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US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

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MichVandal said:
But he would have to be delusional to actually think Europe would do nothing over this. I understand that the European reaction has been more than the US even expected- but to think that nobody would care? That's beyond having sycophants around you. Especially since the EU pretty much projected what they would do before the invasion started.

I did expect more bowing to vladdy from the US Rs, but they really turned once Ukraine defended themselves.

This sure seems that there is literally no way vladdy can win- if he defeats Ukraine- he's shunned by the rest of the world and will face a constant attack from Ukraine resistance until they leave; on the other hand, he has to admit defeat. This is where the situation is getting really dangerous.

And either way, I don't see investment going into Russia anytime soon if vlad sticks around, except perhaps China so that China can take control. This whole thing is literally taking Russia back to the late 80s, economically. And that didn't go very well for the USSR.
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Oh there will be investment. If there is money to be made no one will walk away from it just cause he invaded Ukraine. One year after the war ends even if Vladdy is still in place you will see a lot of these right minded Western Companies and countries will be back trying to suckle at the teet of the Big Bear.
 
This puppet should also get sanctioned to the max.

LONDON — The exiled opposition leader of Belarus urged western democracies Thursday to slap tougher sanctions on Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko over his backing of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Lukashenko has full responsibility for this attack on Ukraine,” Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said at an event at London’s Chatham House thinktank. “I believe that it’s time for democracy to show its teeth, and it’s crucial to put diplomatic, economic and political pressure on the Belarus regime.”

Tsikhanouskaya has said that Belarus’ military is effectively under Russian control. She called for Lukashenko to be suspended from all international organizations, Belarus state banks to be cut from the international SWIFT payment network and for imports from state enterprises to be banned.

Many countries have already announced sanctions on the Belarus government, but Tsikhanouskaya said this is not enough.

“Half measures don’t work. They only make things worse,” she said.
 
MichVandal said:
But he would have to be delusional to actually think Europe would do nothing over this. I understand that the European reaction has been more than the US even expected- but to think that nobody would care? That's beyond having sycophants around you. Especially since the EU pretty much projected what they would do before the invasion started.
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Why? He did Georgia, and got a slap on the wrist. Less than. Same with Crimea.

Why would he expect any different with Ukraine? To him, the West doesn't have the stomach to fight.
 
LynahFan said:
I don't think you're going to like the answer to that question.

(What Handy said).
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I really don't agree. Businesses also want stability. And vlad has pretty much thrown that out the window. As much saber rattling China does, the business environment is still stable enough for the cheap labor we get from there. Russia can't even offer that without a constant risk of attacking other people.

The farther Russia goes, the more likely that the country will resist. Which means the economic impact of a war is bad, unless you are the one making the bullets.
 
Handyman said:
Oh there will be investment. If there is money to be made no one will walk away from it just cause he invaded Ukraine. One year after the war ends even if Vladdy is still in place you will see a lot of these right minded Western Companies and countries will be back trying to suckle at the teet of the Big Bear.
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Exactly. Every single hedge fund out there has had at least a dozen meetings assessing what price they get back in at. In terms of securities, sovereign debt, the ruble, all of it. It's all a matter of when. Same goes for international corporations both with current exposure to Russia and those that aren't currently exposed.

No different than the major hotel chains diving face first into Havana when it looked like we may have long term normalization and possibly opening back up. Hell, I guarantee you the HFs and corporations have all had strategy meetings with how they're going to make money off Venezuela or Iran should we renormalize with them as well.

WHich reminds me. I guarantee you that we've had at least backchannel, if not official state dept, comms with Iran about oil and normalization. Already seeing signs of it with Venezuela.

dxmnkd316 on Twitter said:
Prisoner's dilemma

To: XOM, BP, MPC, VLO, CVX, PSX
CC: Venezuela,Kuwait, Brazil
BCC: Iran

Whichever one of you pumps first gets the sweetheart deal
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MichVandal said:
I really don't agree. Businesses also want stability. And vlad has pretty much thrown that out the window. As much saber rattling China does, the business environment is still stable enough for the cheap labor we get from there. Russia can't even offer that without a constant risk of attacking other people.

The farther Russia goes, the more likely that the country will resist. Which means the economic impact of a war is bad, unless you are the one making the bullets.
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Right, but then it's a risk vs reward question. If the risk is high, they'll just want a high return.
 
LOL, the UAE is now calling on all OPEC members to increase oil production. The Biden admin is going after OPEC hard.

The things this admin is doing in the space of three weeks is just unreal. United the west, strengthened NATO, destroyed russia, now he's trying to blow up OPEC...
 
dxmnkd316 said:
I guarantee you that we've had at least backchannel, if not official state dept, comms with Iran about oil and normalization. Already seeing signs of it with Venezuela.
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I hope so.

Integrating Iran back into the Western sphere by diplomacy would put the nail in the Neoconservative coffin for the next hundred years.

All the more important if we lose India to religious zealotry.

Make MBS crap himself, too.
 
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Kepler said:
I hope so.

Integrating Iran back into the Western sphere by diplomacy would put the nail in the Neoconservative coffin for the next hundred years.

All the more important if we lose India to religious zealotry.
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yeah.. India going full Nazi is not a good thing for the world. I'm not even sure zealotry is strong enough a word. It's at the tipping point of becoming something far more sinister. There are 189 million Muslims in India. The rhetoric coming from the government and the supporters is ominous and I'd be terrified if I were one of those 189 million.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
WHich reminds me. I guarantee you that we've had at least backchannel, if not official state dept, comms with Iran about oil and normalization. Already seeing signs of it with Venezuela.
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It's already been reported that Biden is talking to Venezuela and even Iran (through back channels). The only one left is Saudi Arabia, and Biden is still reductant to do that because of his personal distaste for the Prince, but it's reported Biden has people talking to the father.
 
Kepler said:
I hope so.

Integrating Iran back into the Western sphere by diplomacy would put the nail in the Neoconservative coffin for the next hundred years.

All the more important if we lose India to religious zealotry.

Make MBS crap himself, too.
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Irani people are fucking awesome.
 
Kepler said:
I hope so.

Integrating Iran back into the Western sphere by diplomacy would put the nail in the Neoconservative coffin for the next hundred years.

All the more important if we lose India to religious zealotry.

Make MBS crap himself, too.
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Fk mbs. Another thug on the world stage.
 
Russell Jaslow said:
It's already been reported that Biden is talking to Venezuela and even Iran (through back channels). The only one left is Saudi Arabia, and Biden is still reductant to do that because of his personal distaste for the Prince, but it's reported Biden has people talking to the father.
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I thought KSA, and specifically MBS, turned down a call from Biden.
 
RaceBoarder said:
You have to remember that there are still parts of the world that don't understand the internet. So they will be taken advantage of. It's low hanging fruit.

Think of Boomers/Gen-X'ers here who fell down the propaganda rabbit hole over the past 10 years. Lots of the world lags behind us when it comes to people using/understanding the internet. Those growing pains are still to come for them.
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The bigger problem is human nature; not people not understanding the internet. Most people willfully seek information that validates their confirmation bias. They choose to envelope themselves in an echo-chamber and is how people fall down the propaganda hole.

We're worlds away from the days when people held differing opinions, yet still had a common ground meeting point because they received news from the same source like a Cronkite.
 
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