Re: Yale Bulldogs Hockey - 2012-2013
OK. Some preliminaries. Yale currently loses 5 comparisons. Four of those are irreversible. It is still possible to flip the UND comparison, either by flipping the ComOpp component (if ND plays DU or CC in their tournament and loses) or, conceivable, the TUC comparison if UND gets to the tournament and loses their first game to a TUC. So Yale's upside is 27 comparisons. Now, on the other end, the following comparisons are loseable: Lowell, New Hampshire, St. Cloud, Notre Dame, Denver, Mankato, Niagara, and possibly Union, though it's hard to tell. Two losses combined with wins by the teams listed might flip all of them, although that's really unlikely. But the downside is maybe as low as 18 comparisons, which looks like it's about 13th or 14th seed. Combine that with a few longshot tournament winners, and that, I think, is the perfect storm that knocks us out. But this all from eyeballing it. I'll try and do detailed simulations tomorrow.
I just realized: I'm not positive whether the teams are reseeded in AC or not. CHN implies not, which means we play the winner of RPI/Brown. Anybody know if that's right?