US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

[MichVandal]

There are a couple big concerns I have. The first is that I wonder how much more the US can supply Ukraine. It can’t be a good sign that we are pulling stuff from South Korea to send them. The second is that I wonder where Ukraine is at manpower wise? Russia has obviously suffered massive losses but I’m sure Ukraine has as well. Russia has millions of **** ups they can send in to soak up bullets but I don’t think Ukraine has that luxury.

My guess is that sometime in the next couple of months Russia will attack from Belarus a lot further west than they did last winter and cut off Ukraines supply lines. NATO will have a tough choice at that point.

So you don't recognize that we have more military power than everyplace else in the world, then. All of those trillions and trillions we spent is down to a handful of old things we give. No, the reality is that what we are sending are 1) easily expendable and on the way off of the military rolls, and 2) they have to be easy to teach based on the lack of training time that Ukraine has to give. We have way, way, way, way more arms that you want to recognize.

And at some point, russians will understand that they are cannon fodder. This is already past their incursion in Afghanistan, which was heavily criticized inside the country. There will be a limit, unless Ukraine actually invades russia.

As for your guess- there are two paths for them to do what you think- one directly to Kiev, the other along the Polish border. Other than that, the landscape very much prevents an invasion from the north. You seem to have forgotten they started the war from there, and it was an utter failure. And now that Ukraine is ready for it, the lack of surprise isn't going to help. IMHO, Ukraine is baiting them to do exactly that, as the russians will be constrained to a tiny front which is easy to defend.

Given the border length to Poland, it will be pretty hard for them to cut off NATO and EU supplies. Let alone the fact that doing that will directly threaten Poland- which may step in on their own.

 

[MichVandal]

I share Drew's concern that without a strong USSR/Russia, the world is a less stable place. And once that happens, who knows what changes might be in store here at home.

Well, russia chose the path for internal weakness. Not sure how to correct that at this point. Besides, the only thing to really worry about for the lack of russia is if the US gets another dumpy as leader. China is a good step in for a world superpower who is only checked by the US and not russia.

The real threat to a lack of russia is the US military industrial complex. They won't have a boogyman to make us all afraid of. Maybe we can actually have healthcare for all of us instead.

 

[LynahFan]

Well, russia chose the path for internal weakness. Not sure how to correct that at this point. Besides, the only thing to really worry about for the lack of russia is if the US gets another dumpy as leader. China is a good step in for a world superpower who is only checked by the US and not russia.

The real threat to a lack of russia is the US military industrial complex. They won't have a boogyman to make us all afraid of. Maybe we can actually have healthcare for all of us instead.

Don’t count on it - Chairman Xi says, “hi!”

 

[Kepler]

Don’t count on it - Chairman Xi says, “hi!”

We are already pivoting. China will become the Terrifying Existential Threat that justifies us spending more than the next 9 largest defense complexes combined.

They're inscrutable, you know.

Every since Taint Ronnie, military spending is the new rightwing welfare state. The donor class of mil-intel owners and execs gets trillions while the white rural GOP voting bumpkins who HAVE NOWHERE ELSE TA GO get three hots and a cot. It's a hammock for otherwise unemployable MAGATs.

 

[psych]

Drew argues out of both sides of his mouth on this issue. Impossible to argue with that, for me anyways.
As for Ukraine, ISW (thanks Kep, for I think being the first poster to link an article of theirs months ago, as I’ve read it almost daily since) concurs with MichVandal on the Belarus front. Russia’s been there, done that. They’re sending all of their remaining manpower into the Zaporizhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk oblasts. Putin is using Prigozhin and the Russian convicts in The Wagner Group + conscripted men as cannon fodder to hold the lines until his pivot to long-term warfare (building a real army and the supplies it needs) is up to speed. Ukraine wants the tanks Drew bemoans we’re not sending (yet posting Niall Ferguson articles that says war is bad and deterrence fails) to push the Russians back to Russia before said long-term warfare can commence. ISW argues that the next few months will be decisive, and as I type this, I see Poland, with implicit German approval, is sending their Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

 

[Kepler]

I also read ISW's coverage of Ukraine every day. But please also keep in mind they are neocons with an agenda. Their analysis of the war has been mind-boggling good. Anything prescriptive they ever have to say must be taken with at least 100,000 Iraqi civilians' corpses of salt.

 

[psych]

I also read ISW's coverage of Ukraine every day. But please also keep in mind they are neocons with an agenda. Their analysis of the war has been mind-boggling good. Anything prescriptive they ever have to say must be taken with at least 100,000 Iraqi civilians' corpses of salt.

Of course. All I was saying is I trust their analysis over Drew’s analysis of when/where Russia plans to attack, seeing as they’re merely reporting what Ukraine’s intelligence is reporting.

 

[Kepler]

Of course. All I was saying is I trust their analysis over Drew’s analysis of when/where Russia plans to attack, seeing as they’re merely reporting what Ukraine’s intelligence is reporting.

I was more warning the board that there be dragons. I assume since you read it every day, and its adjacent Iraq commentary, you are well aware that their diagnostics are acute while their prescriptions are lethal. Donnie, Bobby, Freddy, and Kimmy Kagan literally run the place. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy, except AEI itself.

 

[MichVandal]

I was more warning the board that there be dragons. I assume since you read it every day, and its adjacent Iraq commentary, you are well aware that their diagnostics are acute while their prescriptions are lethal. Donnie, Bobby, Freddy, and Kimmy Kagan literally run the place. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy, except AEI itself.

The curious part about that is how there's that faction vs. the supporting of vlad faction of the same group. Seems that the IMC have lost control over some of the suckers who make sure they get corporate welfare over people just struggling to survive in the US.

 

[psych]

I was more warning the board that there be dragons. I assume since you read it every day, and its adjacent Iraq commentary, you are well aware that their diagnostics are acute while their prescriptions are lethal. Donnie, Bobby, Freddy, and Kimmy Kagan literally run the place. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy, except AEI itself.

Oddly enough, I only read the Ukraine/Russia updates. Not remotely interested in the rest of it at this moment.

 

[Kepler]

Oddly enough, I only read the Ukraine/Russia updates. Not remotely interested in the rest of it at this moment.

I read the Iran stuff with a very jaundiced eye. I assume it is being carefully edited to fall in line with their f-cked up Weltanschauung.

 

[psych]

I read the Iran stuff with a very jaundiced eye. I assume it is being carefully edited to fall in line with their f-cked up Weltanschauung.

A while back you said they were neocons with an agenda, especially on the Iran (Iraq?) commentary they’re providing. That’s part of the reason I didn’t bother to read it. The Ukraine/Russia updates I find absolutely fascinating in their level of detail. I feel like I’m living during World War II or something following these updates.

 

[Kepler]

A while back you said they were neocons with an agenda, especially on the Iran (Iraq?) commentary they’re providing. That’s part of the reason I didn’t bother to read it. The Ukraine/Russia updates I find absolutely fascinating in their level of detail. I feel like I’m living during World War II or something following these updates.

Iran. I mistyped Iraq I think.

The Ukraine battlefield stuff is amazing. They should, uniornically, win journalism awards for it, they are the best source I have seen and more than a few times the extrapolations they have made about near term results have been proven right when nobody else was daring to go that far out on a limb (they successfully predicted the failure of the encirclement of Kiev, the collapse of the northeastern front, and first the lightning advance on and then the stasis around Kherson, which IMO nobody else did unless it just happened to fall into a Yay Ukraine narrative).

The Iran factual info is also interesting: numbers of arrests, changes in the scope and emphasis of sentencing, international reaction. It gets dicey when they hypothesize about the internal dynamics of rivalries and power struggles among the mullahs and I have absolutely no way of knowing how much of that is just speculation pulled directly from their butts, how much feeds their other interlocking narratives (cf. Iraq the Model and the whole sick PNAC project), and how much is real data. But it's fun, like a spy novel, and I don't believe for a second (unfortunately) the Iranian regime is actually in any serious danger, so I am not risking getting my hopes up. If there's one thing Abrahamic theocracies are good at, it's oppression.

The thing about neocons is, they aren't stupid, they're just severely psychologically messed up. They adopted the very worst characteristics of geopolitical realism and idealism, and left the other, substantial parts for dead. So what you have is a well-engineered machine running on fabulist axioms. They're the Federalist Society for international relations.

 

[psych]

Get 'er done, Drew!!

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/24/u-s-approving-abrams-tanks-ukraine-00079218

 

[Kepler]

Don't send 50. Either send none or send 500.

 

[rufus]

Drew just felt it tingle a little bit.

Couple days from now, he'll be posting a link to some sort of "war is bad" article.

 

[psych]

Don't send 50. Either send none or send 500.

I mean, let's start with the 30-50, show 'em how to use 'em, and assess whether they really are hard to maintain supply lines for in Ukraine, etc., before sending more. This merely allows the Germans and their conscience to feel like they aren't responsible for the perceived escalation, and from ISW reports, among other places, the Leopard tanks are more familiar with Ukrainian forces anyways, and are easier to maintain supply lines for. If the Germans only send 50, yeah, we all need to send more faster. I personally don't think 50-100 Abrams/Leopards is worse than 0. I agree with Drew, ISW, and whoever else says time is of the essence for Ukraine. Breaking through to Kreminna, Svatove, etc., might roll up the Russian lines and create another Kharkiv oblast-like retreat.

 

[aparch]

Don't send 50. Either send none or send 500.

*starts Google search for "How to purchase General Dynamics stocks."*

 

[Swansong]

I had thought the big issue with sending Abrams was logistics, specifically fuel logistics. Something about diesel vs. gas powered, and Ukraine's logistical supply being very strong in one but not with the other, and that was why most preferred sending Leopards and Challengers.

But this may be nonsense.

 

[dxmnkd316]

I had thought the big issue with sending Abrams was logistics, specifically fuel logistics. Something about diesel vs. gas powered, and Ukraine's logistical supply being very strong in one but not with the other, and that was why most preferred sending Leopards and Challengers.

But this may be nonsense.

No, that's an incredibly important and overlooked aspect of tank warfare. I mean, Ukraine still exists because Russia's logistics train didn't.

And while I think you might be correct, I also thought it had to do with training. I thought the Abrams were incredibly complicated and took large fractions of a year to train in enough to be competent.