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Business, Economics, and Taxes: Eat Cereal for Dinner

dxmnkd316 said:
Second, Chinese made goods are less common than you think. I went around the house last night trying to find what Chinese goods we have. I struggled to actually find things. Most everything we found was Mexico, Vietnam, Honduras, Thailand, US, Indonesia. The primary things made in china were printed (books, games, etc), “baubles”, children’s toys, and small plastic items like spatulas. The silicone sleeves on baby bottles were the only Chinese-made part on the bottle.

Do the same thing. You’ll be shocked! Anyways, my point is that it’s the big things that are in trouble. Appliances, electronics, etc. Small things like spatulas, even if they go from $7 to $15 aren’t going to be that bad. If you need one, you need one!
Click to expand...
A couple points:

First, especially the Made in USA goods, the raw materials may have come from China, but the product doesn’t label that. The inputs to make each item will impacts us also as much as a directly imported final product. Add in that Pope Trump has said he wants to start tracking the raw materials sourced for all products imported, and it could get really ugly. Not only is the risk of additional tariffs at play, so is the cost of proving raw materials’ points of origin to the government.

Second, look at your electronics. Where were your phones, TVs, sound systems, laptops, etc. made? China supplies more of the complicated items to the US than those other nations.
 
On the oil and gas side of things, start watching the various prices of oil and natural gas. OPEC has announced they're going to increase production which will cause the US industry to be uncompetitive resulting in reduced wells, reduced production, reduced processing, and laid off employees.

Then OPEC will reduce their production causing US prices in oil, gas, and natural gas to skyrocket.

Mr Global 🌎 (@mrglobaltoo.bsky.social)

Oil Markets Will Collapse Monday As OPEC Has Decided To Flood Markets. Please Share! https://youtu.be/Fzefz-_ywqg?si=h7Mxcn5c_FmXedwz
bsky.app bsky.app

If oil does crash this week, it will be the third crash in seven years, and Trump wasn't president for four of those years, nor did oil crash under Biden.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
I disagree with part of your post. The price-demand of a spatula is very flexible. As are most inexpensive things. The only reason they cost so little is because of competition. If there is a universal increase in price, people aren’t going to delay purchase of a spatula because of $7. Spatula is just a stand in for whatever low cost things are around the house that we use daily.

The part I agree with and made note of in my original post is that of all the “need” goods are more expensive, the luxury and “want” goods will be what are cut (TVs, computers, etc).

As for McDonald’s, that’s not a durable good with universal price increases. It’s inexpensive but there are cheaper options. One of the first things cut in recessions are going out to eat. People don’t stop eating. They buy cheaper options.
Click to expand...
I only used a spatula because you did...although I can tell you if the price goes up my SO wont buy one and she can afford to. ;)

I think you underestimate how easily people stop caring about ancillary stuff. Not just the big ticket stuff but small stuff too. Some are lazy and will just deal but most won't.

You think things are bad for Target now...
 
St. Clown said:
A couple points:

First, especially the Made in USA goods, the raw materials may have come from China, but the product doesn’t label that. The inputs to make each item will impacts us also as much as a directly imported final product. Add in that Pope Trump has said he wants to start tracking the raw materials sourced for all products imported, and it could get really ugly. Not only is the risk of additional tariffs at play, so is the cost of proving raw materials’ points of origin to the government.

Second, look at your electronics. Where were your phones, TVs, sound systems, laptops, etc. made? China supplies more of the complicated items to the US than those other nations.
Click to expand...
All of this.
 
St. Clown said:
A couple points:

First, especially the Made in USA goods, the raw materials may have come from China, but the product doesn’t label that. The inputs to make each item will impacts us also as much as a directly imported final product. Add in that Pope Trump has said he wants to start tracking the raw materials sourced for all products imported, and it could get really ugly. Not only is the risk of additional tariffs at play, so is the cost of proving raw materials’ points of origin to the government.

Second, look at your electronics. Where were your phones, TVs, sound systems, laptops, etc. made? China supplies more of the complicated items to the US than those other nations.
Click to expand...
Oh I agree on the electronics and machines bit. That’s literally been in all of my posts. TVs, cell phones, etc. make up something like 50% of everything we import from China.

I’m less worried about raw materials since they also make up a significantly smaller fraction of what we import. Plus I’m not entirely sure there’s going to be enough people left in government to actually track down that information so I’m less concerned.

And obviously if His Holiness adds additional tariffs everything changes.
 
aparch said:
On the oil and gas side of things, start watching the various prices of oil and natural gas. OPEC has announced they're going to increase production which will cause the US industry to be uncompetitive resulting in reduced wells, reduced production, reduced processing, and laid off employees.

Then OPEC will reduce their production causing US prices in oil, gas, and natural gas to skyrocket.

Mr Global 🌎 (@mrglobaltoo.bsky.social)

Oil Markets Will Collapse Monday As OPEC Has Decided To Flood Markets. Please Share! https://youtu.be/Fzefz-_ywqg?si=h7Mxcn5c_FmXedwz
bsky.app bsky.app

If oil does crash this week, it will be the third crash in seven years, and Trump wasn't president for four of those years, nor did oil crash under Biden.
Click to expand...
Oil below $60 is not great. Oil below $50 is very ungood.
 
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