US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

[rufus]

In a week Russia is going to be negotiating with the Farmers of Ukraine directly for their equipment to be returned.

Saw a post that said the biggest supplier of foreign military equipment to Ukraine was Russia.

 

[Kepler]

Russia's offer for cease fire: "Ukrainian refugees will be given sanctuary in Belarus and Russia."

Reminds me of Hitler offering the Jews a camping trip.

UA's response: GFY.

 

[dxmnkd316]

We are 11 days and change since Russia put troops over the border.

Headline:

The Ukrainian Air Force still has vast majority of its fixed wing aircraft still available (for combat duty) - Senior Defense official

This is going to go down in history as the greatest military blunder, in several parts and as a whole, in history. I don't know how this will be topped.

 

[Kepler]

Saw a post that said the biggest supplier of foreign military equipment to Ukraine was Russia.

According to the UA they have recovered more functioning military equipment from the Russians in 11 days than they have been supplied by the West over their entire existence.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

a majority of those making that decision in the ussr believe that the politicians in the usa would still balk before incinerating them there families.

Submarines.

Submarines remove all opportunities of a country ever pulling off a first strike strong enough to knock out any possible return strike. Because, submarines.

Even if you completely destroy the enemy country, you will eventually be hit by the submarines.

It's no coincidence that once it was discovered that Israel, who everyone already knew had nukes, had built a submarine capable of firing nuclear missiles, the majority of Arab nations changed their tune towards Israel, many even opening up diplomatic ties to the Jewish state.

Because, submarines.

 

[Swansong]

So long as Russia includes "make changes to your constitution" and "never join NATO", the negotiations are a non-starter. Either Ukraine has agency or it does not.

 

[Kepler]

So long as Russia includes "make changes to your constitution" and "never join NATO", the negotiations are a non-starter. Either Ukraine has agency or it does not.

This actually did work with Finland during the Cold War, but I agree there is no way we can reward Russia for an invasion or they will just do it again.

That's the irony of coercive force. Once you use it you lose the threat of using it again, because we know there is nothing reasonable we can do to protect ourselves against you.

What makes it all the worse is Russia lying about every aspect of the war. That makes them utterly unpredictable since once can always lie about anything -- cf. Dump and the GOP.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Submarines.

Submarines remove all opportunities of a country ever pulling off a first strike strong enough to knock out any possible return strike. Because, submarines.

Even if you completely destroy the enemy country, you will eventually be hit by the submarines.

It's no coincidence that once it was discovered that Israel, who everyone already knew had nukes, had built a submarine capable of firing nuclear missiles, the majority of Arab nations changed their tune towards Israel, many even opening up diplomatic ties to the Jewish state.

Because, submarines.

Eh, wouldn't even matter. Even if Pakistan and India hit each other we're all in serious trouble. The dust kicked up would block the sun for years.

 

[rufus]

According to the UA they have recovered more functioning military equipment from the Russians in 11 days than they have been supplied by the West over their entire existence.

The post I saw was meant to be sarcastic.

So Putin is recruiting Syrians experienced in urban combat to come fight in Ukraine. Also calling up Russian reservists.

Yeah, everything's going great for Russia.

 

[Kepler]

The post I saw was meant to be sarcastic.

So Putin is recruiting Syrians experienced in urban combat to come fight in Ukraine. Also calling up Russian reservists.

Yeah, everything's going great for Russia.

What's wild is his use of Chechens.

It was massacring Chechens that brought Putin to power 23 years ago.

This would be like the US using Native Americans to steal Texas from Mexico.

 

[Kepler]

It's no coincidence that once it was discovered that Israel, who everyone already knew had nukes, had built a submarine capable of firing nuclear missiles, the majority of Arab nations changed their tune towards Israel, many even opening up diplomatic ties to the Jewish state.

Because, submarines.

Huh, I had no idea about that.

But my idea of subs is they get you next to your target even if you are in the other hemisphere, so Israel didn't need them. They're already close enough to their enemies to, you know, steal their l- < space laser ... end trans >

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Huh, I had no idea about that.

But my idea of subs is they get you next to your target even if you are in the other hemisphere, so Israel didn't need them. They're already close enough to their enemies to, you know, steal their l- < space laser ... end trans >

Basically, the way it works, is the subs can hide anywhere. If they don't receive a message after x amount of time, the protocol is to fire their nuclear weapons at the enemy.

That's very simplistic, because obviously there are a ton of fail safes in there. But the point is, you can't wipe out your enemy without guaranteeing a response. Doesn't matter how close you are, like Israel. If Israel couldn't respond conventionally, they need that guarantee response as a deterrent.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

What's wild is his use of Chechens.

It was massacring Chechens that brought Putin to power 23 years ago.

This would be like the US using Native Americans to steal Texas from Mexico.

It was the Native Americans language which they helped us with as a perfect encryption code in WWII.

The Cherokee code talkers were the first ones, actually originally used in WWI.

 

[dxmnkd316]

According to the UA they have recovered more functioning military equipment from the Russians in 11 days than they have been supplied by the West over their entire existence.

I saw someone on Twitter make that point and quickly remind us that we're probably not seeing all Ukrainian losses due to the way the West seems to be consuming (and receiving) more pro-UA propaganda. Which makes sense. We preferentially seek it out. I don't know if we have an accurate picture of their losses (or Russia's for that matter). But generally, I still think it's incredible the numbers we are seeing.

 

[aparch]

This is going to go down in history as the greatest military blunder, in several parts and as a whole, in history. I don't know how this will be topped.

Another point I discussed over Twitter this weekend with a friend was the transportation infrastructure Ukraine has, Russian troops are trying to use, and the time of year in Northern Ukraine.

It's spring thaw. The ground is wet from snow and spring rain, and muddy. This is why we saw tanks and trucks getting stuck in fields; why they're is a 40 mile parking lot northwest of Kyiv; and why the ground assault has slowed so much.

The Twitter threads that spurred the discussion made two points.

One: because of the lack of maintanence/corruption for the last thirty years since the Soviet break up, the runber tires, rubber hoses, fluids, haven't been kept up as well as they should. Tires not used often will start to dry rot. If these troops haven't done more than the occasional weekend warrior-ing, trucks are going to start having mechanical troubles, including tire failures.

Since these vehicles are limited to the roads, they bec9me stuck until spare tires/mechanics can repair these vehicles and get the columna moving again. And, depending on the backups, these repair trucks may be miles back.

And fuel issues. These vehicles are thirsty and require a lot of fuel. Again, those fuel trucks may be located way back from the problem.

Two: vehicle fires are damaging the pavement causing failures in the road.



And this is where I could flex my knowlege.


Pavement failures are going to happen when these trucks and tanks burn to the frame where they're stopped. Asphalt, when super heated, dries out and becomes brittle. Along with the pavement not being thick enough to support the weight of these tanks/trucks stopped on top of it, it's going to fail.

And the subgrade (aggregate) below the pavement is also going to fail from the stresses of the weight on top of it. The other leading cause of pavement failure is potholes from a freeze/thaw cycle coupled with with saturated ground next to and under the roadbed.

Ice lenses (pockets of ice formed from trapped water under a road from a seasonal frost) will cause pavement to heave when these lenses form, and once the ice melts and the water is absorbed or drains, those voids under the road will cause potholes to form.

To top it off, say these troops do get the convoy moving, they're not driving on roads designed to handle that kind of weight. Pavement, and aggregate subgrade, flexes when put under a load. The amount of deflection allowed is small, but there is an allowance for it.

When you start rolling that equipment, the ground will start pumping from the constant flexing of *overweight* - no weight - *overweight* - no weight ... etc. This pumping of the ground is going to wick up moisture from under the road and surrounding farmland, pulling that water under the roadbed causing..... you guessed it.... voids and failure of the road.


Tl;dr: Putin couldn't have picked a worse time to invade, geologically speaking.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Putin couldn't have picked a worse time to invade, geologically speaking.

I've been reading a lot about this aspect, and it brings up an interesting thought. China may have helped Ukraine.

Before the invasion, all the US military experts said that the window to do this was small. Ergo, it had to be done while the ground was still frozen. There is a lot of speculation when Putin and Xi met at the Olympics, Xi implored him to wait till after the Olympics to start the invasion. If true, Russia missed their window. And China made it so much harder for Putin...

Irony is a bitch.

As for your excellent info on roads, I remember reading that the city roads may not be strong enough to handle tanks. And that's if they are in perfect condition.

 

[rufus]

Related, if Russia is now shipping in civilian trucks to support and replace the ones they've already lost, those trucks are even less capable of being used in anything other than paved road situations. No off-roading the bread truck.

In addition, they don't have parts for these dozens of different type vehicles, so when they break down, they're done.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Related, if Russia is now shipping in civilian trucks to support and replace the ones they've already lost, those trucks are even less capable of being used in anything other than paved road situations. No off-roading the bread truck.

In addition, they don't have parts for these dozens of different type vehicles, so when they break down, they're done.

And military grade bullets will easily penetrate them. I wonder what the Russian soldier who is ordered to get in one is thinking...

 

[dxmnkd316]

I've been reading a lot about this aspect, and it brings up an interesting thought. China may have helped Ukraine.

Before the invasion, all the US military experts said that the window to do this was small. Ergo, it had to be done while the ground was still frozen. There is a lot of speculation when Putin and Xi met at the Olympics, Xi implored him to wait till after the Olympics to start the invasion. If true, Russia missed their window. And China made it so much harder for Putin...

Irony is a *****.

As for your excellent info on roads, I remember reading that the city roads may not be strong enough to handle tanks. And that's if they are in perfect condition.

I read somewhere that it was made worse by the ukrainians, likely intentionally by turning off the pumps at one of the primary reservoirs making the flooding even worse than it would normally be.

okay i have not seen any really great confirmation of this so far but kyiv may have turned off the pumps which lift the irpin to the kyiv reservoir, completely saturating the flood plains north of the city?

Before and after Sentinel-1 images of an area north of Kyiv that was flooded by Ukrainian troops to slow Russian advances in the area.

 

[dxmnkd316]

I've been reading a lot about this aspect, and it brings up an interesting thought. China may have helped Ukraine.

Before the invasion, all the US military experts said that the window to do this was small. Ergo, it had to be done while the ground was still frozen. There is a lot of speculation when Putin and Xi met at the Olympics, Xi implored him to wait till after the Olympics to start the invasion. If true, Russia missed their window. And China made it so much harder for Putin...

Irony is a *****.

As for your excellent info on roads, I remember reading that the city roads may not be strong enough to handle tanks. And that's if they are in perfect condition.

I can't tell if that's some galaxy-brained sh--it or if you're onto something. If I'm putin, that question haunts the shit out of me. It's not like it wasn't known about the mud. Hundreds of articles were published detailing this back in like January and even early February. Putin had to have known about the mud. SOmeone had to. I just don't get it.