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116th Congress: F-cker WAS Impeached. Still not enough.

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French Rage said:
Granted I would prefer 51 over 50, but it seems like winning 51 and having the VP probably move somewhat in tandem right?
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I would think so. I think of it as every election as a composite of three vectors:

+ The Presidential vector, same for ever election this year
+ The Seat's vector, same for every election of that seat for every year (within some interval)
+ The Candidates' local vector, particular to that one-time matchup.

So in ME for example you have the Presidential vector of D+6, that Seat vector which is maybe R+3, and then the Collins-Gideon vector which is unknown. Assuming the Candidates' vector is less R than R+3, Gideon should win. But we won't know until we know, Mr. President.

But as the national vector moves, all composite election vectors move in tandem.

So to extend the analogy there are "cliffs" in the Senate prediction that map to the Presidential vector. If Biden wins by 8 we could get 50 Senate seats, by 9 we get 51, but by 10 maybe we get 53 and by 11 maybe 56. The latter varies directly but not linearly with the former.
 
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Since I wasn't very familiar with Bitecofer, I've been reading up on her stuff and this caught my eye on twitter today:
https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1306938490505043978?s=20

First, Wasserman is one of the best in the field. CPR is in that Tier A1 with Sabato, 538, and PEC. It's all they do and they do it well. But Bitecofer really gets the best of Wasserman here. I like her data-based approach instead of assuming it was some sort of three snake eyes in a row kind of luck. Luck is just another way of saying you don't have the data.

I dug around and eventually found the tool she appears to be using:
https://www.politicaldata.com/2020-primary-election-tracker/

https://tableau.the-pdi.com/t/Campa...unt=no&:showVizHome=no&:origin=viz_share_link
 
I know the data doesn’t say so but something just tells me to keep an eye on Alaska here. Both Republicans, Sullivan and Young, are campaigning scared. All they’ve got is the old “they’re socialists in disguise” trope, and they only pull that out when things aren’t going well (they usually run on the old “we’ve got clout, look at what we do”). Plus they haven’t released any polling which makes me think they don’t like what they see. Again, I have no hard data to back it up but something feels different.
 
If I was McGrath's camapign manager in Kentucky, I would start airing ads with nothing but Mitch McConnell's clip from Fox News in 2016:

"So, all we're doing ... is following a long standing tradition of not filling vacancies on the Supreme Court in the middle of a presidential election year."
 
What's this from AZcentral where they claim if Kelly wins, he could take office 11/30 because McSally's appointed instead if elected?
 
aparch said:
If I was McGrath's camapign manager in Kentucky, I would start airing ads with nothing but Mitch McConnell's clip from Fox News in 2016:

"So, all we're doing ... is following a long standing tradition of not filling vacancies on the Supreme Court in the middle of a presidential election year."
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Yep. He gave her an issue to run on now. Probably way too late though.
 
Guarantee two of them are Nolan West and his batshit crazy family member.

You may recall West as having said something to the effect of, 'we should lynch Obama.'
 
Pelosi and Mnuchin sat down and worked out a clean CR budget proposal a month ago which would allow the US Governement to operate through December. No back doors, no riders, no bullsh**, a straight up "let's keep the lights on."

That living ghoul Mitch Goddammed Fu**ing McConnell singlehandedly shot down the CR because he didn't like it.
 
aparch said:
Pelosi and Mnuchin sat down and worked out a clean CR budget proposal a month ago which would allow the US Governement to operate through December. No back doors, no riders, no bullsh**, a straight up "let's keep the lights on."

That living ghoul Mitch Goddammed Fu**ing McConnell singlehandedly shot down the CR because he didn't like it.
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I rest my case. It is easy to be a Republican on Capitol Hill. In the minority or in the majority your mandate is the same. Fuck Governing. Be a toddler and insist you get your way or just take your ball and go home.
 
aparch said:
Pelosi and Mnuchin sat down and worked out a clean CR budget proposal a month ago which would allow the US Governement to operate through December. No back doors, no riders, no bullsh**, a straight up "let's keep the lights on."

That living ghoul Mitch Goddammed Fu**ing McConnell singlehandedly shot down the CR because he didn't like it.
Click to expand...

He's obviously shooting it down so that he can blame the Democrats for not coming to the table to negotiate as we inch closer to Election Day. Then if it comes to it, he can blame the shutdown on them as well.
 
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