Re: 2012-13 WCHA Thread:Breaking Up is Hard to Do
I think you're right to put UNO and MTU fairly high as both teams were tough last year and are clearly on the rise. Still, I think I'd drop SCSU down a notch.
However, I just can't see why people are picking UW so high after last year's season...even in major pre-season polls. I think it's herd behavior.
Their goaltending was good, not great, they lost Schultz and all they really gained of note was Kerdiles.
Zengerle is a great player and Mersch & Barnes are good, but those are the only returning players that scored more than 20 points last year.
I'm just not seeing tangible player based reasons for the big bump in the standings. I think they're still rebuilding and won't see home ice playoffs.
As far as Wisconsin is concerned, I think a lot of people (myself included) are looking at how well they played down the stretch. The Badgers were 1-8-1 in their first 10 WCHA road games last season. They went 4-3-0 on the road down the stretch (including 5 games against Minnesota and Denver), and I think that is why a lot of people (myself included) think that the Badgers were much better than their record last year. Given that, and given the perceived fall of Duluth and CC, the strong recruiting class that the Badgers have coming in, the losses that UNO faced, and the (IMO) the return of the best player in the WCHA, and I think the Badgers will be a very good team. I have them 4th in my rankings. You can call it "herd behavior," but I think you'll be quite surprised at how good the Badgers are this season. Of course, I'm sure those in Madison would rather you assume that they aren't a top-half team.
As far as player based reasons...
Zengerle - IMO, he is the best player in the WCHA. He scored 50 points, and if he can be paired with a true goal scorer, I wouldn't be surprised if he put up 60-65 points. Again, I feel that he is the front runner for the Hobey Baker at this point in time.
Mersch/Barnes - The Sophomores improved from their Freshman seasons (Mersch going from 19 to 30 points and Barnes going from 17 to 26...both in fewer games), and I feel that they will likely continue that upward movement. I would look for Mersch and Barnes to put up numbers somewhere along the line of 15-20 goals and around 20 assists for 35-40 points each.
Joseph Labate - Labate had a solid freshman season scoring 20 points (5-15-20). If he can continue to develop and produce, I would look for him to put up similar numbers to Mersch (~30 points) this season.
Kerdiles - As you mentioned, he is their star recruit this season. He is certainly capable of putting up Labate-type numbers, and probably should put up more. It will be interesting to see if he is paired with Zengerle because those two guys could light up the league. If he's put with Zengerle, I would conservatively guess 15 goals for Kerdiles.
Blue Line - Yes, they lost Schultz, but they still have a solid d-corps down in Madison. Wisconsin has become known for developing d-men, and I don't see that changing this season. While I don't see any one blueliner picking up the production lost from Schultz, I see the collective picking up the majority of that slack. Look for Simonelli and McCabe to lead the blueline in points (although neither will touch Schultz's 16 goals from last season).
Joel Rumpel - As a freshman, Rumpel put up a .919 save %...pretty impressive. He also was the stalwart in net for the Badgers late season charge, and in their final 6 games allowed only 11 goals (1.83 GAA/.941sv%) all on the road. Those are fantastic numbers. While I don't think anyone sees Rumpul stopping 94% of the shots he faces, I think it is certainly within reason to expect something along the lines of a 2.10gaa/.925sv%.
And last but not least, you have to keep in mind Wisconsin's schedule when predicting placement in conference. Wisconsin is in arguably the easiest pod (w/Minnesota, Mankato, and UAA). They do have road trips to North Dakota and Denver, but get SCSU and Tech at home. It's probably one of the easier schedules (behind Minnesota) in the conference, and will help the Badgers rack up points in conference.
I'm not saying Wisconsin is the best team in the league, but:
- They were better than their record showed last year;
- Have a great group of forwards in place to increase offensive production;
- Have more than a capable group of blueliners;
- Have a strong goalie, who performed increasingly better as the season progressed;
- Have a strong recruiting class coming in; AND
- Have a pretty easy schedule
I have them 4th (just behind SCSU), but I would be willing to bet a decent sum of money that they get home ice this year.
