I’d like to think it’s that high, but since McConnell is on the ballot with Trump this election, 1 in 4 might be generous. It’ll also depend, to a lesser extent, whether he faces Amy McGrath or Charles Booker in the general election. The protests in Booker’s hometown of Louisville, and his leadership during them, have helped elevate his profile, and secured him the endorsements of the state’s major newspapers, as well as Bernie Sanders. McGrath still has a huge cash advantage and D.C.’s support.
All that said, something like 7 out of 10 white people, including 8 out of 10 white males, voted Trump in 2016. There are ticket splitters here, but likely not enough to overcome Trump on the ballot. If this was 2022, maybe. I’m thinking the best we can hope for is Democrats take back the Senate, and then hold it in 2022, so that McConnell, already being old as dirt, retires.