Re: 2011-2012: WCHA Predictions - Summer Edition
All stats refer to WCHA league games only. I think that’s a better measure than including non-conference games which can vary widely in terms of strength of the opponents. One exception is KRACH references – those include all games. I’ve written enough that I’m sure I made some errors – apologies in advance.
(1) DU – The Pioneers will clearly be early favorites for the MacNaughton and will be on everyone’s Frozen Four prediction short list. They return the most goals and points in league play, and are up there in %g, %pts., and %games played. Their top end scoring will be right there with the best in the nation and they return 4 solid defensemen. You can never have enough goal scorers, but as a CC fan it sure looks like Denver has them to spare. In addition, they finished 5th in KRACH last year and return more than any other of the teams in the top 10, other than maybe Miami, Notre Dame and CC. I think the Pioneers have a few minor weaknesses that we might be able to point to if they falter. First, if Brittain really is out for most of the season the likely starter (Adam Murray) has not played very well his first two years. Denver’s goaltending coaches have a history of taking guys who struggled early in their careers and turning them into capable starters. Second, while Denver has the top-end talent to skate with anyone in the country, their depth is suspect. Guys like S. Ostrow, Knowlton, Dewhurst and Olszewski have little proven production between them despite playing plenty of games (6 total points including 3g from last year in 92 games). The incoming freshmen forwards didn’t have tremendously productive junior careers, so I wouldn’t expect them to put up huge numbers either, although Larraza and Doremus should be capable players. Defensive depth looks a little better, but injuries on defense could result in Denver skating essentially 4 defensemen if any of the top guys get hurt. I will say that these comments on depth are nitpicking a bit – Denver should clearly be one of the top teams in the league this year.
(2) CC – The Tigers have one major strength this year – all 12 forwards that are likely to be in the lineup to start the year played and produced last season. That continuity at forward and the depth of scoring (the bottom 3 scorers of those 12 had 11 points including 4 goals last year despite missing quite a few games to injury) should allow the team to be competitive through the inevitable injuries and will present significant matchup problems for opposing teams. Even better for CC, many of those players were freshmen who dramatically improved last season, so there’s reason to believe that this isn’t just an experienced group at forward but a very talented one as well – all the way down to the 4th line. Top end scoring is right there with the top teams in the country and league as well, with the Schwartz brothers carrying the load. CC only lost one regular defenseman to graduation, while Doug Leaverton left due to insufficient playing time. With that said, I don’t count defense as a strength because it was the main weakness of this team last year. To address that they have 3 very strong defensemen coming in from the USHL who will all be given a chance to win away positions from guys who played regularly last year. Here’s the bottom line for CC (besides avoiding an injury to either Schwartz) – if two of those three freshmen beat out the returning players for regular playing time then CC will be a top 5 team nationally. If they struggle to adjust to the WCHA from the USHL, then CC will rely on a capable top 3 on defense with a decent and experienced 4-6. If that happens then I see the Tigers somewhere in the 5-10 range nationally and finishing 3-5 in the WCHA. In goal Joe Howe is solid, but I wouldn’t put him in the same category (yet) as some of the best goaltenders CC has had in recent years. Josh Thorimbert is a very capable back-up who is expected to push Howe for more starts this season. I think this year’s team can overcome injuries at forward and in goal, but I’ll be very worried if any of their top defensemen are out for an extended period of time or if the freshmen D struggle.
(3) UNO – Most of the time when a team loses their top 3 scorers – and guys who have been in the program for 4 years – you expect a drop-off. I don’t see that happening with this group. There are a lot of reasons – excellent freshmen last year will make good improvements, they return the bulk of their defensive corps, they have more talented recruits coming in, and of course Dean Blais will get the most out of everyone. UNO is one of the teams with the brightest future – last year’s freshmen like White, Walters and Montpetit all have a shot at being all-WCHA (oops, NCHC) players in 2-3 years. I don’t expect any will bolt early for the professional ranks but they all have tremendous upside as college players. The only thing keeping them from cracking the top 2 in my pre-season prediction is that I don’t think the top end talent is quite there with DU and CC, but I won’t be at all surprised if UNO skates the MacNaughton at the end of the year. I expect this group to just quietly rack up win after win this season.
(4) UMD – Duluth is a tough team to predict. On the one hand when the top scorer from the national championship team returns, you can’t drop them too far. And with a soon-to-be star in J.T. Brown on his line, I don’t expect much of a drop-off from their top line and PP unit. On the other hand, I have questions about the quality of their returning defensemen and they really lack depth at forward. There are really three things that keep me from dropping Duluth further than 4th. They are the way the team played (not just the championship) in the NCAAs last year, the top end talent with Connolly and Brown, and the return of both goaltenders. But I just have a hard time moving them ahead of DU, CC, or UNO on the basis of their lack of depth on defense and their lack of scoring depth.
(5) UND – Here’s a good stat for you that shows how much the Sioux lost between last year and this year – UND lost more goals in the off-season than 7 other teams scored last season. UND had 112 goals in league games and return 26 for a number of goals lost of 86. Ouch. They are dead last in returning goals, %goals, %points, games played, % games played, and are 3rd last in returning points. With that said, they do return strong goaltending, defense, coaching, and have a great recruiting class coming in. I can’t see UND challenging for the MacNaughton this season due to all of their losses, but in addition to the defense and goaltending stability they also have Corban Knight and Danny Kristo, both of whom could have very big years. On the one hand, with all of their losses I can’t see them cracking the top 3 – they just lost too many players and too many good players. On the other hand, with very good defense, solid goaltending, returning scorers, excellent coaching and high-end recruits I can’t see them finishing in the bottom 4 either. I think there are too many unknowns about this team to be confident in any prediction other than somewhere between 4th and 8th.
(6) MN – I don’t know what to make of the Gophers. On the one hand, they were slightly above average last year finishing 5th of 12 in the WCHA and just over .500 overall. In terms of the statistics, they’re right in the middle on everything – returning goals, %goals, returning games, etc. On the downside they lose their top 3 scoring forwards and the top 3 scoring defensemen. The guys who return fall sort of in the middle of the pack in terms of the stats. But lots of those returning players were freshmen who could definitely take a large jump and could really re-ignite Gopher hockey. What’s the top end for guys like Erik Haula and Nick Bjugstad? All of the numbers are telling me that MN is going to be just a hair above average in the league next year, but I wonder if maybe the changes in coaching staff and in the locker room will be the spark that this team needs to absolutely take off. I’m going with the numbers for two reasons – first, my suspicions about the coaching staff and locker room have no basis in actual fact and second, there are some talented teams ahead of the Gophers that I’d have trouble dropping. But I will be very interested to see how this group performs.
(7) UW – See UND, just not quite as extreme on either the downside or the upside. Justin Schultz is one of the top returning players in the nation. Last year’s freshmen (Zengerle, Mersch, Barnes) could all thrive as key players in all situations. And a very good group of defensemen returns. But there are a lot more questions than answers for this team. Any time a team loses about half of the games played at forward, one of the top defensemen in the country, both goaltenders and 61% of their goal scoring, it’s tough to see them cracking the top 3 in the WCHA. On the other hand, and like UND, they have overcome similar situations in past. With good coaching, loads of young talent, and guys who will excel once they have more ice time to work with they won’t finish in the bottom 4. Anywhere from 4th through 8th is possible for this group, but I think UND has an edge on returning and incoming talent and in goaltending. And I think MN has an edge in returning experience and production, while UW has the edge in top end (but young) talent.
