Ukraine could call their bluff, renounce Donetsk and Luhansk, and join NATO and the EU now.
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Addition by subtraction.
The other possibility is Russia does invade and gets bogged down in a nightmare asymmetric conflict which bankrupts the country, wrecks the military, and destabilizes the oligarchs' regime.
I would think this puts a target on Putin’s head right? I can’t imagine the oligarchs want any part of it.
What would happen if Putin nuked Kyiv? Would the west respond with military action? Just a random thing I’ve wondered about.