115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

[Rover]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

The point of the 538 article is we've been lucky outperforming expected leans.

Right, and my counter argument is that its a suspect measure to use. We'd either have to be extraordinarily lucky (possible, I suppose but not probable) or he's taking a point in time measurement and extrapolating it in a faulty manner since the presidential preference of states keeps changing (which I proved using math and recent history). Take the FRITZ measurement he came up with, which is there are 10 states that voted for Trump with Dem incumbents. 5 of those states went Dem 4 years earlier in some cases by high single digits (MI, WI, FL, OH, PA) when all of these senators won. That has no bearing on "FRITZ" thus making it useless.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

Right, and my counter argument is that its a suspect measure to use. We'd either have to be extraordinarily lucky (possible, I suppose but not probable) or he's taking a point in time measurement and extrapolating it in a faulty manner since the presidential preference of states keeps changing (which I proved using math and recent history). Take the FRITZ measurement he came up with, which is there are 10 states that voted for Trump with Dem incumbents. 5 of those states went Dem 4 years earlier in some cases by high single digits (MI, WI, FL, OH, PA) when all of these senators won. That has no bearing on "FRITZ" thus making it useless.

You're asking me to choose between their grasp of quantitative methodology and yours.

You seem like a nice guy. Maybe even cute. But I'm going with theirs.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

You're asking me to choose between their grasp of quantitative methodology and yours.

You seem like a nice guy. Maybe even cute. But I'm going with theirs.

You shouldnt, theirs is incomplete. Rover is correct. It isnt a slight on 538 it is like any advanced stat it is only as accurate as they factors you put in and they definitely should have included factors like Rover brought up.

 

[Rover]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

You shouldnt, theirs is incomplete. Rover is correct. It isnt a slight on 538 it is like any advanced stat it is only as accurate as they factors you put in and they definitely should have included factors like Rover brought up.

If I told Kep rain is wet, he'd disagree with me.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

You shouldnt, theirs is incomplete. Rover is correct. It isnt a slight on 538 it is like any advanced stat it is only as accurate as they factors you put in and they definitely should have included factors like Rover brought up.

Rover's points are from the third week of the first methods class you take on creating indices with a good fit to what they are supposed to indicate, in order to create good models. He is doing the equivalent of asking a doctor, "I know you think I have syphilis, but did you even TEST for lupus?!"*

I sincerely encourage Rover to Comment on 538 about his concern. That will spark a lively debate, or not.

* It's not lupus.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

If I told Kep rain is wet, he'd disagree with me.

Unlike ahem some people I could name, I can separate the argument from the arguer.

I don't usually mind when you play the role of LeftFish and spin for fun and profit. Just don't be a climate denier.

 

[joecct]

If I told Kep rain is wet, he'd disagree with me.

If you told him Harvard is better than Cornell, he'd go Bolton on you and unleash gotterdammerung.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

If you told him Harvard is better than Cornell, he'd go Bolton on you and unleash gotterdammerung.

The funnier joke is, "if you told him Cornell is better than Harvard..."

 

[Rover]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

Rover's points are from the third week of the first methods class you take on creating indices with a good fit to what they are supposed to indicate, in order to create good models. He is doing the equivalent of asking a doctor, "I know you think I have syphilis, but did you even TEST for lupus?!"*

I sincerely encourage Rover to Comment on 538 about his concern. That will spark a lively debate, or not.

* It's not lupus.

You seem to be saying that whoever this dude is (its not Nate Silver) his analysis is unimpeachable and we should take it as gospel. No offense but I don't necessarily believe everything I read on the internet even if I usually agree with the source. Apologies for making you think critically as I know it gives you a headache.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

You seem to be saying that whoever this dude is (its not Nate Silver) his analysis is unimpeachable and we should take it as gospel. No offense but I don't necessarily believe everything I read on the internet even if I usually agree with the source. Apologies for making you think critically as I know it gives you a headache.

I'm not making an argument from authority. I'm saying the odds that you've found a gaping hole in their logic are low. But by all means, take it up with them.

 

[mookie1995]

Unlike ahem some people I could name, I can separate the argument from the arguer.

I don't usually mind when you play the role of LeftFish and spin for fun and profit. Just don't be a climate denier.

Remember the good ole days early November when rovsie was trumpeting the dismissals of all thing R?
It only hilly, but massive majorities in the senate.

How can someone be SOOOOOO wrong

 

[Kepler]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

Remember the good ole days early November when rovsie was trumpeting the dismissals of all thing R?
It only hilly, but massive majorities in the senate.

How can someone be SOOOOOO wrong

Rover is the kind of foot soldier you want licking envelopes and passing out fliers. Every successful campaign has thousands of Rovers -- loyal and blindly willing their truths from their desires.

You don't ask the cop to make policy, you tell him which door to knock down and then he gamely does it. A healthy body needs arms and legs, too. Don't knock it.

Five hundred Rovers working door to door in MI, PA, and WI in October 2016 would have won us the election. That's more than anything I could ever do directly.

 

[trixR4kids]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

The right candidate and Joe Manchin in the same sentence lmao.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

The right candidate and Joe Manchin in the same sentence lmao.

He's kinda right -- you tailor a candidate to an electorate like you tailor a product to a market. We have a choice between two gross options: putting up with some Dems who will be against us on key votes to save their own skin, or gift wrapping those seats for the F-ckwit Fascists. The former is infinitely preferable. The third option, winning those seats with a rock-ribbed liberal, is not sold in red states.

You admit those guys but you tie their hands, you don't let it go the other way. You tell them they can vote with their numbskull constituents on the 3 Gs, but in return they have to be lockstep on other issues or no committee goodies nor DSCC/DCCC $. And you use them as a voice to nudge their benighted sh-tkicker perma-welfare clod hoppers towards sanity on issues where their Thunder Gawd hasn't turned their brains to mush. You use them to learn how to talk to hayseeds. My God, that's what the right does. Do you really think the guys on Wall Street know or care about, or can speak to, Cleetus and Brandine? That's what their paid Derp Whisperers are for. We need those too.

So insofar as Rover is saying that, he's actually right.

 

[Rover]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

I'm not making an argument from authority. I'm saying the odds that you've found a gaping hole in their logic are low. But by all means, take it up with them.

I think Handy summed it up best...

You shouldnt, theirs is incomplete. Rover is correct. It isnt a slight on 538 it is like any advanced stat it is only as accurate as they factors you put in and they definitely should have included factors like Rover brought up.

Couldn't have said it better myself. BTW, as you posted the link, is it too much trouble for you to defend its conclusions after you said it was an amazing job?

Five hundred Rovers working door to door in MI, PA, and WI in October 2016 would have won us the election. .

Sadly no, because that still wouldn't have been enough to overcome all of the Bernie Sanders voters who voted FOR Trump for....well, you tell us why.

 

[trixR4kids]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

He's kinda right -- you tailor a candidate to an electorate like you tailor a product to a market. We have a choice between two gross options: putting up with some Dems who will be against us on key votes to save their own skin, or gift wrapping those seats for the F-ckwit Fascists. The former is infinitely preferable. The third option, winning those seats with a rock-ribbed liberal, is not sold in red states.

You admit those guys but you tie their hands, you don't let it go the other way. You tell them they can vote with their numbskull constituents on the 3 Gs, but in return they have to be lockstep on other issues or no committee goodies nor DSCC/DCCC $. And you use them as a voice to nudge their benighted sh-tkicker perma-welfare clod hoppers towards sanity on issues where their Thunder Gawd hasn't turned their brains to mush. You use them to learn how to talk to hayseeds. My God, that's what the right does. Do you really think the guys on Wall Street know or care about, or can speak to, Cleetus and Brandine? That's what their paid Derp Whisperers are for. We need those too.

So insofar as Rover is saying that, he's actually right.

The problem is Joe Manchin is basically bought by the financial industry and his seat is not all that safe right now. The guy voted for the tax heist if I'm not mistaken and basically represents everything that is wrong with the party. I'm sure the DCCC supports him though because they're ran by morons.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

The problem is Joe Manchin is basically bought by the financial industry and his seat is not all that safe right now. The guy voted for the tax heist if I'm not mistaken and basically represents everything that is wrong with the party. I'm sure the DCCC supports him though because they're ran by morons.

I understand all of that. I'm saying if it's a choice between him and Generic Republican then I choose him. Generic Republican is a psychosis on every issue. At least 2/3rds of all policy votes are whipped 100% on both sides of the aisle without constituents ever knowing or caring. I want his vote on every one of those. That is day to day legislation.

By all means we need to challenge these guys in the primaries, especially when they are not incumbents. Our strategy should be elect the most liberal Democrat we can in every seat. But it should not be to nominate the most liberal candidate and then take our chances -- that's the Todd Akin Error.

 

[Rover]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

The problem is Joe Manchin is basically bought by the financial industry and his seat is not all that safe right now. The guy voted for the tax heist if I'm not mistaken and basically represents everything that is wrong with the party. I'm sure the DCCC supports him though because they're ran by morons.

You are mistaken. Every Dem Senator voted against the tax heist even the most vulnerable ones.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/01/us/politics/senate-tax-bill-vote.html

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

You are mistaken. Every Dem Senator voted against the tax heist even the most vulnerable ones.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/01/us/politics/senate-tax-bill-vote.html

Correct. They all wimped out on Pompeo though. And Gorsuch.

 

[Rover]

Re: 115th Congress - Fantastik! Try to remember we vote in November.

Correct. They all wimped out on Pompeo though. And Gorsuch.

Not a hill to die on IMHO once the Goopers had the votes on those nominees. Really happy they all stood tall on the tax theft. Shows the right message and it would be nice if some of our lefty friends could be in the know on such things.