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Business, Economics, and Taxes: Eat Cereal for Dinner

Handyman said:
Why are you shorting? It's being propped up and everyone knows it. You are burning money.

I woukd wait until the summer maybe early fall. When shelves are empty for Christmas you will make out like Christian Bale in The Big Short!
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CNN reported (didn’t see it, mother did) that people in trump admin are hoarding three things: tp, food, and cash
 
Handyman said:
Why are you shorting? It's being propped up and everyone knows it. You are burning money.

I woukd wait until the summer maybe early fall. When shelves are empty for Christmas you will make out like Christian Bale in The Big Short!
Click to expand...
He lost tens of millions waiting for the crash. It took a couple of years. He was sued by his investors. He only made bank when the other investment banks figured out how to dump their securities and allowed the ratings agencies to classify the securities accurately. Up until literally that moment there were still people saying investing long was perfectly fine (portrayed in the movie by the guy who argued with Steve Carell and was embarrassed live on stage)

The market will turn, and when it does it is going to happen fast. Far too fast for me to react. So I'm just waiting. My IRA remains long for now, though I did increase my holdings on precious metals which has paid off nicely.
 
Handyman said:

Jacob Weindling (@jakeweindling.bsky.social)

Really hard to overstate what a gargantuan shock it would be to global markets if Japan follows through on this threat. https://www.splinter.com/japan-threatens-their-nuclear-option-in-trumps-trade-war [contains quote post or other embedded content]
bsky.app bsky.app

Hey dx...we are boned!
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So, one thing, that guy is wrong about bonds selling off. Well, he’s right about that in the literal sense. But it’s when the bond yield goes up AND the S&P goes down that we have a problem.

The S&P has been in one of the longest rallies in decades right now. So yields should go up.

That said, if Japan goes this route it would also mean much of their bonds would become worthless before they could sell them. So while it’s a threat, it would hurt them too not just in terms of securities but also economic troubles as well.

BUT, yes, double check ungood if they go through with it.
 
Handyman said:
Why are you shorting? It's being propped up and everyone knows it. You are burning money.

I woukd wait until the summer maybe early fall. When shelves are empty for Christmas you will make out like Christian Bale in The Big Short!
Click to expand...
To be fair, you don’t short when shit’s already hit the fan. You’re too late.
 
ticapnews said:
He lost tens of millions waiting for the crash. It took a couple of years. He was sued by his investors. He only made bank when the other investment banks figured out how to dump their securities and allowed the ratings agencies to classify the securities accurately. Up until literally that moment there were still people saying investing long was perfectly fine (portrayed in the movie by the guy who argued with Steve Carell and was embarrassed live on stage)

The market will turn, and when it does it is going to happen fast. Far too fast for me to react. So I'm just waiting. My IRA remains long for now, though I did increase my holdings on precious metals which has paid off nicely.
Click to expand...
I mean, yes and no.

Drawdowns very very very rarely happen in a flash crash. Extraordinarily rare. You will have plenty of time to react.

Most recessionary drawdowns take months.
 
ticapnews said:
He lost tens of millions waiting for the crash. It took a couple of years. He was sued by his investors. He only made bank when the other investment banks figured out how to dump their securities and allowed the ratings agencies to classify the securities accurately. Up until literally that moment there were still people saying investing long was perfectly fine (portrayed in the movie by the guy who argued with Steve Carell and was embarrassed live on stage)

The market will turn, and when it does it is going to happen fast. Far too fast for me to react. So I'm just waiting. My IRA remains long for now, though I did increase my holdings on precious metals which has paid off nicely.
Click to expand...
Yes he did...which is the game you are playing now. You are getting bent over a barrel by billionaires propping up a dead economy.

Patience...
 
dxmnkd316 said:
So, one thing, that guy is wrong about bonds selling off. Well, he’s right about that in the literal sense. But it’s when the bond yield goes up AND the S&P goes down that we have a problem.

The S&P has been in one of the longest rallies in decades right now. So yields should go up.

That said, if Japan goes this route it would also mean much of their bonds would become worthless before they could sell them. So while it’s a threat, it would hurt them too not just in terms of securities but also economic troubles as well.

BUT, yes, double check ungood if they go through with it.
Click to expand...
If Japan is threatening its very bad...it means China is likely in their ear.

They wont for until they have to though...
 
Handyman said:
Yes he did...which is the game you are playing now. You are getting bent over a barrel by billionaires propping up a dead economy.

Patience...
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1) It's play money. I can afford to lose. I already paid everything off when the market crashed on "Liberation Day"

2) the commodity I'm trading is at $28+. It is 3x leverage, meaning if the S&P goes up 1% it goes down 3% and vice versa. My strike price is $30 and my option date is still weeks away. Pumpkin says something stupid this weekend (I know, what are the odds?) and I'm in the black by noon Monday. If not, I keep holding until he does say something stupid and I clean up again. I'm hoping he doubles the tariffs on the penguins again...
 

Bluesky

bsky.app bsky.app

WSJ: After tech to manage air traffic failed several times in recent days, 20% of the FAA controllers at Newark Airport walked out.

Now, United has canceled 35 daily RT flights from Newark. FAA staffing at Newark is too low to handle the planes scheduled, United's CEO said. Gift link!
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I still don’t fully buy the empty shelves in four weeks.

First, retailers have inventory that’s still coming in. So the time delay is going to be fairly long. Like, Q4. Some items with high turns will be shorter, but low turns items won’t see it until the holiday shopping season. Which, lmao.

Second, Chinese made goods are less common than you think. I went around the house last night trying to find what Chinese goods we have. I struggled to actually find things. Most everything we found was Mexico, Vietnam, Honduras, Thailand, US, Indonesia. The primary things made in china were printed (books, games, etc), “baubles”, children’s toys, and small plastic items like spatulas. The silicone sleeves on baby bottles were the only Chinese-made part on the bottle.

Do the same thing. You’ll be shocked! Anyways, my point is that it’s the big things that are in trouble. Appliances, electronics, etc. Small things like spatulas, even if they go from $7 to $15 aren’t going to be that bad. If you need one, you need one!

I think the knock-on effects will be compounded for things like televisions. Those prices are very inflexible. They’re big ticket and luxury items. Double hit. Those are the things that will experience empty shelves or the exact opposite in that inventory is just going to sit forever.

Edit: bottom line, watch the turns numbers on retailers during quarterly reports. You can find them on all of their SEC filings.
 
I'm in agreement with you Dx. Its not going to be the late 90s Russian Federation empty grocery stores in a few weeks, but there's going to be a tightening.

In my uneducated opinion, if all tariff rates hold, I feel back to school sales will be the canary in the coal mine. Between the prices and availability. The screaming klaxon will be Halloween and Christmas decoration availability. Existing supply chain merchandise, as you pointed out Dx is either going to be in lesser quantity or dusty from price increases or both. Its the just-in-time seasonal items that will be harder to find.
 
I strongly suspect that prices will be EXTREMELY sticky if it plays out this way. Because sitting on a shelf is very expensive. And if retailers have to eat any portion of the cost just to move things, that will be reflected in margins for a long time.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
I still don’t fully buy the empty shelves in four weeks.

First, retailers have inventory that’s still coming in. So the time delay is going to be fairly long. Like, Q4. Some items with high turns will be shorter, but low turns items won’t see it until the holiday shopping season. Which, lmao.

Second, Chinese made goods are less common than you think. I went around the house last night trying to find what Chinese goods we have. I struggled to actually find things. Most everything we found was Mexico, Vietnam, Honduras, Thailand, US, Indonesia. The primary things made in china were printed (books, games, etc), “baubles”, children’s toys, and small plastic items like spatulas. The silicone sleeves on baby bottles were the only Chinese-made part on the bottle.

Do the same thing. You’ll be shocked! Anyways, my point is that it’s the big things that are in trouble. Appliances, electronics, etc. Small things like spatulas, even if they go from $7 to $15 aren’t going to be that bad. If you need one, you need one!

I think the knock-on effects will be compounded for things like televisions. Those prices are very inflexible. They’re big ticket and luxury items. Double hit. Those are the things that will experience empty shelves or the exact opposite in that inventory is just going to sit forever.

Edit: bottom line, watch the turns numbers on retailers during quarterly reports. You can find them on all of their SEC filings.
Click to expand...
Most experts don't think the shelves will be empty in a month...there is usually a 3 month back supply.

And I think the small things jumping in price will hurt more than you think. For example use your spatula example. If you see spatula jump in price a significant amount people won't buy them...and they also won't buy anything else. Most people who are even somewhat budget conscious will see the price rise on small ticket items and walk away in general. People will collapse spending to things that are important and needed. Anything they can live without goes away.

Look at the McDonalds issues right now. And that is both convenient and affordable. Price goes up a bit though and the economy goes down and now they are worried on earnings calls.

As someone who has been at the poverty/lower middle class line for 35/45 years i have experience here.
 
aparch said:
I'm in agreement with you Dx. Its not going to be the late 90s Russian Federation empty grocery stores in a few weeks, but there's going to be a tightening.

In my uneducated opinion, if all tariff rates hold, I feel back to school sales will be the canary in the coal mine. Between the prices and availability. The screaming klaxon will be Halloween and Christmas decoration availability. Existing supply chain merchandise, as you pointed out Dx is either going to be in lesser quantity or dusty from price increases or both. Its the just-in-time seasonal items that will be harder to find.
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Like I said to Priceless...early fall. You may be right though see how things look in mid August.
 
Handyman said:
Most experts don't think the shelves will be empty in a month...there is usually a 3 month back supply.

And I think the small things jumping in price will hurt more than you think. For example use your spatula example. If you see spatula jump in price a significant amount people won't buy them...and they also won't buy anything else. Most people who are even somewhat budget conscious will see the price rise on small ticket items and walk away in general. People will collapse spending to things that are important and needed. Anything they can live without goes away.

Look at the McDonalds issues right now. And that is both convenient and affordable. Price goes up a bit though and the economy goes down and now they are worried on earnings calls.

As someone who has been at the poverty/lower middle class line for 35/45 years i have experience here.
Click to expand...
I disagree with part of your post. The price-demand of a spatula is very flexible. As are most inexpensive things. The only reason they cost so little is because of competition. If there is a universal increase in price, people aren’t going to delay purchase of a spatula because of $7. Spatula is just a stand in for whatever low cost things are around the house that we use daily.

The part I agree with and made note of in my original post is that of all the “need” goods are more expensive, the luxury and “want” goods will be what are cut (TVs, computers, etc).

As for McDonald’s, that’s not a durable good with universal price increases. It’s inexpensive but there are cheaper options. One of the first things cut in recessions are going out to eat. People don’t stop eating. They buy cheaper options.
 
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