2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread: Congrats to Meghan Duggan!

[dave1381]

Hi everyone. Thought I'd get the Kazmaier thread going. We always have a lot of good discussion here, and I hope that continues this year. Should be an interesting race this year at all levels of nominations. I think every post-Olympic year sets a new standard for the best Kazmaier runner-up ever, the best player not to make the top 3, and the best player not to make the top 10.

A few storylines of interest, besides who will win and make the top 3:
-- Will any defenseman make the top 10 this year? What might the position breakdown look like?
-- Which conference is most stacked with Kazmaier nominees? What might the conference breakdown look like?
-- Will any unheralded player (non-Olympian, non All-American) come out of nowhere this year and earn a top 10 spot or better? It's always been a criticism that past performance and reputation plays too large a role in this award process, but this is a good place to make a case for unheralded candidates.

That said, here are the heralded players this year -- just to give some idea of how much talent there is this season.

Returning Winner
Vicki Bendus, Mercyhurst, 2010

Returning Top 3 Finalists
Meghan Agosta, Mercyhurst, 2007, 2008, 2009
Kim Martin, UMD, 2008
Noora Raty, Minnesota 2010
Jesse Scanzano, Mercyhurst 2010

Returning Top 10 Finalists
Rebecca Johnston, Cornell 2009
Hilary Knight, Wisconsin 2009
Monique Lamoureux UND (then Minnesota) 2009
Molly Schaus, Boston College 2009
Jenn Wakefield, BU (then UNH) 2009
Baily Bram, Mercyhurst 2010
Florence Schelling, Northeastern 2010

Past All-Americans (without prior Kaz nominations)
Kelli Stack, BC 2009
Jocelyne Larocque, UMD 2009
Sasha Sherry, Princeton 2009
Courtney Birchard, UNH 2010
Laura Fortino, Cornell 2010
Lauriane Rougeau, Cornell 2010
Catherine White, Cornell 2010
Anne Schleper, Minnesota 2010

Notable Olympians centralized last year
Marie Philip Poulin, BU
Catherine Ward, BU
Haley Irwin, UMD
Elin Holmlov, UMD
Pernilla Winberg, UMD
Jocelyne Lamoureux, UND
Meghan Duggan, Wisconsin

So there will be at least 17 past Olympians/All-Americans/Kaz Top 10 Nominees who will not make the top 10 this year. Wow.

 

[brookyone]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Judging by a quick look at national scoring stats...there is a ton of big guns in D-I this season. A bit of a bold prediction...or maybe only semi bold, Hilary Knight distinguishes herself as a worthy final 3 nominee this season. A couple Buckeyes possibly top 10. Almost looks as though we need a top 15-20 list this season.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Judging by a quick look at national scoring stats...there is a ton of big guns in D-I this season. A bit of a bold prediction...or maybe only semi bold, Hilary Knight distinguishes herself as a worthy final 3 nominee this season. A couple Buckeyes possibly top 10. Almost looks as though we need a top 15-20 list this season.

Agree that Knight will be one of the final three. IMHO Agosta will be one of the other two. Not sure who is most likely to join those two. Irwin, Poulin and one of the Lams are others that would come to my mind.

 

[brookyone]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Look at her go! Did I allude to a couple Buckeyes in an earlier post? I can't remember and won't bother looking...but if she hasn't been mentioned as a top 10 candidate, she should be. I refer to Natalie Spooner of OSU.

 

[LakersFan]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

If Vicki Bendus finishes near the top in scoring (she is currently third in points per games), is there anyway the returning winner doesn't make the final three? Let's also assume she maintains her 3.937 GPA as a pre-med major and the Laker's are ranked in the top 4 at the end of the season.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

If Vicki Bendus finishes near the top in scoring (she is currently third in points per games), is there anyway the returning winner doesn't make the final three? Let's also assume she maintains her 3.937 GPA as a pre-med major and the Laker's are ranked in the top 4 at the end of the season.

I'll ask a slightly different question -- under what circumstances would the Lakers be able to get 2 players in the top 3 again? I think they'd have to do much better than simply "top 4" to achieve that distinction again. I also think Bendus and Agosta would need to distinguish themselves in the three Cornell and Wisconsin games, since these are far and away the toughest games they play, and since both of these teams have top candidates themselves.

Looking back at 2007, Bauer still came close to repeating despite the return of Olympians, and she and Bendus were similar in having high GPAs and no Olympic pedigree. The big difference between them is Bauer didn't have a three-time top 3 finalist rejoining her team.

 

[LakersFan]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

I also think Bendus and Agosta would need to distinguish themselves in the three Cornell and Wisconsin games, since these are far and away the toughest games they play, and since both of these teams have top candidates themselves.

I agree. The next best team (accorging to some guy's computer rankings) Mercyhurst plays is Wayne State, who are currently 15th. The three games against Cornell and Wisconsin are imporant not only for Bendus and Agosta, but also for Mercyhurst in terms of tournament seeding. Tuesday's game is huge.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

I think it'll be tough for Bendus to make the final three if her stats are below those of Agosta, particularly if they are closer to Bram's totals than they are to Agosta's numbers as they are now. One would expect that between Cornell, BU, and BC, somebody will emerge as a strong Kaz contender. Irwin and Spooner have comparable numbers to Bendus with tougher schedules. With all the Olympic-caliber talent in the WCHA this year, I don't see the league getting shut out. Agosta might be able to sneak into the top 3 with weaker numbers than a teammate, but I don't think winning last year will do that for Bendus. If anything, last year hurts her in a way because she won, Blais didn't make the top 3, but I don't think anyone left the Frozen Four thinking Bendus was a superior player to Blais based on having a higher PPG average. The GPA is nice, but I think a weak GPA is more likely to hurt a candidate than having a strong GPA lift her over better hockey players.

 

[binnyrus]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Irwin and Spooner have comparable numbers to Bendus with tougher schedules. With all the Olympic-caliber talent in the WCHA this year, I don't see the league getting shut out.

Maybe it's not the case but I think sometimes the tougher competition in the WCHA does keep scoring numbers down and as a result "hurts" the impression one gets if you only look at the numbers. Individual players don't seem to stick out as much in the WCHA . . . it's only when you see them in person that you get the sense of how "dominating" or complete a player might be.

Any Kazmaier discussion that does not include Irwin and possibly Holmlov from UMD is not a complete discussion.

 

[JosephPSchmoe]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Any Kazmaier discussion that does not include Irwin and possibly Holmlov from UMD is not a complete discussion.

Irwin for sure if she continues the pace she's on and she stays out of the coach's doghouse, no pun intended (well okay, a little bit intended.) And Holmlov a possibility for the top 10 anyway. You're right that the top players might not "shine" as much in the WCHA, especially if the team they're on has a number of top-notch players. It is a team sport after all and top players make their teammates better, too. Those doing the voting for the Kaz are handicapped a bit by not seeing all the candidates play consistently over the course of the season and have to rely on stats more than they'd like to, but no candidate can have too much of an advantage if they're all judged that way. Haley's not a given yet, but dang...that year off playing with the Canadian national team sure looks like it paid off.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Been a month since we updated this thread, thought it was time to add my take on the race.

If I had predict top three at this point, I'd say
Martin, UMD
Agosta, Mercyhurst
Knight, Wisconsin

And the rest of the top 10
Bendus, Mercyhurst
Johnston, Cornell
Poulin, BU
Irwin, UMD
Stack, BC
Schaus, BC
Spooner, OSU

Breakdown: 4 WCHA, 3 HE, 2 CHA, 1 ECAC; 8 F, 2 G

The following players I sense are having top 10 caliber years, though they may suffer in coaches' top 10 voting from lack of prior recognition or being overshadowed by strong teammates or conference competitors

Wakefield, BU
Jenner, Cornell
Babstock, Quinnipiac
Holmlov, UMD
Larocque, UMD
Bram, Mercyhurst
McIntosh, OSU
Bram, Mercyhurst
Duggan, Wisconsin
Decker, Wisconsin
The Lams, UND

Mazotta, Cornell
Ney, North Daktoa

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Also, I'd add that based purely on merits of clutch play this season, Bendus, Bram, Decker, Jenner, Stack, and Wakefield should all be higher than I have them. But it's still early this season, but these are probably the players in the best position to rise relative to my current projections.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Been a month since we updated this thread, thought it was time to add my take on the race.

If I had predict top three at this point, I'd say
Martin, UMD
Agosta, Mercyhurst
Knight, Wisconsin

I think that Martin and Knight have some heavy lifting to do to make the top three; I'd put Irwin ahead of both at this point in time. Martin is only tenth in win %, which is secondary if you play for a middling team. On the defending champs, I think you have to do better. Knight has yet to separate from Duggan in points, which IMO she has to do to go top 3 while Duggan is shut out, because Duggan is the more versatile, the team's leader, and if I remember right, a good student as well.

Also, Larocque should have the "street cred" needed to make the top ten unless voters don't think D are a necessary component in today's game. Her numbers are near the top for defenseman, she has a favorable reputation around the WCHA similar to Spooner, and her addition last year helped fuel UMD's turnaround. I'd say either Larocque or Fortino are possible top ten on D. (And I'd vote Mazzotta over Johnston as of now.)

 

[binnyrus]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Typically, it works this way: A UMD player makes the top 3, but will not "win". However, that person goes on to lead her team to a national championship and this results in the Most Outstanding Player award. I'd take Irwin, Martin, Holmlov or Larocque to fit that bill.

If I were giving advice to other fans, put your money on a UMD player to win the Kaz and give some other team a chance to win the National Title.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

I agree that there's a history of UMD players being shortchanged -- Blais last year certainly should've been top 3, but I think Martin's different.

I agree UMD needs to win more than 70% of its games for her to have a shot, though her GAA and save pct are solid. It's still Dec. 1st, so I'm still weighting predicted performance based on prior results rather heavily relative to current season results.

I'd like to see Larocque in the 10, but D have been left out before, and she has the disadvantage of being on a team with other strong candidates, and a team that has typically been shortchanged in the process.

 

[binnyrus]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

UMD - Haley Irwin's stock seems to be rising, as does Santa's (Martin). Good time of year to bring Santa into any conversation!!

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

It seems pretty obvious to me, personally, that it will come down to Irwin and Stack.

 

[dave1381]

It seems pretty obvious to me, personally, that it will come down to Irwin and Stack.

I agree they're the two players who haven't made the Kaz 10 before who have done the most to stand out.

But when Martin and Agosta are both topping the stat charts and they've both been in the top three before, it's hard to argue they're not leading contenders. But it's a wide open race.

 

[JosephPSchmoe]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Irwin is certainly on a pace toward having (another) career year and Agosta is right there with her. The second half of the season will be a horse race. Taking a season off to play for Team Canada certainly didn't hurt either one, did it? I wouldn't count out Natalie Spooner from OSU, though. Her numbers are pretty impressive.

Goaltender stats are a little skewed with Monique Gallant from Holy Cross at the top of some categories, but she's only played five games. I think Martin gets the nod.

My three choices if I had to choose today would be Irwin, Agosta and Martin. And like everyone else, I'm totally unbiased.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Re: 2010-2011 Patty Kazmaier Thread

Going into winter break, the picture looks a lot different to me than my post two weeks ago. The biggest developments are UMD continuing to split away it's season, and the surprising Mercyhurst 6-2 loss against St. Lawrence.

Some further thoughts by team:

Meghan Duggan -- I didn't even list her in my top 10 two weeks ago, and now after further review I think she's the leading candidate. She's the captain and leading scorer and plus-minus leader of the team which I consider to be No. 1 in the nation. Most importantly to me in distinguishing candidates, she has clutch points in key games. She's their leading scorer against both UMD and Minnesota too, not just Mankato and St Cloud. She had an extra attacker game-tying goal in their biggest win of the season. She hits all the key Kazmaier criteria.
Knight might be a year away from winning.

Agosta, Bendus -- I expect Agosta will make the top 3 again as long as Mercyhurst keeps winning at it's current pace and she's the nation's leading scorer. But it's tougher for her to win without Mercyhurst being the 5th or 6th best team in the country. Mercyhurst's margin for error is simply smaller than the WCHA teams since their schedule isn't quite as strong. The remaining Cornell/Wisconsin games will be huge. Last game against Cornell, Agosta was shut out against Cornell, while Bendus had a standout performance.
It's worth noting how players have done in the past in Kaz voting when they've been in the 5th-8th range while still being the nation's top scorer. Julie Chu won in 2006-07 in that situation, but there are huge differences. Chu clearly had a strong reputation as an all-around player, and it was well backed up by her stats (she led her team in +/- by an order of magnitude), and she had an All-Academic at an Ivy. So she's an exceptional case.

Hockey East candidates: Stack, Schaus, Wakefield, Poulin --- BC and BU are both in the top 4 of the Pairwise now that Mercyhurst and UMD have slipped. This bodes well for all these candidates. BC and BU both have two games against each other, and the performance in those games will be critical.
In terms of who's the leader now, Stack stands out with a hat trick against BU on her resume, and a torrid scoring pace these last few games, and she's also tops +/- in Hockey East. Schaus has good stats but really lacks any single standout game, but she'll also benefit from posting Bendus/Bauer-like grades. Wakefield had the lone goal in a 1-0 win over BC. She and Philip-Poulin are pretty indistinguishable statwise. They're younger than the BC players, but I think BU will end up having a better season than BC. But if BC closes strong, Stack or Schaus will rise.