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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
Anyone who votes for them at this point
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Watching what has happened just in the last few days has convinced me more than ever that if you vote for republicans at the federal level for sure (and probably at the state level too) you are part of the problem. I'm sorry but all the hand-wringing over trump is pointless anymore. All of the talking heads on MSNBC or CNN who have been crying about how bad trump is is pointless. trump is no longer the problem. His voters are. They allowed this to happen. You don't wanna vote for a democrat? Fine. Vote for a third party. If you vote for republicans you are voting to end any semblance of democracy in this country. We are going to become what Germany became in the 1930s. And the same thing is likely to happen to us. And we will deserve it.
 
Kepler said:
+6 on Day 1.
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Yes. I am even at this point now. The other side has proven to me they can no longer be trusted. Packing the Supreme Court is a peaceful and lawful way to effect change, change that must happen.

But what are you gonna do if the current 9 steal another election...?
 
Here's a nice hour by hour preview of Election Night by 538. It has some good caveats -- for example, MI is saying they will probably not have a final tally until Friday. Note that states which allow a post-stamped by E.D. ballot will also be around the Friday deadline. If that's WY it's no big deal, we'll already know election night. But if it's a swing state it means we won't have some important data.

From a quick perusal the Gol de Oro is FL. (1) It's a swing state (currently 63% likelihood Biden). (2) It's big and important. (3) They count very fast and all early ballots will have been counted already. That means if Biden is comfortably ahead the election is essentially over. If Dump is close or ahead then we go on to thrash out from problematic midwestern states.

Here is a summary of the poll close times for the swing states and the comments about their processing, sorted by predicted time of EARLY call.

Code: 
ST - State
EV - Electoral Votes
D% - Current 538 likelihood of Biden victory
CLOSE - Time polls close
EARLY - Estimated call time Tue night / Wed a.m. if not a tight race
TIGHT - Estimated call [B]date [/B]if a tight race
2016 - Time AP called the state in 2016
COMMENTS - Well duh

In plowing through the comments about closing time and speed of processing I adopted a convention for early calls: 3 hours after closing if quick processing is expected, 5 hours after closing if slow processing expected. For tight races which require full counts I took the late date specified in the comments.

Code: 
[B]ST  EV   D%  CLOSE  EARLY  TIGHT   2016   COMMENTS[/B]
OH  18  .48  07:30  10:30  11/13  10:36  "Quick count, absentee can arrive up to 11/13."
NC  15  .69  07:30  10:30  11/12  11:11  "80% by 7:30, absentee counts until 11/12."
FL  29  .63  08:00  11:00   Wed   10:50  "Very fast; most counties complete by 10:00."
AZ  11  .70  09:00  12:00   Fri    Fri   "Overwhelming majority by 10:00; absentee by Friday."
MN  10  .95  09:00  12:00   Wed    Wed   "Most counted very quickly."
GA  16  .58  07:00  12:00   Thu   11:33  "Wed or Thurs."
NV   6  .90  10:00  01:00  11/10  12:20  "Absentee can arrive through 11/10."
PA  20  .85  08:00  01:00   Fri   01:35  "Extremely slowly. Overwhelming majority by Friday."
MI  16  .96  09:00  02:00   Fri    Fri   "By Friday."
WI  10  .93  09:00  02:00  07:00  02:29  "7 a.m. Wednesday."


tl; dr: Come on, it wasn't that long. But it looks like unless there is a blow out this is the first election where everybody expects to be waiting through the end of the week for a call if it's tight.
 
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Handyman said:
If this makes it all the way to the SC this case could literally be the match that lights the powder keg. Harris County needs them counted no matter what the Fed Court says because they need to be prepared for what will come after Monday. They need the total for when they go to the Supreme Court. If the Supreme Court throws them out and all these lawsuits lead to flip in overall results I dont see any way the US ultimately survives it. Gore v. Bush was bad enough...this is a whole new level of that and I dont see the majority bending to the will of the minority for the good of the country anymore. This would destroy the integrity of the election to a level it would never be able to recover from.
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Agreed. If the courts try to flip any results in a manner that would give Trump the win, there will be riots that make what happened in MSP look like kid stuff.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
General strike seems like a possibility
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I can't imagine this country getting organized for that, but we could see it in certain unionized industries.
  • Federal Government
  • Utilities
  • Transportation
  • Telecommunications
  • Teachers
My recommendation is we stop buying sh-t. Imagine 24 hours with Amazon not registering a single sale. That alone might destroy the stock market.
 
Kepler said:
My recommendation is we stop buying sh-t. Imagine 24 hours with Amazon not registering a single sale. That alone might destroy the stock market.
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So then everyone can buy their sh** the next day and Amazon doesn't miss a beat?
 
I'm sure the fascists won't overreact to and willfully misinterpret this.

Money shot:

Right now, our forecast estimates that about 6.8 million votes will be cast in Pennsylvania, on average, and the average popular vote result gives Biden about a 5-point edge over Trump, 52 percent to 47 percent. If that panned out, that means Biden would win about 3.6 million votes to Trump’s 3.2 million (with a few additional votes for other candidates). And if the vote count followed what we saw in the primary, less than half of Biden’s votes would be in by 3 a.m. on election night, whereas around 70 percent of Trump’s would be reported.

That means we could be looking at a situation where Trump has about a 16-point lead, 58 percent to 42 percent, based on approximately 60 percent of the total expected vote. But over the course of the next few days — again, assuming the same pattern we observed in the primary — Biden would win two-thirds of the remaining votes, which would precipitate a 21-point shift in the overall margin from 3 a.m. on election night to the final result, as the chart below shows.
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skelley-BLUE-SHIFT-1029-2.png


Even assuming the cons had the ability to process that, can you imagine how it will be presented in their Echo Chamber?
 
Trump advisers have already said his best chance lies in a close call Tuesday night so Biden can’t declare victory and then Trump uses the courts to try and throw out uncounted ballots
 
A guide to every step of the process from receipt to certification, with the swing states highlighted. Expect to see Nazi legal (maybe extralegal) attacks every step of the way.

We are all going to be election law experts by the time this is over.
 
I’ve decided Tuesday I’m focusing on NC, AZ, and MN. If Biden wins those three we don’t have to worry about PA, FL, and TX. This might be a little irrational but MN scares me a little even though Biden shouldn’t comfortably win. It’s hard to predict exactly what impact the protests will have and I think there are a decent amount of folks who will vote for Trump strictly because Covid restrictions.

My head tells me Biden is going to win comfortably, but with so much at stake I’m still pretty nervous.
 
A good reminder it’s because of republicans many states couldn’t start the counts and it’s designed to make the slow count look suspicious amd throw out results.

be proud, germa-I mean republicans

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonfavs/s...15050990964746

jasom Miller today confirms the plan to wage war on uncounted ballots - you know, the ones republicans in state legislatures said had to wait. They’re really counting on most Dems doing mail in

https://mobile.twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1322914905247436800
 
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I keep checking my ballot online. Still accepted October 8th and will be counted. I don’t expect this information to change, but I will probably check it a few more times regardless. :D
 
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