Kepler
Si certus es dubita
True, but UT sounds right, and he was in trouble with the Magic Underwear Brigade last time too.
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116th Congress: F-cker WAS Impeached. Still not enough.
- Thread starter MissThundercat
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True, but UT sounds right, and he was in trouble with the Magic Underwear Brigade last time too.
psych
Well-known member
He’s lost 5-10 points nationally? If you’re talking national polls, I haven’t seen anywhere where he’s lost 10 points nationally from 2016. Maybe 5, but I think even that is too generous. FiveThirtyEight has him at 46%, exactly where he finished in 2016. The third party voter will disappear again this election, which hopefully allows Biden’s % of the vote to grow from Clinton’s.
Scooby, your disdain for Kentucky Republicans is, as y’all say on here, “noted and logged.” I dislike them more than you do. Mitch McConnell is, as Rover pointed out, only concerned about possessing and maintaining power. He’d put his own wife in an internment camp if it meant he could stay Majority Leader the next couple years. Rand Paul is a little b****. Our state-level Republicans suck too, especially our pathetic AG, who is suing our Democratic Governor at every turn over coronavirus-related orders. He spoke at the RNC last month. Shocking.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
I just can't imagine what the problem might be.
She's also a boring, generic, ultra-conservadem who near as I can tell is basically running on a platform of "I'm a veteran and I'm not Mitch McConnell. Did I mention I was a Marine fighter pilot? OORAH!" That's great, but it doesn't break through the Faux News wall of disinfo that Cleetus and Peggy Sue watch on the telly every night. As a candidate in a deeply red state, and especially as a woman, you have to propose something bold to get the attention of the willfully ignorant, as well as the Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, and Covington minorities you're hoping to turn out. She doesn't excite anyone who lacks a college degree (the vast majority of the Kentucky electorate).
Essentially, her campaign is the Dem version of the two campaigns John James has run for the Pubbies in Michigan, except his version is, "I'm a black veteran and a business owner. Did I mention I was an Army chopper pilot? HOOAH!"
ScoobyDoo
NPC
I'm with ya. The Dems run this conservadem bs in a lot of places. She did ultimately win the primary though and if you were going to get any crossover votes they would go to her before the other guy. To be honest I think too many people get hung up on wanting to vote "FOR" someone instead of voting for "SOME THING". In this case she should be winning hands down because what she represents and what she will vote for is going to do way fucking more for her constituents than the asshole on the other side who has been raping the state dry for his own fucking gain for decades.
psych
Well-known member
So, the problem is she’s a female in Kentucky, based on a state history that has a richer representation of women representing it at the state and national levels than a progressive beacon like Vermont does? Yeah, no. I mean, sh-t, we nominated her in the first place over a young African-American man. I’d say those are fairly good options for us knuckledraggers in such a despicable state.
She’s going to turn out the minorities in Louisville, Lexington, and the Cincinnati Metro (Covington, Florence, etc.) BG has maybe 20,000 minorities, and close to 10,000 of those are Bosnians, not African-American or Hispanic. If they vote at all, they can be a mixed bag, but either way, not much of a factor. The obvious problem is Kentucky’s minorities and white people with a college degree are far outnumbered by white people without a college degree. When Trump is on the ballot, this is an especially acute problem for a Democratic candidate. McGrath’s campaign is boring as hell, and she acts like a conservadem, because that’s the only chance she’s got. Running to the left in Kentucky in a general election doesn’t work- especially in a Presidential election year.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
I'm not saying she should run completely to the left, that would also be a mistake. What I am saying is she lacks a signature issue and the passion/courage to run with it. Running solely on "I'm not Rich Mitch, #FlipTheSenate" while copy-pasting the Buttigieg 2020 platform onto your website isn't interesting or effective.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
That could be the way to max out your votes if you are running as an alternative in a Let's Protest Mitch election, though.
It's not like KY is crying out for a Green New Deal or defunding the police. It's always going to be just this side of Belarus on human rights and education. So she may be okay running as a catcher's glove for people unhappy with the R's rather than stressing any given D policy which (except for health care) likely won't fly there.
I'm the bomb-throwing Leftist of the board and I can see running the most boring, white bread, passionless, idealess candidates in pure red areas, where every election is a referendum on the conservative and liberalism and progress will always be regarded as moral peril.
Jimjamesak
Already insane, UAA making it worse
I understand what F2BG is saying, because when I compare the campaign in Kentucky to either statewide race here in Alaska there’s a huge difference as to how they’re being run and why they’re even in the polls.
Like F2BG said, you need to run on something that’ll cut through the noise. In Alaska we have Alyse Galvin running against Don Young on the economy and how Young can’t do anything to help because he’s lost his clout. Then we have Dr. Al Gross running against Dan Sullivan on health care, showing that he’s voted against allowing people to buy prescriptions from Canada and taken money from pharmaceutical companies.
Now, Galvin and Gross are fairly bland conservadem “Independents” too but they’ve found a message that works and are hammering it home. I don’t get any sense of that in Kentucky.
Like F2BG said, you need to run on something that’ll cut through the noise. In Alaska we have Alyse Galvin running against Don Young on the economy and how Young can’t do anything to help because he’s lost his clout. Then we have Dr. Al Gross running against Dan Sullivan on health care, showing that he’s voted against allowing people to buy prescriptions from Canada and taken money from pharmaceutical companies.
Now, Galvin and Gross are fairly bland conservadem “Independents” too but they’ve found a message that works and are hammering it home. I don’t get any sense of that in Kentucky.
psych
Well-known member
Fair enough, F2B&G and JimjamesAK. There’s a reason McGrath was my second favorite choice out of two viable candidates in the primary. I would argue she’d still be behind even if she ran a race with a different message. In Alaska, the presidential race is within 7-10 points. In Kentucky, it’s 20 points. Gross had a poll where he was tied with Sullivan, but it was a partisan poll, which usually makes it around 5 points closer for the party sponsoring the poll. Looks like the average of the most recent polls is Sullivan is up by around 7 points, which is right in line with the Presidential race. Looks like Galvin is neck and neck with Young based on a couple polls, so maybe her message is resonating more. It’s too bad that they’re going to have to identify as “D” on the ballot now due to that court ruling. I hope that doesn’t affect the race too much.
Kepler- I’m liberal as hell too. You’re speaking about being pragmatic. You’re forced to be when you live in a red state. Amy McGrath’s ultra conservadem Joe Manchin type politics (at least on paper, since she hasn’t held office yet) >>>>>>> any Republican.
Kepler- I’m liberal as hell too. You’re speaking about being pragmatic. You’re forced to be when you live in a red state. Amy McGrath’s ultra conservadem Joe Manchin type politics (at least on paper, since she hasn’t held office yet) >>>>>>> any Republican.
Spartanforlife4
Generic Catchy Message
I’m listening to a podcast about the disappearance of former Alaska congressman Nick Begich and LA congressman Hale Boggs.
I wonder what the political landscape in Alaska would be today if he didn’t die in the plane crash. Begich was a Democrat who was only nearing the end of his first term when he disappeared, but he had taken 55% of the vote and posthumously took 56% of the vote in the 1972 election.
The GOP won back the special election in 1973 with Don Young, who is still in Congress almost 48 years later at age 87.
I wonder what the political landscape in Alaska would be today if he didn’t die in the plane crash. Begich was a Democrat who was only nearing the end of his first term when he disappeared, but he had taken 55% of the vote and posthumously took 56% of the vote in the 1972 election.
The GOP won back the special election in 1973 with Don Young, who is still in Congress almost 48 years later at age 87.
Jimjamesak
Already insane, UAA making it worse
I would caution that polling and polling data in Alaska is usually pretty suspect and hard to deal with. I know even 538 has commented on that.
net presence
Active member
Scooby....are you feeling OK?
ScoobyDoo
NPC
I'm exhausted and I want that fucker gone and in jail as soon as fucking possible.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
FL maybe?
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
538 Senate forecast has the Dems slightly favored to get to 50.
Here are their odds (not vote percentage) for each close state (CAPS is the incumbent party):
Dem flips:
.78 AZ Kelly-D > MCSALLY-N
.68 CO Hickenlooper-D > GARDNER-N
.62 NC Cunningham-D > TILLIS-N
.53 ME Gideons-D > COLLINS-N
Nazi flips:
.78 Tuberville-N > JONES-D
Close Nazi holds:
.59 IA ERNST-N > Greenfield-D
Here are their odds (not vote percentage) for each close state (CAPS is the incumbent party):
Dem flips:
.78 AZ Kelly-D > MCSALLY-N
.68 CO Hickenlooper-D > GARDNER-N
.62 NC Cunningham-D > TILLIS-N
.53 ME Gideons-D > COLLINS-N
Nazi flips:
.78 Tuberville-N > JONES-D
Close Nazi holds:
.59 IA ERNST-N > Greenfield-D
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Spartanforlife4
Generic Catchy Message
Gideons only at 53%? Hasn’t she been been increasing basically every time a poll comes out?
no s. It's Gideon.
recent Quinnipiac head to head poll has Gideon up 12%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../senate/maine/
A head to head poll is probably pretty accurate because we have ranked choice voting. There is a left-leaning independent that will pull in 6% or so, but she's telling her voters to rank Gideon second.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
They may also factor in historical trends and effects that will tighten it at the wire. I dunno. I trust them, they're good at this.
French Rage
NICKERSON HAS [CENSORED]
Granted I would prefer 51 over 50, but it seems like winning 51 and having the VP probably move somewhat in tandem right? I guess having the VP is probably a little more likely (but nothing it definite so this isn't woofing) than winning IA, which seems to be the most toss-upy.
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