this thing, it will be a much bigger accomplishment than just beating Santorum et al.

And one theory is as good as any other. After all it's just a theory.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

And one theory is as good as any other. After all it's just a theory.

My theory is that aliens fixed the GOP primary. No, not the brown kind, the green kind from Area 51.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

Did Newt even campaign in MI? He got crushed (< 7%).

Paul sitting at his usual 10%, and (again as usual) he took the under 30 vote. Romney took rich people (no surprise), Santorum took the Bible thumpers (no surprise), but Romney took Catholics (doubly weird, since Frothy has been running to the right of the Vatican on sexuality, and also because lots of Reagan Democrats were Catholics and they were supposed to be the ones coming out for Rick).

 

[geezer]

Re: 2012 Elections in 3-D!

My theory is that aliens fixed the GOP primary. No, not the brown kind, the green kind from Area 51.

It does look now like Romney will pull out a win in MI (though it still drives me nuts when they say "his dad is still a big name here." um, no.) so anyway, yeah, this is probably the dems' best remaining option: back quietly out of the room while muttering about how you didn't really care who won. Of course the Democrat party didn't try to win it for Santorum! If they had, Romney would have lost; therefore it must just be a rumor.