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117th Congress: DEMS IN DISARRAY!!!111!!

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1st early Selzer poll has Grassley up 8 on Franken. Which in many ways isn't that bad since Grassley normally wins by 20. But it also isn't great since the governor's race will be a blowout and if neither top 2 race is super competitive, money will funnel down ballot.

What it could mean is some of the house races may not be that bad, because a +8 statewide (which includes the bright red 4th) could mean Axne is ahead in the 3rd (Des Moines) and/or the Dems have a shot in one of the eastern districts.
 
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This is completely incidental to Citizens United.

Not a single Democrat in either the House or the Senate voted yes in 2017 when Republicans and then-President Donald Trump—hellbent on delivering big for their wealthy donors—rammed through legislation that slashed the corporate tax rate to 21% and lowered the top marginal rate for the richest people in the United States.

But despite the law's deep unpopularity with the American public, it remains largely intact five years later even as Democrats—many of whom campaigned on reversing some or all of the regressive GOP tax law—narrowly control Congress and the presidency.

The persistence of the Trump tax law, which delivered a massive windfall to the rich and corporate forces that helped shape the measure, has drawn growing attention in recent days as Democrats head into the crucial November midterms having failed to pass the bulk of their domestic policy agenda, largely due to the obstruction of Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va.

While Manchin voted against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and has voiced support for at least partially rolling back the law, he has repeatedly blocked progress on a legislative package that would include tax increases targeting large companies and ultra-rich individuals.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., too, has stood in the way of corporate tax hikes, imperiling Democrats' efforts to finance child care, Medicare expansion, and other priorities by bringing in more federal revenue. Sinema, then a member of the House, joined Manchin and other right-wing Democrats in opposing the Trump tax cuts in 2017.

"There are many implications to the failure of talks on what was once the Build Back Better Act and what is now the Negotiate Prices on Ten Drugs Starting in 2026 Act of 2022 (working title)," The American Prospect's David Dayen wrote in a column earlier this month, sardonically referencing the watered-down package that Senate Democrats are currently negotiating.

"But one of the biggest is that the Trump tax cuts will make it through the first two years of the Biden administration unscathed—and could very well become permanent, a symbol of the one-way ratchet in favor of the top 1% that characterizes U.S. policymaking," Dayen continued. "If the so-called party of the people cannot raise taxes on the ultra-rich they have little purpose other than being yet another handmaiden for the wealthy in Washington."

"If you have unanimous opposition to a bad policy with no real political proponents and then can't get a single thing done about it in the space of five years, it speaks to an essential malfunctioning at every level of the party and the process," he added. "Nobody should get a pass for it. It's nothing short of an embarrassment."

Amy Hanauer, executive director of the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, echoed that assessment in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, calling Democrats' failure to undo the Trump tax cuts "a crushing defeat in a lot of ways—and really inexcusable."

"I'm not going to pretend we're happy about it or I'm capable of my usual hopeful take on things," said Hanauer. "It's a pretty tough moment."

On the campaign trail in 2020, then-presidential candidate Joe Biden vowed to "get rid of the bulk of Trump's $2 trillion tax cut," which the Democratic contender criticized as "irresponsible."

Now, a year and a half into his presidency, Biden and his party are barreling toward the November midterms with their congressional majority at stake and that promise unfulfilled. Democrats argue that given Manchin and Sinema's obstruction, they need a larger majority in the Senate to pass their agenda, including repeal of the tax law.

Absent any changes to the law, the rate cuts for individuals and households under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are set to expire in 2025. The reduction in the corporate tax rate, though, was made permanent by the measure's Republican authors.

"If the question is where do Democrats go from here, it feels like the short answer is nowhere," Vanessa Williamson, a senior fellow and tax expert at the Brookings Institution, told the Journal. "You can't just keep asking people to vote harder. If a party is in power, people expect them to be able to achieve the things they want to achieve."
 
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This is completely incidental to Citizens United.

The Clintons and the Schumers and the Pelosis and the rest of them like their money just as much as their Republican colleagues, and that has been the case since long before 2010 when Citizens United was decided.
 
The Clintons and the Schumers and the Pelosis and the rest of them like their money just as much as their Republican colleagues, and that has been the case since long before 2010 when Citizens United was decided.

Yes, but CU made it impossible to unseat them. The only way you can beat a bought Member is to be bought by somebody even richer.

What a wonderful world the conservatives left us with. But just remember, kiddies. Spending is protected speech!

You should be just as p-ssed. It's not like anybody who would upset the apple cart will ever win a Republican primary again, either.
 
Manchin has literally zero idea how to close a deal. None. He's never had his name attached to something that required effort.
 
I will be Charlie Brown on this one...I think he backed down. I don't know why or how but I think this one sticks.

(I once played Charlie Brown in a Middle School play so it fits)

Edit: here is another reason I think it's real.

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1552410858092990468?t=VLAt4dzEznpY4LL_MxLDgw&s=19

It's now been an hour since the Senate cloture vote started on the PACT Act - to help vets exposed to toxic burn pits. As of right now, backers don't have 60 votes - which is a big surprise, since the bill passed 84-14 a few weeks ago

The GOP is ticked off and is now screwing over veterans (on a bill most supported last month) and is something they would totally block to stick it to Schumer for getting his deal. Some pundits seem to agree. It may be a stretch but this is not tbe type of public mistake McConnell usually makes.
 
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I don't think Manchin would publicly agree to this deal if he wasn't going to stick to it. He's proven me wrong before.

In other big news, in Wisconsin's Democratic Primary, Alex Lasry dropped out and endorsed his primary opponent Mandela Barnes, giving Democrats a united front 3.5 months before the general election against Ronnie Johnson. Looks like Eric Greitens is finally slipping in the polls in Missouri, which closes off any hope Democrats had at winning the Senate seat there.
 
CNBC thinks the Manchin news will now torpedo the chips bill that passed earlier because GOP presumed the "bigger" bill was dead and reluctantly would allow the chips bill through.
 
CNBC thinks the Manchin news will now torpedo the chips bill that passed earlier because GOP presumed the "bigger" bill was dead and reluctantly would allow the chips bill through.

Definitely not a Manchin whisperer, but if anything, I think he trolled the GOP on this one. Waited until the Senate passed the CHIPS+ bill, then says “Oh yeah, there is a path to a reconciliation bill.” None of this is over yet, but Manchin seems to have pulled a fast one on all of us, including the GOP. Sinema still has to sign off, and fucktards like Gottheimer in the House have to all be on-board since there is no SALT-related language in the bill.
 
Need the Chips bill and the deal with Manchin to go through. Democrats do that it is going to help a whole bunch in November. Here's hoping they actually fucked McConnell for once.
 
Need the Chips bill and the deal with Manchin to go through. Democrats do that it is going to help a whole bunch in November. Here's hoping they actually fucked McConnell for once.

Unfortunately, neither will likely make a lick of difference in public opinion. Democrats could announce they created a work-free society starting January 1st, 2023, and if inflation stayed stubborn- hell, gas prices stayed high- they’d lose the House and likely the Senate. We know, as people who pay attention to politics, how important such bills are, but we’re voting Democratic already. Either way, if both become law, they’re solid shifts in the right direction, albeit on a far smaller scale than most of us wanted.
 
Unfortunately, neither will likely make a lick of difference in public opinion. Democrats could announce they created a work-free society starting January 1st, 2023, and if inflation stayed stubborn- hell, gas prices stayed high- they’d lose the House and likely the Senate. We know, as people who pay attention to politics, how important such bills are, but we’re voting Democratic already. Either way, if both become law, they’re solid shifts in the right direction, albeit on a far smaller scale than most of us wanted.

We actually don't know whether this is true. The Nazi / non-Nazi split -- it is resistant to change. Obviously no Dumpy is ever going to change its mind -- if it was capable of that it wouldn't be a Dumpy. And there is no circumstance under which I would ever become a Nazi. So there it is, our politics now.

The only thing that actually matters is the ability to vote. The Republican party will do whatever it can to throw away our votes and invalidate entire elections. It is a wild beast which only knows hunger. So as their numbers dwindle they will use more and more overt means, just as they have since the 90's. It used to be enough for them to nibble around the edges, now they try to cancel entire outcomes. And their endgame will obviously be what it always is with authoritarians: violence and murder.

Meanwhile they shrink, from 48% to 44% to 40% of the electorate, and below. The future of American politics is can they suppress fast enough, or in the end kill fast enough, to compensate for their diminishment as they circle the drain.

We'll beat them in the end because the Right is the cesspool of cowardly and inept failures. But how many people will they harm on their way out?
 
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