World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

[jmh]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

I don't want any part of Belgium, Elo notwithstanding. They're really good and kind of demolished us back in May (a few days before more or less the same group of players beat Germany, though admittedly a B+ German team). I suppose anything other than drawing Brazil would be fine, though.

Can't disagree about Algeria and Bosnia though.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

From what I've seen they're likely to end up thrown into Pot 3, but can't get drawn against Spain, Germany, Belgium, or Switzerland - which is kind of stupid.

Probably the worst case scenario for the US is to end up in a group with Brazil, the Netherlands, and either England or Chile, depending on the pots.

Best case by Elo is being drawn with Belgium, Algeria, and Bosnia. Certainly wouldn't turn up my nose at that. The US would actually be the top ranked Elo team in that group.

EDIT: Regardless, the USA is pretty much by far the top ranked team in the weakest pot, which all but guarantees that any group they are included in is going to be the group of death.

That's basically the same as the special pot. It makes sense. can't have 3 UEFA teams in one group, easiest way to guarantee that is the leftover UEFA team (France) ends up in the group of 7 and can't be drawn into a group where the seed is UEFA. Some might call that lucky but I think Belgium and Switzerland are 2 of the least deserving teams for a seed.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Agreed. Maybe an ideal group to be in would be Switzerland, Algeria, and Bosnia.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

I don't want any part of Belgium, Elo notwithstanding. They're really good and kind of demolished us back in May (a few days before more or less the same group of players beat Germany, though admittedly a B+ German team). I suppose anything other than drawing Brazil would be fine, though.

Elo also sees Switzerland as a favorable seeded draw. Brazil to me would be the worst on a whole host of reasons (not the least of which includes getting to kick off the tournament against them, at home). The four worst overall to be stuck with, IMHO, would be Brazil, Spain, Argentina, or Germany.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Elo also sees Switzerland as a favorable seeded draw. Brazil to me would be the worst on a whole host of reasons (not the least of which includes getting to kick off the tournament against them, at home). The four worst overall to be stuck with, IMHO, would be Brazil, Spain, Argentina, or Germany.

On so many layers, I don't know what we should want for the US other than hoping for Switzerland and Algeria. beyond that, do we want to avoid CONMEBOL since its in South America? We have a 75% chance of drawing a CONMEBOL in our group and a 62.5% chance of drawing 2 UEFA sides. USA is basically screwed by being the best team in by far the worst pot.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

On so many layers, I don't know what we should want for the US other than hoping for Switzerland and Algeria. beyond that, do we want to avoid CONMEBOL since its in South America? We have a 75% chance of drawing a CONMEBOL in our group and a 62.5% chance of drawing 2 UEFA sides. USA is basically screwed by being the best team in by far the worst pot.

I've characterized our hopes thusly:
Seeds: Not Brazil, Spain, Argentina, or Germany (50% chance of this happening)
CONMEBOL/CAF pot: Not Chile or France (75% chance of this happening)
UEFA pot: Not Netherlands, England, Italy, or Portugal (50% chance of this happening)

Getting 2 out of 3 of these to come true seems manageable. But this is still the World Cup, so it's going to be three challenging teams no matter who gets drawn where, especially since there's no especially crappy team that somehow made its way in this time around. In that light, some of the lesser teams from South America should be acceptable, including Colombia and Uruguay.

EDIT: This includes not caring about African teams in general, although there's a psychological reason not to want Ghana, of course.

 

[Priceless]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Would it surprise anyone to see Mexico drawn into an easy bracket and breeze into the final eight?

 

[jmh]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Would it surprise anyone to see Mexico drawn into an easy bracket and breeze into the final eight?

It wouldn't surprise me any more than it would surprise me to see us drawn into an easy group, which is to say it would surprise me a lot because there are very few easy groups, most of which probably involve Honduras or Australia, with which neither of us can be drawn. It would surprise me even more to see them win a Round of 16 match because they suck.

 

[manurespreader]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Had a good discussion about the US chances at the wc with a guy I know.

His opinion which has merit, is that klinssman will pack it in, play very defensive and counter attack, hoping to get a break. He says that the gap between US youth players and European/ everyone else, at the youth level is getting larger not smaller, and the talent is not there to compete. Witness the game vs Scotland last week.

 

[bigmrg74]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Would it surprise anyone to see Mexico drawn into an easy bracket and breeze into the final eight?

Doubt it. They'll be lucky to just make the round of 16. And from there they would have to face at least 3 other good teams to get to the finals, with decent odds of one of those other teams being a favorite to win the whole shebang as things stand right now.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Would it surprise anyone to see Mexico drawn into an easy bracket and breeze into the final eight?

assuming that, somehow, USA and Mexico both survive pool play, it would not surprise me at all to see them face each other in the knockout round.

 

[JF_Gophers]

Had a good discussion about the US chances at the wc with a guy I know.

His opinion which has merit, is that klinssman will pack it in, play very defensive and counter attack, hoping to get a break. He says that the gap between US youth players and European/ everyone else, at the youth level is getting larger not smaller, and the talent is not there to compete. Witness the game vs Scotland last week.

Age old issue of our best athletes playing many other sports.

 

[jmh]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Had a good discussion about the US chances at the wc with a guy I know.

His opinion which has merit, is that klinssman will pack it in, play very defensive and counter attack, hoping to get a break. He says that the gap between US youth players and European/ everyone else, at the youth level is getting larger not smaller, and the talent is not there to compete. Witness the game vs Scotland last week.

Did your friend say why he thinks Klinsmann will change strategies at this point? I mean, I think we can be very effective on the counter, but it just seems like a strange time to switch things up.

 

[J.D.]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

I don't know how the whole ranking system/pots work, but my understanding is that we are currently in the #4 pot if you will with the rest of the "bad" teams. What is a realistic path to avoiding the worst pot designation for the next World Cup? How is it determined?

 

[Priceless]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

I don't know how the whole ranking system/pots work, but my understanding is that we are currently in the #4 pot if you will with the rest of the "bad" teams. What is a realistic path to avoiding the worst pot designation for the next World Cup? How is it determined?

Move the United States to Africa. A few billion balloons should do the trick, eh?

 

[Craig P.]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

I don't know how the whole ranking system/pots work, but my understanding is that we are currently in the #4 pot if you will with the rest of the "bad" teams. What is a realistic path to avoiding the worst pot designation for the next World Cup? How is it determined?

It's determined through a combination of ease of application (FIFA preferring pots that consist of eight teams for an easier draw structure) and, presumably, relative valuation of each confederation. In the latter regard, CONCACAF actually fares well, as it has the next highest FIFA rankings fudge factor after UEFA and CONMEBOL, so it's at least theoretically possible that FIFA would prefer to put CONCACAF with CONMEBOL in assigning the pots (but this isn't likely because the numbers wouldn't work out evenly).

There are three possible paths to avoiding the worst pot.
#1: Get a seed. This will likely require some combination of advancing deep into the World Cup, an overall strong performance by CONCACAF to positively swing CONCACAF's FIFA rankings fudge factor, and going on a tear for the next three years.
#2: Get lucky with the distribution of qualifiers for 2018 such that it's more convenient to group CONCACAF with Africa than Asia.
#3: Have CONCACAF and AFC surpass CAF and CONMEBOL such that when we stay in the same pot, it's no longer the worst.

That's basically the same as the special pot. It makes sense. can't have 3 UEFA teams in one group, easiest way to guarantee that is the leftover UEFA team (France) ends up in the group of 7 and can't be drawn into a group where the seed is UEFA. Some might call that lucky but I think Belgium and Switzerland are 2 of the least deserving teams for a seed.

It's really a question of whether they decide beforehand which team it is. If they decide beforehand, then that particular team is guaranteed to be placed with a CONMEBOL seed. If not, then most likely, the first UEFA team they draw will then be drawn to a CONMEBOL-led group, and after that the UEFA draw will proceed normally.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

It seems to me that whatever pool that includes the USA will automatically become the "group of death" because it will have the USA in it. USA right now is probably the strongest team in CONCACEF, CAF, and AFC combined.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

It seems to me that whatever pool that includes the USA will automatically become the "group of death" because it will have the USA in it. USA right now is probably the strongest team in CONCACEF, CAF, and AFC combined.

EDIT: Regardless, the USA is pretty much by far the top ranked team in the weakest pot, which all but guarantees that any group they are included in is going to be the group of death.

 

[Red Cloud]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

First simulation with ESPN's draw simulator spit out this.

Group A: Brazil, Netherlands, USA, France
Group B: Belgium, Mexico, Algeria, Bosnia

If that actually happened I would off myself. Possibly.

http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1624463/world-cup-2014-draw-simulator?cc=5901

 

[manurespreader]

Re: World Soccer XXIV: The Road to Rio

Did your friend say why he thinks Klinsmann will change strategies at this point? I mean, I think we can be very effective on the counter, but it just seems like a strange time to switch things up.

No, he didn't specifically say why, other than his comment that we just don't have enough talent.

for my part, I wouldn't mind drawing England. I think that Klinsmann will change based on the opponent. I like what we have done so far, but who knows what we will do.