World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

Colombia didn't qualify in 2010. That'll take them out of the running alone.

I'm telling you that's not how they do it anymore. As best as I can find, the 2014 world cup will be seeded the same way the 2010 world cup was...using the most recent FIFA Rankings (October).

 

[unofan]

And yet at this point in our history, it's **** near a given that we'll get through it.

Compare that to the experience of countries that are on par with us in the FIFA rankings and have to trudge through the UEFA qualification route.

It's the same argument we have every spring when it comes to march madness. Big schools vs. Mid-majors. I'd argue the mid-majors always get screwed in seeding, Gonzaga notwithstanding. Otherwise, the debate over whether it is better to be a big fish in a small pond or a regular fish in a big pond will rage on forever.

 

[JF_Gophers]

It's the same argument we have every spring when it comes to march madness. Big schools vs. Mid-majors. I'd argue the mid-majors always get screwed in seeding, Gonzaga notwithstanding. Otherwise, the debate over whether it is better to be a big fish in a small pond or a regular fish in a big pond will rage on forever.

being that the wc is once every 4 yrs, being the big fish in a small pond and always making the field is the clear choice.

 

[burgie12]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

Obviously, nobody will ever get paired with UEFA, so that leaves the CAF, CONMEBOL, and AFC for possibilities (and potentially OFC as an add-on). We were paired with CAF in 2002, and AFC in 2006 and 2010.

Let's assume that Italy passes Colombia in the World Cup rankings. This leaves the Top 7 nations as 6 UEFA and 1 CONMEBOL. Add in Brazil as host and you have a 6/2 split.

Let's also assume that New Zealand loses their Inter-Continental playoff against the 4th CONCACAF team.

That means that there are:
4 CONCACAF,
4 or 5 AFC,
5 CAF,
3 or 4 CONMEBOL, and
7 UEFA squads left to be put into pots of 8.

These numbers don't split nicely. Would they purposefully limit Pot A to 5 UEFA and 3 CONMEBOL? Even then, if CONMEBOL loses the playoff against AFC, then you're left with 4, 5, 5, and 2 to be split into two pots of 8. Again, not nice numbers.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

And yet at this point in our history, it's **** near a given that we'll get through it.

Compare that to the experience of countries that are on par with us in the FIFA rankings and have to trudge through the UEFA qualification route.

I've always been surprised that UEFA plays only 10-12 qualifiers compared to the CONCACAF, not to mention how different all the qualifying is. CONMEBOL and it's giant single table, UEFA with is single round plus playoffs for runner ups, etc. So much variety, especially in the number of games it takes to qualify. New Zealand went 5-0-1 to qualify for the 2010 world cup.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

Let's assume that Italy passes Colombia in the World Cup rankings. This leaves the Top 7 nations as 6 UEFA and 1 CONMEBOL. Add in Brazil as host and you have a 6/2 split.

Let's also assume that New Zealand loses their Inter-Continental playoff against the 4th CONCACAF team.

That means that there are:
4 CONCACAF,
4 or 5 AFC,
5 CAF,
3 or 4 CONMEBOL, and
7 UEFA squads left to be put into pots of 8.

These numbers don't split nicely. Would they purposefully limit Pot A to 5 UEFA and 3 CONMEBOL? Even then, if CONMEBOL loses the playoff against AFC, then you're left with 4, 5, 5, and 2 to be split into two pots of 8. Again, not nice numbers.

I'm guessing if CONMEBOL wins the playoff they will take an african side and place it in the UEFA pot with a qualification that CAF side can't be placed in a group with another CAF much like how they treated Serbia and Montenegro in 2006. The big question is if we have 4 groups of 4 how do they choose which confederations to pair together? I'm guessing CONCACAF gets AFC but it would be nice if they went by hemisphere...

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Let's assume that Italy passes Colombia in the World Cup rankings. This leaves the Top 7 nations as 6 UEFA and 1 CONMEBOL. Add in Brazil as host and you have a 6/2 split.

Let's also assume that New Zealand loses their Inter-Continental playoff against the 4th CONCACAF team.

That means that there are:
4 CONCACAF,
4 or 5 AFC,
5 CAF,
3 or 4 CONMEBOL, and
7 UEFA squads left to be put into pots of 8.

These numbers don't split nicely. Would they purposefully limit Pot A to 5 UEFA and 3 CONMEBOL? Even then, if CONMEBOL loses the playoff against AFC, then you're left with 4, 5, 5, and 2 to be split into two pots of 8. Again, not nice numbers.

That's a lot of assumptions. Also, you're assuming that a pot has to have 8 squads. My guess in your scenario is that they would do something similar to 2002.

 

[Craig P.]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

I'm telling you that's not how they do it anymore. As best as I can find, the 2014 world cup will be seeded the same way the 2010 world cup was...using the most recent FIFA Rankings (October).

It's got nothing to do with "how they do it" (which is however FIFA feels like doing it in any given year) and everything to do with whether FIFA will think that Colombia deserves to be a seed. If they don't, they'll find a way to make it not happen.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

It's got nothing to do with "how they do it" (which is however FIFA feels like doing it in any given year) and everything to do with whether FIFA will think that Colombia deserves to be a seed. If they don't, they'll find a way to make it not happen.

I know they are corrupt and all but I'm pretty sure its already decided how they will choose seeded teams for 2014. This isn't decided by smoke filled room anymore, the smoke filled room part is done.

 

[Craig P.]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

Compare that to the experience of countries that are on par with us in the FIFA rankings and have to trudge through the UEFA qualification route.

UEFA qualification isn't much of a "trudge", particularly not by comparison with CONCACAF.

The qualification groups are typically no more difficult than the hex, and often less difficult.

The only real issue with UEFA qualification is that their system isn't really designed to distill down to the most worthy teams by allowing a reasonable margin for error. It's designed to put everything on a couple of high stakes matches against the other contending team(s) and the rest on not !@#$ing up against a minnow. In fact, CONCACAF and CONMEBOL have the two best qualification systems going.

 

[Craig P.]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

I know they are corrupt and all but I'm pretty sure its already decided how they will choose seeded teams for 2014. This isn't decided by smoke filled room anymore, the smoke filled room part is done.

I beg to differ. If it wasn't about smoke filled rooms, they'd still be using the '02 or '06 seeding process.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

I beg to differ. If it wasn't about smoke filled rooms, they'd still be using the '02 or '06 seeding process.

I don't mean that smoke filled rooms don't make decisions, I just mean the decision has been made...I suppose in the grand scheme, that decision could be changed but that is left to be seen.

 

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

Edit: and the new kits aren't too shabby...sponsor could use some work:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/fo...tml?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

The extra blue on the sides is a bit jarring at first, but I guess you'd get used to it. I like the idea of the away jersey.

Edit: Sweet merciful crap, look at how bad Liverpool's away jerseys look!!!

 

[Craig P.]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

I don't mean that smoke filled rooms don't make decisions, I just mean the decision has been made...I suppose in the grand scheme, that decision could be changed but that is left to be seen.

Each of the last two World Cups, FIFA has changed the rules for seeding after the teams that were qualified were known (though in 2006, it didn't actually change the seeded teams). And the last time out, it sure looked like the main reason they did that was because they weren't happy about the results of the previously established seeding formula. My conclusion, then, is they'll set the formula for 2014 after the field is determined, doing their best to come up with something reasonable that gives the "right" set of seeds.

 

[jmh]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

UEFA qualification isn't much of a "trudge", particularly not by comparison with CONCACAF.

The qualification groups are typically no more difficult than the hex, and often less difficult.

I don't know if I buy that. There are more minnows in a typical UEFA group than there are in the Hex, I'd say, but you also need to finish in the top two out of five or six in UEFA, vs. in the top four of six in the Hex. Look at Group C - sure, Kazakhstan and the Faroe Islands are terrible, Austria and Sweden and Ireland are fighting to be runners-up to Germany and two out of three credible teams will be s.o.l., with the third facing a playoff against another credible team. I certainly wouldn't call it a "trudge" because the sheer number of matches is so much fewer (by the end of qualification Panama will have played 20 qualifying matches, for instance, as compared to 10 for the typical UEFA team, but a lot more good UEFA teams will miss out than good CONCACAF teams, which I think is what EODS was getting at.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

I don't know if I buy that. There are more minnows in a typical UEFA group than there are in the Hex, I'd say, but you also need to finish in the top two out of five or six in UEFA, vs. in the top four of six in the Hex. Look at Group C - sure, Kazakhstan and the Faroe Islands are terrible, Austria and Sweden and Ireland are fighting to be runners-up to Germany and two out of three credible teams will be s.o.l., with the third facing a playoff against another credible team. I certainly wouldn't call it a "trudge" because the sheer number of matches is so much fewer (by the end of qualification Panama will have played 20 qualifying matches, for instance, as compared to 10 for the typical UEFA team, but a lot more good UEFA teams will miss out than good CONCACAF teams, which I think is what EODS was getting at.

The difference between the CONCACAF Hex and a UEFA is the quality of teams from top to bottom is flat out better in the Hex. Yes Spain and France may be better than the US and Mexico but Jamaica, Honduras, and Panama are better than Georgia, Belarus, and Finland. Every now and then you'll get a group that's just stacked like Group C but it's usually easy to look at a UEFA group and figure out who's going to qualify. Plus Home Field Advantage has some real meaning in CONCACAF, even the US and Mexico have struggled in Jamaica, Costa Rica, Honduras etc. Even some of the top UEFA teams would struggle in places like those.

CONMEBOL is the toughest by far, * up one game at home and you could be toast. You can look and say "Ok Brazil, Argentina, and... umm... I dunno".

 

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

Here's where you have it wrong on UEFA (edit: except for jmh, who I just realized made this exact same point):

Each group has bottom feeders, but you've gotta win your **** group, because second gives you a 50/50 and third does nothing for you. Whereas at least half of the hex is getting in.

Tell me if you think Norway, Austria, Poland or any other of the better middle-tier European squads wouldn't wish that they just had to be better than any three of Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras and Jamaica instead of having to find a way to finish above Germany, Spain, Italy, etc. Because their only other recourse is a playoff (against a better team than what the AFC or OFC would throw at them) or praying that their Pot A draw is "only" Russia or Portugal.

 

[Craig P.]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

I don't know if I buy that. There are more minnows in a typical UEFA group than there are in the Hex, I'd say, but you also need to finish in the top two out of five or six in UEFA, vs. in the top four of six in the Hex.

Oh, it's harder to qualify, no question, but that wasn't what I was getting at, I was getting at the average quality of the group, which I believe to be lower in Europe than the Hex. Main reason being that CONCACAF pushes their minnows out in earlier rounds while UEFA keeps them around for cannon fodder. Sorry, my brevity obscured my point there.

Anyway... UEFA qualifying is more difficult and more nerve-wracking than CONCACAF, but much less of a trudge, and less reliable at putting the best teams through to the World Cup.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

I built a handy little "what if" calculator for the remaining CONCACEF games that lets you put in an outcome for a game and then scores the results. Most of my trial scenarios so far have the US and Costa Rica advancing and Honduras and Mexico fighting it out for 3rd and 4th, with Panama a game contender that just misses out.

If anyone wants a copy, just let me know through a post or through rep and I can email it to you.

It's a simplified version based on W L T and so it doesn't track goal differential. It does have all the remaining head-to-head matches so that you can't inadvertantly give a "W" to two teams who are playing against each other.

 

[jmh]

Re: World Soccer XXIII - "Pay" Up Pompey?

Anyway... UEFA qualifying is more difficult and more nerve-wracking than CONCACAF, but much less of a trudge, and less reliable at putting the best teams through to the World Cup.

This sounds about right.